3 ms·

Interesting, and (so far) well-sourced. You picked a good day to post here. For some reason, Sundays is always it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it on HN. Ev

Interesting, and (so far) well-sourced. You picked a good day to post here. For some reason, Sundays is always it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it on HN. Every week I see variations around the same theme. It's cool to have the topic covered with reduced scope (societies, not the planet at large), and in-depth. Which brings me to my questions. One, what is "The West"? Would the French Revolution count as a civilization-wide failure? The Bronze Age collapse? Sea Peoples? The Long March? The Hellenic Era ending? Perhaps this is explained elsewhere, but some clarification would be helpful. Two, it might be good to cover all of the "false positives" when it comes to predicting civilization collapse. It's been quite the cottage industry over the centuries. Romans were quite concerned with the lack of morals and corruption the Greeks brought them. Many believed that signaled the end of Rome. Why, some of the "new" Romans weren't even sleeping on the ground any more! They were using beds! Three, and I apologize for so many queries, but "collapse" or "failure", or whatever you're using could also use a bit of definition. The Western Roman Empire collapsed and failed, that much is obvious. But just when that occurred is much less clear. People in Europe thought of themselves as Romans long after modern historians view Rome as being gone. I believe there are a couple of other examples of unclear failures, where the people involved in the failure couldn't see what was happening right in front of them, but none come to mind right away. Good work. Look forward to seeing more of it!

elliekelly 6y ago
> You picked a good day to post here. For some reason, Sundays is always it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it on HN. I’ve noticed this too but I wasn’t sure if it was in my head/confirmation bias or an actual pattern. I wonder whether the Sunday Scaries could be to blame for the uptick in that sort of reading material.
- DanielBMarkham 6y ago
  Fascinating idea. I've noticed it for a couple of years or more now. I figured most readers of HN have also noticed it, so I thought I would throw it out there to see if my observation was shared or not. I know that people cycle through moods in their lives. I also know that people require some amount of drama in order to feel as if they have meaning (Even/especially people who say they don't like drama). Doomscrolling and the associated content promotion, curation, and aggregation probably tap into that primal need. The internet at scale and the associated Markov-chain-like content selection and promotion we're seeing is hacking the species in some very significant and unexplored ways. Between the folks completely in denial and those claiming that the end is near, there needs to be some real philosophy and science going on (I don't think either one by itself is going to help much since this is a completely new area of intellectual exploration) *(Reference to phrase "Sunday Scaries" for those who haven't seen it before: www.sunday-scaries.com/what-are-sunday-scaries )
sheefrex 6y ago
Thank you for this positive response and good questions. 1. I think what constitues the West is constantly changing. The historical base is Western Europe. If W. Europe and the US diverge in ideology over the next few decades (not necessarily a bad thing) then as a category the West will shrink back to the base. Possibly a bit larger if the EU stays intact or integrates further, as I hope it does. 2. I would define failure as a near complete and permanent loss of control by a society over itself and its internal territory. So the Bronze Age Collapse would definitely qualify, as some of those societies never rose again. But under this definition the French Revolution and the Long March would not qualify. The conquest of Greece by Rome could count, but the re-emergence of Greece in the Byzantine Empire complicates things. Some see the latter as a different culture -- I would need to read more myself before coming to a view on this. It's true that some thought of themselves Roman well into the 600s -- such as Gregory the Great, for instance. But they weren't in control anymore, so that would be a partial collapse under my definition (as the Eastern Roman Empire persisted)

elliekelly 6y ago

> You picked a good day to post here. For some reason, Sundays is always it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it on HN. I’ve noticed this too but I wasn’t sure if it was in my head/confirmation bias or an actual pattern. I wonder whether the Sunday Scaries could be to blame for the uptick in that sort of reading material.

DanielBMarkham 6y ago
Fascinating idea. I've noticed it for a couple of years or more now. I figured most readers of HN have also noticed it, so I thought I would throw it out there to see if my observation was shared or not. I know that people cycle through moods in their lives. I also know that people require some amount of drama in order to feel as if they have meaning (Even/especially people who say they don't like drama). Doomscrolling and the associated content promotion, curation, and aggregation probably tap into that primal need. The internet at scale and the associated Markov-chain-like content selection and promotion we're seeing is hacking the species in some very significant and unexplored ways. Between the folks completely in denial and those claiming that the end is near, there needs to be some real philosophy and science going on (I don't think either one by itself is going to help much since this is a completely new area of intellectual exploration) *(Reference to phrase "Sunday Scaries" for those who haven't seen it before: www.sunday-scaries.com/what-are-sunday-scaries )

sheefrex 6y ago

Thank you for this positive response and good questions. 1. I think what constitues the West is constantly changing. The historical base is Western Europe. If W. Europe and the US diverge in ideology over the next few decades (not necessarily a bad thing) then as a category the West will shrink back to the base. Possibly a bit larger if the EU stays intact or integrates further, as I hope it does. 2. I would define failure as a near complete and permanent loss of control by a society over itself and its internal territory. So the Bronze Age Collapse would definitely qualify, as some of those societies never rose again. But under this definition the French Revolution and the Long March would not qualify. The conquest of Greece by Rome could count, but the re-emergence of Greece in the Byzantine Empire complicates things. Some see the latter as a different culture -- I would need to read more myself before coming to a view on this. It's true that some thought of themselves Roman well into the 600s -- such as Gregory the Great, for instance. But they weren't in control anymore, so that would be a partial collapse under my definition (as the Eastern Roman Empire persisted)