4 ms·

Living density doesn’t really matter. The virus spreads in indoor common areas like supermarkets, bars, restaurants, etc. These are just as dense in rural areas

by jl2718 6y ago

Living density doesn’t really matter. The virus spreads in indoor common areas like supermarkets, bars, restaurants, etc. These are just as dense in rural areas, maybe more due to lack of delivery.

jerkstate 6y ago
maybe, but if you can't go out (at least not very much) having separate rooms for everyone to go to, space for hobbies, and perhaps a yard to stretch out in becomes very valuable. Also, in suburban and rural areas, private car transportation is much more common where in the city cars are an expensive luxury, so in cities your transportation is an added virus transmission risk. The NYC subway was a huge factor in the virus explosion there, for example.
- infinite_beam 6y ago
  [NBER Working Paper No. 27021] The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City https://www.nber.org/papers/w27021.pdf https://www.nber.org/papers/w27021.pdf
Nasrudith 6y ago
Less urban areas have "less to lose" in value from closures than more urbanizd ones. If they have less to no ammenitity proximity as a source of value. Put simply you weren't living in the country for the broadway theater. That changes some relative values even ignoring the physical distance from work losing relevance.
tinyhouse 6y ago
People are not moving because they think it's safer. They leave because it's easier to live, especially with family, in a single family house on a large lot when everyone is stuck at home. What's the point living in a small space in the city (and paying a lot of money for it) when you work from home and can't even sit at a cafe. For me the commute was always the biggest reason to stay near the city.
topkai22 6y ago
In my experience, people in lower density areas leave thier house less than people in major urban centers. Additionally, the densities aren't the same even indoors. Again ancedotally, but the average number of people packed into a cheap restaurant in the city versus the deep suburbs or smaller town averages way less.
- coding123 6y ago
  However, due to how Covid works, a grocery store that serves 1000 rural people is still pretty busy in a given day. The air itself, in the store, is pretty much giving people COVID. I've pretty much been going to the store once a week since this started. I wear nitrile gloves and an n95 mask. I am pretty sure I caught it two weeks ago and my symptoms are just now flaring. I know it's covid because that's pretty much the only thing you're going to catch with all that protection right now. The rural county and city I am in is surging in cases right now, and very few people are wearing masks. I've really questioned my citizenship in the US for the last few months. I don't think it's that I never belonged in the US. I think that people have changed so much that politically they are willing to do harm to others because they don't want to wear a mask. I mean that would not have happened in the 50s - probably everyone would have worn a mask if the government asked them to. Which is ironic because many of the people playing into this masklessness are older. I'm actually quite confused lately about the way people in the world justify the things that they do. Maybe it's just the US?
  - entitydc 6y ago
    For whatever it’s worth, anti mask movements were popular during the last global pandemic in 1918, so I don’t think it’s that people have changed. https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/15/the-anti-mask-league-of-1919-the-cultural-battle-of-an-enduring-pandemic/ https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/15/the-anti-mask-league-o...
    - coding123 6y ago
      Wow, thanks for that article. I wasn't aware. I guess it's just people then, not exactly related to the current political climate then, really. It's quite amazing how similar the pictures in 1918 look to today w/respect to mask wearing. I'm curious if anti-mask sentiment is more of an American thing or worldwide...
adrianN 6y ago
In Germany at least there is a correlation between density and cases per capita. How is it in the US?
- OldHand2018 6y ago
  Yes, there is a correlation, but it is much more nuanced than that (which is probably true in Germany as well). Take a look at the dashboard where I live: https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-dashboard.html https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-da... On the left-hand side, switch to the "Weekly by Zip" view and on the right-hand side a map of the city will show up. The really dense parts of the city are along the eastern edge, from the middle and going north. This is where all the high-rise buildings are. If you look at the western part of the city, from the middle and going south, this is pretty low density. The main difference is dense parts of the city do not have crowded living spaces, while the less dense parts have a lot of overcrowding.
robrenaud 6y ago
Pre-covid, subways were way more packed than supermarkets, restaurants, and even pretty packed bars. Covid made Manhattan much less livable.
clairity 6y ago
folks are erroneously using density as a proxy for the primary transmission vector, which is prolonged, varied, and direct exposure to others' respiratory exhaust (understandable, but still erroneous). that happens primarily face-to-face, in close proximity, for many continuous minutes, not walking around a grocery store or sitting in a restaurant. bars/clubs are different because they're primarily spaces for guard-lowering behaviors (drinking, dancing, etc.), which also lowers risk mitigation practices against infection. this misperception of risk is what leads us to poorly placed faith in lockdowns, rather than the more sensible "distance, and when you can't mask" rule that has (nearly) all the benefits and (nearly) none of the massive downsides.
- zip1234 6y ago
  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?xScale=linear&yScale=linear https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po... You are right. Population density appears to not really matter. Mask wearing and distancing appear to matter much much more.
  - clairity 6y ago
    thanks for the data support. it's really about getting people to take sensible precautions (by making them easy and reasonable), not going overboard and inducing a backlash due to disregarding relevant issues and consequences.
- icebraining 6y ago
  Lockdowns is how you get people to stop meeting face-to-face in close proximity. Many simply won't otherwise.

by jl2718 6y ago

Living density doesn’t really matter. The virus spreads in indoor common areas like supermarkets, bars, restaurants, etc. These are just as dense in rural areas, maybe more due to lack of delivery.

jerkstate 6y ago

maybe, but if you can't go out (at least not very much) having separate rooms for everyone to go to, space for hobbies, and perhaps a yard to stretch out in becomes very valuable. Also, in suburban and rural areas, private car transportation is much more common where in the city cars are an expensive luxury, so in cities your transportation is an added virus transmission risk. The NYC subway was a huge factor in the virus explosion there, for example.

infinite_beam 6y ago
[NBER Working Paper No. 27021] The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City https://www.nber.org/papers/w27021.pdf https://www.nber.org/papers/w27021.pdf

Nasrudith 6y ago

Less urban areas have "less to lose" in value from closures than more urbanizd ones. If they have less to no ammenitity proximity as a source of value. Put simply you weren't living in the country for the broadway theater. That changes some relative values even ignoring the physical distance from work losing relevance.

tinyhouse 6y ago

People are not moving because they think it's safer. They leave because it's easier to live, especially with family, in a single family house on a large lot when everyone is stuck at home. What's the point living in a small space in the city (and paying a lot of money for it) when you work from home and can't even sit at a cafe. For me the commute was always the biggest reason to stay near the city.

topkai22 6y ago

In my experience, people in lower density areas leave thier house less than people in major urban centers. Additionally, the densities aren't the same even indoors. Again ancedotally, but the average number of people packed into a cheap restaurant in the city versus the deep suburbs or smaller town averages way less.

coding123 6y ago
However, due to how Covid works, a grocery store that serves 1000 rural people is still pretty busy in a given day. The air itself, in the store, is pretty much giving people COVID. I've pretty much been going to the store once a week since this started. I wear nitrile gloves and an n95 mask. I am pretty sure I caught it two weeks ago and my symptoms are just now flaring. I know it's covid because that's pretty much the only thing you're going to catch with all that protection right now. The rural county and city I am in is surging in cases right now, and very few people are wearing masks. I've really questioned my citizenship in the US for the last few months. I don't think it's that I never belonged in the US. I think that people have changed so much that politically they are willing to do harm to others because they don't want to wear a mask. I mean that would not have happened in the 50s - probably everyone would have worn a mask if the government asked them to. Which is ironic because many of the people playing into this masklessness are older. I'm actually quite confused lately about the way people in the world justify the things that they do. Maybe it's just the US?
- entitydc 6y ago
  For whatever it’s worth, anti mask movements were popular during the last global pandemic in 1918, so I don’t think it’s that people have changed. https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/15/the-anti-mask-league-of-1919-the-cultural-battle-of-an-enduring-pandemic/ https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/15/the-anti-mask-league-o...
  - coding123 6y ago
    Wow, thanks for that article. I wasn't aware. I guess it's just people then, not exactly related to the current political climate then, really. It's quite amazing how similar the pictures in 1918 look to today w/respect to mask wearing. I'm curious if anti-mask sentiment is more of an American thing or worldwide...

adrianN 6y ago

In Germany at least there is a correlation between density and cases per capita. How is it in the US?

OldHand2018 6y ago
Yes, there is a correlation, but it is much more nuanced than that (which is probably true in Germany as well). Take a look at the dashboard where I live: https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-dashboard.html https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/covid-da... On the left-hand side, switch to the "Weekly by Zip" view and on the right-hand side a map of the city will show up. The really dense parts of the city are along the eastern edge, from the middle and going north. This is where all the high-rise buildings are. If you look at the western part of the city, from the middle and going south, this is pretty low density. The main difference is dense parts of the city do not have crowded living spaces, while the less dense parts have a lot of overcrowding.

robrenaud 6y ago

Pre-covid, subways were way more packed than supermarkets, restaurants, and even pretty packed bars. Covid made Manhattan much less livable.

clairity 6y ago

folks are erroneously using density as a proxy for the primary transmission vector, which is prolonged, varied, and direct exposure to others' respiratory exhaust (understandable, but still erroneous). that happens primarily face-to-face, in close proximity, for many continuous minutes, not walking around a grocery store or sitting in a restaurant. bars/clubs are different because they're primarily spaces for guard-lowering behaviors (drinking, dancing, etc.), which also lowers risk mitigation practices against infection. this misperception of risk is what leads us to poorly placed faith in lockdowns, rather than the more sensible "distance, and when you can't mask" rule that has (nearly) all the benefits and (nearly) none of the massive downsides.

zip1234 6y ago
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?xScale=linear&yScale=linear https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po... You are right. Population density appears to not really matter. Mask wearing and distancing appear to matter much much more.
- clairity 6y ago
  thanks for the data support. it's really about getting people to take sensible precautions (by making them easy and reasonable), not going overboard and inducing a backlash due to disregarding relevant issues and consequences.
icebraining 6y ago
Lockdowns is how you get people to stop meeting face-to-face in close proximity. Many simply won't otherwise.