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THE Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil. Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as

THE Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil. Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as his country's oil minister five decades ago, quoted by the Economist in 2003 ("The End of the Oil Age"). [0] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2003/10/23/the-end-of-the-oil-age https://www.economist.com/leaders/2003/10/23/the-end-of-the-...

rapnie 6y ago
Yes, 17 years ago.. > Hydrogen fuel cells and other ways of storing and distributing energy are no longer a distant dream but a foreseeable reality. And that was said at least 20 years earlier still. I really hope we'll reach the end of the Oil Age, but as one gets older it becomes hard not to be sceptical of these claims. Seeing is believing.. more evidence. In this thread so far only one comment mentioned geo-politics surrounding oil - a building block of global power - that needs to be dealt with. Hampering the transition to clean energy.
- jseliger 6y ago
  I really hope we'll reach the end of the Oil Age, but as one gets older it becomes hard not to be sceptical of these claims. Seeing is believing.. more evidence. Tesla keeps outperforming other car makers, even in a difficult environment: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/tech/tesla-sales/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/tech/tesla-sales/index.html. VW's electrics are about to hit: https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/volkswagen-vw-id-3-electric-car-july-20/ https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/volkswagen-vw-id-3-electric-c.... Electric semis are moving towards production, by Tesla, Daimler, and others. Even electric bikes and scooters are still seeing massive sales growth. If you've not tried you, you should. The change is happening. Long-haul plane flights will remain on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future but the rest of the world is changing, fast.
  - rapnie 6y ago
    Yes, I don't deny there are good signs to be hopeful this time. Also those energy packs, once no longer usable in a car, can still be used for years for domestic solar energy storage.
  - oblio 6y ago
    Old cars will remain in use. Electric car sales, even after the big companies start making them, will only represent, say, 50% of all sales. The world will be majority electric in probably 30 years... If we're lucky.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      I will take the other side of that bet. 15 years top. We're at an inflection point economically and politically. If the political will isn't there (of all the things wrong with China, they are at least moving very fast to electrify transportation), you'll buy electric because it's cheaper per mile (half the cost) than internal combustion. Range is solved (Model 3/Y have ~300 miles of range, S/X almost 400, Cybertruck is anticipated to have 500 miles), charging is solved (Fast DC charging networks, Tesla's primarily with others catching up), it's all up to get the cost down a bit more. Not related to oil directly, but three California utilities did the math and showed peaker plants are no longer cost competitive against solar backed by batteries [1] [2]. The transition to electrify everything is in full swing. Disclosure: TSLA investor/owner. [1] https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/new-california-study-is-good-news-for-certain-solar-companies https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/new-california-stu... [2] https://library.sce.com/content/dam/sce-doclib/public/regulatory/filings/pending/electric/ELECTRIC_4243-E.pdf https://library.sce.com/content/dam/sce-doclib/public/regula...
      - mixmastamyk 6y ago
        Yes, they’ll sell more as they get cheaper.
      - prewett 6y ago
        Range is solved for many uses. But in my case, I only have a single car. It needs to get me around town, as well as drive me halfway across the US to see my parents for Christmas, in addition to driving me to out-of-the-way places for hiking. Take Big Bend National Park, for instance. The nearest city is two hours away. The park itself is so large that there is a gas station within the park (also, the next gas station is an hour north). I would not expect to find a charging station within two hours of the park. And even if there is, simply replace BBNP with a less popular remote place. If I had two cars, electric is completely doable, but for one car, it needs to work everywhere, which isn't possible yet.
  - scriptproof 6y ago
    On the long term, planes will move from fuel to hydrogen, too... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen-powered_aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen-powered_aircraft
  - lorenzorhoades 6y ago
    Elon and other CEO's in the transportation space owe alot of their success to the Obama administration. Massive loans to a variety of electrical car makers and the privatization of space access in the US.
    - sfifs 6y ago
      I'm sure any American Government support for electrics pales compared to what the Chinese government is doing but isn't government investment a great thing? That's what every sane country with a car industry should do :-)
      - lorenzorhoades 6y ago
        Government investing in technology is great. Wish we did more of it.
  - abenga 6y ago
    What metric are you using to conclude Tesla outperforming other car makers? In 2019,BMW sold ~9 times as many cars, Toyota and VW AG sold 30 times as many. Are we just assuming that its rate of growth will continue indefinitely, even as the other carmakers continue to electrify their line ups? I do agree that oil is on its way out though.
  - raydev 6y ago
    I don't understand why companies like Toyota and Honda and Hyundai haven't moved on electric. Ford and GM I understand, I don't expect them to do anything anymore, but 10 years ago I thought the Japanese and/or Korean companies would be shipping multiple electric models by now. Tesla, with so little marketshare and so many fewer dollars in revenue, seems to have made incredible progress.
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      Toyota is shipping multiple electric models, though. The RAV4 Prime is quite impressive.
    - PHGamer 6y ago
      because they bet on natural gas. however, the us politics dictate we must go into batteries, even tho they have their own problems ;-)
    - atombender 6y ago
      Hyundai is doing it. They started out with the lackluster Ioniq EV, but the Kona EV has proven to be quite popular, and seems like a very decent, fairly aggressively priced vehicle. It's cheaper than the closest comparable model, the Kia Niro EV, and has a slight edge (e.g. battery warmer except on the cheapest model). Still more expensive than the Bolt, but arguably a better car.
    - tastygreenapple 6y ago
      I don't think there are batteries that meet Toyota's durability standards. Toyota wants their cars to be able to last a million miles in extreme environments (-40 degrees Alaska, +120 degrees F deserts). You can't do that with today's off-the-shelf battery technology.
      - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
        Gas cars can't go a million miles on one engine, either, and need endless maintenance. EVs already get past a few 100k miles with much less work. EVs will be first to 10^6 miles.

rapnie 6y ago

Yes, 17 years ago.. > Hydrogen fuel cells and other ways of storing and distributing energy are no longer a distant dream but a foreseeable reality. And that was said at least 20 years earlier still. I really hope we'll reach the end of the Oil Age, but as one gets older it becomes hard not to be sceptical of these claims. Seeing is believing.. more evidence. In this thread so far only one comment mentioned geo-politics surrounding oil - a building block of global power - that needs to be dealt with. Hampering the transition to clean energy.

jseliger 6y ago
I really hope we'll reach the end of the Oil Age, but as one gets older it becomes hard not to be sceptical of these claims. Seeing is believing.. more evidence. Tesla keeps outperforming other car makers, even in a difficult environment: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/tech/tesla-sales/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/tech/tesla-sales/index.html. VW's electrics are about to hit: https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/volkswagen-vw-id-3-electric-car-july-20/ https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/volkswagen-vw-id-3-electric-c.... Electric semis are moving towards production, by Tesla, Daimler, and others. Even electric bikes and scooters are still seeing massive sales growth. If you've not tried you, you should. The change is happening. Long-haul plane flights will remain on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future but the rest of the world is changing, fast.
- rapnie 6y ago
  Yes, I don't deny there are good signs to be hopeful this time. Also those energy packs, once no longer usable in a car, can still be used for years for domestic solar energy storage.
- oblio 6y ago
  Old cars will remain in use. Electric car sales, even after the big companies start making them, will only represent, say, 50% of all sales. The world will be majority electric in probably 30 years... If we're lucky.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    I will take the other side of that bet. 15 years top. We're at an inflection point economically and politically. If the political will isn't there (of all the things wrong with China, they are at least moving very fast to electrify transportation), you'll buy electric because it's cheaper per mile (half the cost) than internal combustion. Range is solved (Model 3/Y have ~300 miles of range, S/X almost 400, Cybertruck is anticipated to have 500 miles), charging is solved (Fast DC charging networks, Tesla's primarily with others catching up), it's all up to get the cost down a bit more. Not related to oil directly, but three California utilities did the math and showed peaker plants are no longer cost competitive against solar backed by batteries [1] [2]. The transition to electrify everything is in full swing. Disclosure: TSLA investor/owner. [1] https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/new-california-study-is-good-news-for-certain-solar-companies https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/new-california-stu... [2] https://library.sce.com/content/dam/sce-doclib/public/regulatory/filings/pending/electric/ELECTRIC_4243-E.pdf https://library.sce.com/content/dam/sce-doclib/public/regula...
    - mixmastamyk 6y ago
      Yes, they’ll sell more as they get cheaper.
    - prewett 6y ago
      Range is solved for many uses. But in my case, I only have a single car. It needs to get me around town, as well as drive me halfway across the US to see my parents for Christmas, in addition to driving me to out-of-the-way places for hiking. Take Big Bend National Park, for instance. The nearest city is two hours away. The park itself is so large that there is a gas station within the park (also, the next gas station is an hour north). I would not expect to find a charging station within two hours of the park. And even if there is, simply replace BBNP with a less popular remote place. If I had two cars, electric is completely doable, but for one car, it needs to work everywhere, which isn't possible yet.
- scriptproof 6y ago
  On the long term, planes will move from fuel to hydrogen, too... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen-powered_aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen-powered_aircraft
- lorenzorhoades 6y ago
  Elon and other CEO's in the transportation space owe alot of their success to the Obama administration. Massive loans to a variety of electrical car makers and the privatization of space access in the US.
  - sfifs 6y ago
    I'm sure any American Government support for electrics pales compared to what the Chinese government is doing but isn't government investment a great thing? That's what every sane country with a car industry should do :-)
    - lorenzorhoades 6y ago
      Government investing in technology is great. Wish we did more of it.
- abenga 6y ago
  What metric are you using to conclude Tesla outperforming other car makers? In 2019,BMW sold ~9 times as many cars, Toyota and VW AG sold 30 times as many. Are we just assuming that its rate of growth will continue indefinitely, even as the other carmakers continue to electrify their line ups? I do agree that oil is on its way out though.
- raydev 6y ago
  I don't understand why companies like Toyota and Honda and Hyundai haven't moved on electric. Ford and GM I understand, I don't expect them to do anything anymore, but 10 years ago I thought the Japanese and/or Korean companies would be shipping multiple electric models by now. Tesla, with so little marketshare and so many fewer dollars in revenue, seems to have made incredible progress.
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    Toyota is shipping multiple electric models, though. The RAV4 Prime is quite impressive.
  - PHGamer 6y ago
    because they bet on natural gas. however, the us politics dictate we must go into batteries, even tho they have their own problems ;-)
  - atombender 6y ago
    Hyundai is doing it. They started out with the lackluster Ioniq EV, but the Kona EV has proven to be quite popular, and seems like a very decent, fairly aggressively priced vehicle. It's cheaper than the closest comparable model, the Kia Niro EV, and has a slight edge (e.g. battery warmer except on the cheapest model). Still more expensive than the Bolt, but arguably a better car.
  - tastygreenapple 6y ago
    I don't think there are batteries that meet Toyota's durability standards. Toyota wants their cars to be able to last a million miles in extreme environments (-40 degrees Alaska, +120 degrees F deserts). You can't do that with today's off-the-shelf battery technology.
    - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
      Gas cars can't go a million miles on one engine, either, and need endless maintenance. EVs already get past a few 100k miles with much less work. EVs will be first to 10^6 miles.