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> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade. thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predic
by graham_paul 6y ago
> Given the latest developments, I would put the odds at fifty-fifty within the next decade.
thing is technological development is not linear, you can't predict future development based on the last n decades. You can't assume an AI winter is not coming because it most likely is
- staticassertion 6y ago> because it most likely is Is this not you making a prediction, the very sentence after saying one can not predict the future?
- perl4ever 6y agoSaying an AI winter is coming isn't saying how long it will be for or what the magnitude will be.
- staticassertion 6y agoOK, so what is it saying?
- perl4ever 6y agoThat progress won't be steady and predictable.
- graham_paul 6y agoNo. This is like saying that if today is not raining, a rainy day is coming
- drcode 6y agoI neither claimed tech development was linear, nor am I basing future AI progress on the rate of progress in the last decades. I am basing future AI progress on what AI can do in July of 2020, which I believe already represents substantial progress towards that goal.
- mcilai 6y ago> because it most likely is "Ark estimates that Deep Learning has created $1 trillion in market value so far. " -- we might be headed towards a warm winter (from https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/01/ark-invests-big-five-technologies-in-2020-will-be-worth-multiple-trillions-around-2030.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/01/ark-invests-big-five-t...)
- graham_paul 6y agoValue is there until it isn't. A lot of the value here comes from its potential rather than its current use