4 ms·

The treatment of Keynes' post-WWI comments is an apologia that misses the deeper point. Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay, he misread

by yyyk 6y ago

The treatment of Keynes' post-WWI comments is an apologia that misses the deeper point. Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay, he misread the strategic situation. The French position was not merely motivated by vengeance. The Post-WWI situation was simple in a way yet strage. Germany was defeated, yet it remained the strongest country in continental Europe. Britain and France were bled dry, Russia was in chaos and the Western Front was mostly fought on French soil. This left the question of how to settle things so that Germany does not refight the war for the same old objectives. The French position was a Realist position - make Germany too weak to make trouble. The Keynes position was Idealist, but it needed one condition to be viable in any form: a defence alliance to prevent Germany from making trouble. Which was something that was probably politically impossible in the US, and I don't recall Keynes advocating for it. So his contribution was to help weaken one option that was politically workable without giving a good alternative; Eventually (years later) helping to lead to an arrangement that merely goaded Germany in the wrong direction. There was a need to ask how to reintegrate Germany, but this was not served well by ignoring the strategic situation.

082349872349872 6y ago
A hypothesis which I ran across but haven't yet had the time and inclination to back-of-the-envelope: had germany sought to peacefully outcompete the british empire, they might well have succeeded by mid-century, instead of suffering all the ill effects of 1914-1990 ("the short twentieth century").
- nickik 6y ago
  In capitalism there isn't really isn't a need for a 'winner', its not zero sum. Britain and Germany would have been both 100x better of to not fight any idiotic wars over strategically worthless land in the Balkans. Many people from both sides realized this but the German leadership sadly was of a more conservative mindset.
  - 082349872349872 6y ago
    Kissinger blames the entire slide into the Great War on blunder after blunder[1]. I was surprised to learn from Zweig's first-hand account how much Orwell's MiniTru was based on western behaviour during the Great War. https://ia801609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.176552/2015.176552.The-World-Of-Yesterday.pdf https://ia801609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.1... p.182 "German professors declared that Dante had been Germanic, the French that Beethoven had been a Belgian, intellectual culture was requisitioned without scruple from the enemy countries like grain and ore." [1] Among which: having remembered the iron fist but having dropped the velvet glove: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dropping_the_Pilot#/media/File:1890_Bismarcks_Ruecktritt.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dropping_the_Pilot#/media/File... 铁拳软包?
chrispeel 6y ago
> Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay So the Germans were able to pay? I don't pretend to be a historian, yet I've never heard the idea that Germany could pay. BTW, the Odd Lots had a show [1] about the book recently [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-07-12/studying-keynes-is-more-important-than-ever-podcast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-07-12/studying-key...
- QuesnayJr 6y ago
  Keynes' contention about the German ability to pay was and remains controversial: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economic_Consequences_of_the_Peace#Reception https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economic_Consequences_of_t...
- nickik 6y ago
  The standard story about Germany was actually massive spread and perpetuated by the Germans after WW1. Its often said that the victors write history, but in this case its actually contrarians in the winning nations and the losing nations that wrote history.
nickik 6y ago
I totally agree, Keynes was just one of many who made huge mistakes in the inter war years and in the WW1 resolution. > a defence alliance to prevent Germany from making trouble. Which was something that was probably politically impossible in the US, and I don't recall Keynes advocating for it. It was actually not impossible. If you don't take the standard US history crap about how 'isolationist' are the worst thing and responsible for all bad things, its actually pretty clear that they could have gotten the WW1 resolution threw congress. Yes there were some isolationists but that's not why all the treaties failed in the US congress. This talk is very good on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTBI86s0oSQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTBI86s0oSQ
- yyyk 6y ago
  Thanks! the talk is quite enlightening. So perhaps an alliance wasn't politically impossible. Wilson played with that (never knew that) and there was some Republican support. Alas. There's a good chance WW2 wouldn't have happened at all.
woodandsteel 6y ago
Your point that the French were taking the Realist position re: the German problem makes a whole lot of sense to me. But what about Keynes idea that Europe as a whole was in economic ruin and it was necessary to rebuild it with economic aid or it would lead to political disaster. He seems to be to have been right about that.
- yyyk 6y ago
  Frankly, this part of the article reads like a bit of a distraction - the author is friendly, and since Keynes' original position is becoming hard to defend, he looks at a different matter which is simply not important compared to the elephant in the room. Everyone at the time including Keynes himself realized the German issue was the primary issue. The petty authoritarianism that affected E. Europe in the interwar years was a mild headache compared to the nightmare that followed. Economic aid might have helped with minority rights in the new countries, but I don't think it would have done much beyond that. We would still have had the Great Depression, and we would have gotten the political disaster then.
  - woodandsteel 6y ago
    >We would still have had the Great Depression, and we would have gotten the political disaster then. I hate to say it, but I have to admit you are probably right.

by yyyk 6y ago

082349872349872 6y ago

A hypothesis which I ran across but haven't yet had the time and inclination to back-of-the-envelope: had germany sought to peacefully outcompete the british empire, they might well have succeeded by mid-century, instead of suffering all the ill effects of 1914-1990 ("the short twentieth century").

nickik 6y ago
In capitalism there isn't really isn't a need for a 'winner', its not zero sum. Britain and Germany would have been both 100x better of to not fight any idiotic wars over strategically worthless land in the Balkans. Many people from both sides realized this but the German leadership sadly was of a more conservative mindset.
- 082349872349872 6y ago
  Kissinger blames the entire slide into the Great War on blunder after blunder[1]. I was surprised to learn from Zweig's first-hand account how much Orwell's MiniTru was based on western behaviour during the Great War. https://ia801609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.176552/2015.176552.The-World-Of-Yesterday.pdf https://ia801609.us.archive.org/21/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.1... p.182 "German professors declared that Dante had been Germanic, the French that Beethoven had been a Belgian, intellectual culture was requisitioned without scruple from the enemy countries like grain and ore." [1] Among which: having remembered the iron fist but having dropped the velvet glove: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dropping_the_Pilot#/media/File:1890_Bismarcks_Ruecktritt.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dropping_the_Pilot#/media/File... 铁拳软包?

chrispeel 6y ago

> Keynes was not merely wrong about the German ability to pay So the Germans were able to pay? I don't pretend to be a historian, yet I've never heard the idea that Germany could pay. BTW, the Odd Lots had a show [1] about the book recently [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-07-12/studying-keynes-is-more-important-than-ever-podcast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-07-12/studying-key...

QuesnayJr 6y ago
Keynes' contention about the German ability to pay was and remains controversial: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economic_Consequences_of_the_Peace#Reception https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economic_Consequences_of_t...
nickik 6y ago
The standard story about Germany was actually massive spread and perpetuated by the Germans after WW1. Its often said that the victors write history, but in this case its actually contrarians in the winning nations and the losing nations that wrote history.

nickik 6y ago

I totally agree, Keynes was just one of many who made huge mistakes in the inter war years and in the WW1 resolution. > a defence alliance to prevent Germany from making trouble. Which was something that was probably politically impossible in the US, and I don't recall Keynes advocating for it. It was actually not impossible. If you don't take the standard US history crap about how 'isolationist' are the worst thing and responsible for all bad things, its actually pretty clear that they could have gotten the WW1 resolution threw congress. Yes there were some isolationists but that's not why all the treaties failed in the US congress. This talk is very good on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTBI86s0oSQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTBI86s0oSQ

yyyk 6y ago
Thanks! the talk is quite enlightening. So perhaps an alliance wasn't politically impossible. Wilson played with that (never knew that) and there was some Republican support. Alas. There's a good chance WW2 wouldn't have happened at all.

woodandsteel 6y ago

Your point that the French were taking the Realist position re: the German problem makes a whole lot of sense to me. But what about Keynes idea that Europe as a whole was in economic ruin and it was necessary to rebuild it with economic aid or it would lead to political disaster. He seems to be to have been right about that.

yyyk 6y ago
Frankly, this part of the article reads like a bit of a distraction - the author is friendly, and since Keynes' original position is becoming hard to defend, he looks at a different matter which is simply not important compared to the elephant in the room. Everyone at the time including Keynes himself realized the German issue was the primary issue. The petty authoritarianism that affected E. Europe in the interwar years was a mild headache compared to the nightmare that followed. Economic aid might have helped with minority rights in the new countries, but I don't think it would have done much beyond that. We would still have had the Great Depression, and we would have gotten the political disaster then.
- woodandsteel 6y ago
  >We would still have had the Great Depression, and we would have gotten the political disaster then. I hate to say it, but I have to admit you are probably right.