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It's correct to say "We're not sure". However, if you demand hard proof before taking any significant action, that's the same thing as demanding that no signif
by jmull 6y ago
It's correct to say "We're not sure".
However, if you demand hard proof before taking any significant action, that's the same thing as demanding that no significant action be taken.
That's a very difficult position to sustain. Not to mention, doing nothing in the face of a huge and deadly pandemic is a very significant action, which you'd be taking without hard evidence.
The reality is, we have to take action and don't have the luxury of time to ensure our decisions are absolutely correct. We need to marshal the evidence we have, have our best experts extrapolate what we don't know and take our best guess as to the most effective course of actions. Of course, one set of actions we can take is to initiate research to gather more evidence and change course in response -- prioritizing things based on level of impact and time/resources it takes to gather the information.
> You're better than this HN.
Making decent decisions in the face of imperfect information is something everyone should try to learn, though it is hard to do well.
- tchaffee 6y ago> However, if you demand hard proof before taking any significant action, that's the same thing as demanding that no significant action be taken. We do have enough hard evidence of many things to take action. And we have seen those actions result in positive outcomes. My gripe is about the many hot takes presented in this thread about what action we should take based on way more guessing than is needed and then presented as almost fact. It sounds like we both agree we "need to marshal the evidence we have, have our best experts extrapolate what we don't know and take our best guess as to the most effective course of actions".