I agree that this would be an interesting problem, except that it assumes the response a reasoned trade-off. We are observing the handful of leaders who decided

I agree that this would be an interesting problem, except that it assumes the response a reasoned trade-off. We are observing the handful of leaders who decided to kill grandma for money winding up with a worse economic situation than the leaders that who sensibly. Certainly this was based on a callous disregard for people's lives, but it might not look that way in the recovery data since they didn't get what they paid for. If you want to pretend the likes of Bolsonaro and Trump and Lukashenko are behaving reasonably, that would mean they are putting a negative value on human life. I doubt even the modern wave of authoritarians are quite that bad.