5 ms·

> so people are leaving the cities where they appear to have careers/work/friends and are heading to the suburbs during lockdown because of the virus situation,

> so people are leaving the cities where they appear to have careers/work/friends and are heading to the suburbs during lockdown because of the virus situation, while businesses are laying off and contracting/shrinking/making losses and are going out of business? This is completely anecdotal, but I know a few people who have left urban centers recently to go to suburbs. And I know a bunch who are looking to. Over time this might even out... i'm sure many people, particularly those with young children, have been considering the move and now they have an impetus.

dialamac 6y ago
But this is nothing new. Better public schools, lower crime, lower taxes (or at least better perceived value), an improved quality of life for a particular lifestyle have always been motivators. It’s harder to establish a career in the suburbs, but relatively easier to maintain one. COVID has probably made a measurable impact, but it’s very easy to measure small effects too. Whether much has changed long term, I am doubtful.
- mobilefriendly 6y ago
  The new factor that might tip things is more acceptance of remote work.
  - tudelo 6y ago
    Yeah, especially for the more senior folks who can easily afford to build or buy a house and also have the advantage of being able to ensure they can work remotely for the near to medium future (especially with some companies shifting to remote for higher level IC's and some shifting to remote first entirely).
- colmvp 6y ago
  I currently live downtown. Life is semi-normal, but most of the reasons why I'd want to live down here are disrupted. Concert halls are closed indefinitely. Meetup.com groups are now all remote. Restaurants will soon allow people to eat inside but will be operating at limited capacity and who knows what it will be like in the Fall/Winter. And now there's way more homeless people living in nearby parks/streets because of the economy/Covid-19 related limits on shelters. Shops are also closing by the week. You know what I envy from all my friends? Backyards. Just being able to step outside instead of having to don a mask, wait for an semi-empty elevator and walk through public spaces is a big, big advantage. That and having a bigger space for working from home. I'm planning to move to the suburbs over the next year or so in a large part because of how Covid-19 changed the downtown core.
lallysingh 6y ago
More anecdotes: I live in the suburbs. Both my neighbors have sold due to suddenly-rising demand in housing. There are for-sale signs everywhere. The people who have already moved in are all from the city (NYC). Coworkers who live in the city are finding it much less workable to live there when they have to stay in small apartments. You can buy a nice, large house in a nice town for the money you spend on renting a small apartment in the city. When the lease is about up, you can close on a house rather quickly (I sold my last house in NJ in 3 days, closed on the new one as fast as both us and the seller could move our stuff) and suddenly be able to walk around and have a backyard. That kind of fairly-quick life improvement is important. Also, now people will worry about "the next virus" when they're in the city. The protests outside their doors didn't help. With employers suddenly becoming rather adept at work-from-home and remote work, the work benefits of stay in the cities have diminished permanently.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Anecdotally I know a number of folks who have either moved out of or are seriously contemplating of moving out of city apartments and purchasing property in relatively rural locations--including people for whom this isn't something they even contemplated previously.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    It makes sense. The only reason to live in an urban area is for the social benefits and activities. A small apartment quickly feels like a prison cell when you can't go anywhere or do anything.
bluGill 6y ago
Until urban centers decide to become more family friendly this will continue. Bad inner city schools, traffic, and no wonder families want to get away. There are plenty of counter examples (mostly Asia). It isn't like this cannot be fixed, but without families nobody as arguing for family friendly things and so people move out when the kids come.
- QuesnayJr 6y ago
  There was a 30 year shift into the cities, so family-friendliness can't explain the trend. This is mostly likely a consequence of the virus.
  - frankc 6y ago
    I agree its a recent phenomenon but it's not just the virus. I was born in raised in the city. I remember the bad old days. I see what's happening with the far left and their want to gut the NYPD and I foresee it backsliding into the bad old days. Crime is already ticking up but it's too early to point at that and say it's happening. It's a longer term projection I am making.
    - chrisco255 6y ago
      It will unfortunately get worse with all the people and money pulling out of downtown if this continues.
  - madengr 6y ago
    and rioting.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Probably more like 20 years. Boston, for example, was still losing population until the late 90s. (And the last major tech employer at the time also left during the 90s.) Demographically, you were mostly seeing college-educated young people make up the net inflow over the past 20 years. I suspect that layered over the virus effects, you probably had some demographics who were on the edge of moving anyway--which is one reason that so many of them pulled the trigger fairly quickly.

dialamac 6y ago

But this is nothing new. Better public schools, lower crime, lower taxes (or at least better perceived value), an improved quality of life for a particular lifestyle have always been motivators. It’s harder to establish a career in the suburbs, but relatively easier to maintain one. COVID has probably made a measurable impact, but it’s very easy to measure small effects too. Whether much has changed long term, I am doubtful.

mobilefriendly 6y ago
The new factor that might tip things is more acceptance of remote work.
- tudelo 6y ago
  Yeah, especially for the more senior folks who can easily afford to build or buy a house and also have the advantage of being able to ensure they can work remotely for the near to medium future (especially with some companies shifting to remote for higher level IC's and some shifting to remote first entirely).
colmvp 6y ago
I currently live downtown. Life is semi-normal, but most of the reasons why I'd want to live down here are disrupted. Concert halls are closed indefinitely. Meetup.com groups are now all remote. Restaurants will soon allow people to eat inside but will be operating at limited capacity and who knows what it will be like in the Fall/Winter. And now there's way more homeless people living in nearby parks/streets because of the economy/Covid-19 related limits on shelters. Shops are also closing by the week. You know what I envy from all my friends? Backyards. Just being able to step outside instead of having to don a mask, wait for an semi-empty elevator and walk through public spaces is a big, big advantage. That and having a bigger space for working from home. I'm planning to move to the suburbs over the next year or so in a large part because of how Covid-19 changed the downtown core.

lallysingh 6y ago

More anecdotes: I live in the suburbs. Both my neighbors have sold due to suddenly-rising demand in housing. There are for-sale signs everywhere. The people who have already moved in are all from the city (NYC). Coworkers who live in the city are finding it much less workable to live there when they have to stay in small apartments. You can buy a nice, large house in a nice town for the money you spend on renting a small apartment in the city. When the lease is about up, you can close on a house rather quickly (I sold my last house in NJ in 3 days, closed on the new one as fast as both us and the seller could move our stuff) and suddenly be able to walk around and have a backyard. That kind of fairly-quick life improvement is important. Also, now people will worry about "the next virus" when they're in the city. The protests outside their doors didn't help. With employers suddenly becoming rather adept at work-from-home and remote work, the work benefits of stay in the cities have diminished permanently.

ghaff 6y ago
Anecdotally I know a number of folks who have either moved out of or are seriously contemplating of moving out of city apartments and purchasing property in relatively rural locations--including people for whom this isn't something they even contemplated previously.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  It makes sense. The only reason to live in an urban area is for the social benefits and activities. A small apartment quickly feels like a prison cell when you can't go anywhere or do anything.

bluGill 6y ago

Until urban centers decide to become more family friendly this will continue. Bad inner city schools, traffic, and no wonder families want to get away. There are plenty of counter examples (mostly Asia). It isn't like this cannot be fixed, but without families nobody as arguing for family friendly things and so people move out when the kids come.

QuesnayJr 6y ago
There was a 30 year shift into the cities, so family-friendliness can't explain the trend. This is mostly likely a consequence of the virus.
- frankc 6y ago
  I agree its a recent phenomenon but it's not just the virus. I was born in raised in the city. I remember the bad old days. I see what's happening with the far left and their want to gut the NYPD and I foresee it backsliding into the bad old days. Crime is already ticking up but it's too early to point at that and say it's happening. It's a longer term projection I am making.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    It will unfortunately get worse with all the people and money pulling out of downtown if this continues.
- madengr 6y ago
  and rioting.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Probably more like 20 years. Boston, for example, was still losing population until the late 90s. (And the last major tech employer at the time also left during the 90s.) Demographically, you were mostly seeing college-educated young people make up the net inflow over the past 20 years. I suspect that layered over the virus effects, you probably had some demographics who were on the edge of moving anyway--which is one reason that so many of them pulled the trigger fairly quickly.