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How to bet on the bubble? (with list of 2010/11 YC startup hosting providers)

1 points by gpjt 16y ago

kls 16y ago
I am sorry but this article gets it all wrong, while we may be in a bubble the reasons for choosing AWS are obvious and the reason startups are choosing are even more obvious. Startups have not technical debt and start from a clean slate, AWS and other cloud providers, for the first time allow companies whose focus is software, the ability to offload infrastructure to an organization that can provide first class service at a manageable cost. Other organizations will slowly follow suite but it will be the startups that hone these systems as they are naturally the early adopters. I personally would never consider owning my own infrastructure again, I just cant provide the level of maturity that Amazon or others can at the price they do it at. Bubble or no bubble AWS provides some clear cut business advantages. Ignoring them does not prove that a bubble exists.
- gpjt 16y ago
  Hi there -- article author here. Not sure why what you say (which is correct as far as it goes) makes the article wrong. All I said was that AWS is popular among startups (with proof points), but buying Amazon stock is a poor way to capitalise on that because AWS is a small part of their business.
  - kls 16y ago
    I apologize if that was not the message that you where trying to convey and I did get the latter point out of it, but I also got the inference out of the article that because all these startups use AWS there is a bubble. It may not have been your intent but it does seem to imply it.
    - gpjt 16y ago
      Interesting, I don't get that even on rereading -- but yup, you're certainly right that that would be a crazy thing to allege :-) I actually do think that there is a bubble, but that's more to do with crazy valuations like the recent Color.com investment than anything to do with AWS.
      - kls 16y ago
        My interpretations are probably wrong more than they are right so take it with a grain of salt. It just seemed to me to infer that. I think there is a bubble as well, but this one is going to last a long time. The fact of the mater is we have inflated everything else and popped it so now the only thing we can do is re-inflate tech which has to stay inflated for some years to come until the real estate and stock bubbles are forgotten then we can again shift into them.
        gpjt 16y ago
        You may be right. People were talking about a bubble for several years back in the late 90s before it finally burst in 2000, so there's no reason to assume this one will be any faster. That's actually why I was looking at investing in Amazon AWS; I don't have enough money to invest in startups, but I was hoping that I could buy some stock in something that would grow as startups do; the old metaphor of buying the company that sells shovels to gold prospectors. That's why I was a bit disappointed that AWS is such a small part of Amazon's service, because it meant that I couldn't use them that way -- and because they're such a massively dominant player in the hosting market, there seemed to be little point in investing in (eg.) Rackspace instead. Still, my investment track record is kind of spotty, so I may well be totally wrong with that strategy anyway.
        kls 16y ago
        If you want to invest in this bubble, commodities is where it is at, more direct and they are the only other item left that had not been hyper inflated, the trick as with all bubbles is to time your exit. Find a commodity, any commodity that has not already hyper inflated and get it, it will inflate, the commodities pop is going to be worse than any of the bubbles before them.

1 points by gpjt 16y ago

kls 16y ago

I am sorry but this article gets it all wrong, while we may be in a bubble the reasons for choosing AWS are obvious and the reason startups are choosing are even more obvious. Startups have not technical debt and start from a clean slate, AWS and other cloud providers, for the first time allow companies whose focus is software, the ability to offload infrastructure to an organization that can provide first class service at a manageable cost. Other organizations will slowly follow suite but it will be the startups that hone these systems as they are naturally the early adopters. I personally would never consider owning my own infrastructure again, I just cant provide the level of maturity that Amazon or others can at the price they do it at. Bubble or no bubble AWS provides some clear cut business advantages. Ignoring them does not prove that a bubble exists.

gpjt 16y ago
Hi there -- article author here. Not sure why what you say (which is correct as far as it goes) makes the article wrong. All I said was that AWS is popular among startups (with proof points), but buying Amazon stock is a poor way to capitalise on that because AWS is a small part of their business.
- kls 16y ago
  I apologize if that was not the message that you where trying to convey and I did get the latter point out of it, but I also got the inference out of the article that because all these startups use AWS there is a bubble. It may not have been your intent but it does seem to imply it.
  - gpjt 16y ago
    Interesting, I don't get that even on rereading -- but yup, you're certainly right that that would be a crazy thing to allege :-) I actually do think that there is a bubble, but that's more to do with crazy valuations like the recent Color.com investment than anything to do with AWS.
    - kls 16y ago
      My interpretations are probably wrong more than they are right so take it with a grain of salt. It just seemed to me to infer that. I think there is a bubble as well, but this one is going to last a long time. The fact of the mater is we have inflated everything else and popped it so now the only thing we can do is re-inflate tech which has to stay inflated for some years to come until the real estate and stock bubbles are forgotten then we can again shift into them.
      - gpjt 16y ago
        You may be right. People were talking about a bubble for several years back in the late 90s before it finally burst in 2000, so there's no reason to assume this one will be any faster. That's actually why I was looking at investing in Amazon AWS; I don't have enough money to invest in startups, but I was hoping that I could buy some stock in something that would grow as startups do; the old metaphor of buying the company that sells shovels to gold prospectors. That's why I was a bit disappointed that AWS is such a small part of Amazon's service, because it meant that I couldn't use them that way -- and because they're such a massively dominant player in the hosting market, there seemed to be little point in investing in (eg.) Rackspace instead. Still, my investment track record is kind of spotty, so I may well be totally wrong with that strategy anyway.
        kls 16y ago
        If you want to invest in this bubble, commodities is where it is at, more direct and they are the only other item left that had not been hyper inflated, the trick as with all bubbles is to time your exit. Find a commodity, any commodity that has not already hyper inflated and get it, it will inflate, the commodities pop is going to be worse than any of the bubbles before them.