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This sounds like a well-thought out reply; that's bad, because it is wrong. > Indeed, the money supply in the bitcoin market increases steadily over time, Thi
by firethief 16y ago
This sounds like a well-thought out reply; that's bad, because it is wrong.
> Indeed, the money supply in the bitcoin market increases steadily over time,
This is partially correct - the money supply increases asymptotically; the deflation eventually resulting from this may become a problem in the future.
> this should be inflationary, causing the value of BTC to fall.
I have a couple of issues with this statement:
1. the value of a currency is usually most meaningful relative to another currency; BTC is not unique in having a money supply that increases over time.
The current annual rate of increase of the BTC money supply is about 7.57%. The rate of increase of the USD M0 money supply is around 4.50% (I am having trouble finding the exact value).
2. money supply alone does not determine the true value of a currency - the size of the economy (amount of goods and services purchasable with that currency) is also a factor, among other things.
It seems to me a reasonable assumption that, given how green BTC is (created in 2009), the size of the BTC economy is increasing substantially faster than the size of the USD. If this is the case, BTC's increasing market size is probably greater than its increasing money supply, relative to the USD - quite possibly enough to justify its increase in value, by my estimates.
EDIT: the Bitcoin M0 increase rate is currently 50%, not 7.57% - this is an important difference, and it supports your statement that the value of Bitcoins is quite speculative. However, I stand by my reasoning that it is less speculative than you claim.