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Whatever they (Vlad) are going to do, they have a closing window to do it in. Russia's population is expected to fall to ~130 million by 2050 [0]. The dual upc

Whatever they (Vlad) are going to do, they have a closing window to do it in. Russia's population is expected to fall to ~130 million by 2050 [0]. The dual upcoming hits of reduced fuel purchasing and climate change are not going to affect Russia well. Their petrorubles are not likely to maintain a punch in a solar/wind/etc world. And as the temperate zones move towards the poles, with the grain belts tagging along, all of Russia's neighbors are likely to look at that unmanned land in a more hungry way. Their southernly neighbors of India and China are still growing in population to ~3B combined in 2050, let alone all the other countries. Whatever balance there is now will change with a hungrier and hotter populace. In some ways, these issues with Donny and Boris are amazing feats of engineering. But they are only delaying the inevitable. Whatever they (Vlad) are planning on doing, I don't see how they get out of this hole. Sure, they bought time and space to move, but that time is limited. The next election in the US is likely to reveal more of their (Vlad's) hand. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

koheripbal 6y ago
On one hand, you're saying their land is going to be more valuable - and then on the other you're saying their land is going to suffer under climate change. Your analysis seems very politically motivated, rather than objectively looking at probable outcomes. If anything, more fertile land will drive immigration, not invasion, and help solve their demographic problems.
- Balgair 6y ago
  My apologies for being unclear. No, the land may become more valuable as the grain belts and people migrate poleward. Land to the south will become less valuable and hotter. The southern neighbors are gaining greatly in population, while Russia is loosing population. The current Russian actions (Vlad's) do not seem to indicate welcoming immigrants or other diverse people (Chechnya, hyper complicated, yes, but still). Russia does have a long history of multi-ethnic tension and release though. I'd hope that they (Vlad) welcome the climate refugees, but such integration is likely to be very difficult, as is usual. A 'Roman' approach may be good to alleviate the strife, where in the pre-Gothic invasions, the Roman M.O. was to take the younger immigrant men into the legions, separate the clans/tribes across the empire to tie allegiance to their neighbors and Rome, and then in about three generations the grandchildren would run the empire. Unfortunately for Russia, that takes ~60-80 years, so about 2080-2100, well past the issues of 2050.

koheripbal 6y ago

On one hand, you're saying their land is going to be more valuable - and then on the other you're saying their land is going to suffer under climate change. Your analysis seems very politically motivated, rather than objectively looking at probable outcomes. If anything, more fertile land will drive immigration, not invasion, and help solve their demographic problems.

Balgair 6y ago
My apologies for being unclear. No, the land may become more valuable as the grain belts and people migrate poleward. Land to the south will become less valuable and hotter. The southern neighbors are gaining greatly in population, while Russia is loosing population. The current Russian actions (Vlad's) do not seem to indicate welcoming immigrants or other diverse people (Chechnya, hyper complicated, yes, but still). Russia does have a long history of multi-ethnic tension and release though. I'd hope that they (Vlad) welcome the climate refugees, but such integration is likely to be very difficult, as is usual. A 'Roman' approach may be good to alleviate the strife, where in the pre-Gothic invasions, the Roman M.O. was to take the younger immigrant men into the legions, separate the clans/tribes across the empire to tie allegiance to their neighbors and Rome, and then in about three generations the grandchildren would run the empire. Unfortunately for Russia, that takes ~60-80 years, so about 2080-2100, well past the issues of 2050.