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Any article about oil profits declining should really make to to mention Russia because if their economy starts to tank from loss of too much income from this t

Any article about oil profits declining should really make to to mention Russia because if their economy starts to tank from loss of too much income from this trade it could lead to more adventurism by their leadership.

koheripbal 6y ago
I wonder who they'd invade next... Armenia? The rest of Ukraine? Turkey?
- Balgair 6y ago
  Whatever they (Vlad) are going to do, they have a closing window to do it in. Russia's population is expected to fall to ~130 million by 2050 [0]. The dual upcoming hits of reduced fuel purchasing and climate change are not going to affect Russia well. Their petrorubles are not likely to maintain a punch in a solar/wind/etc world. And as the temperate zones move towards the poles, with the grain belts tagging along, all of Russia's neighbors are likely to look at that unmanned land in a more hungry way. Their southernly neighbors of India and China are still growing in population to ~3B combined in 2050, let alone all the other countries. Whatever balance there is now will change with a hungrier and hotter populace. In some ways, these issues with Donny and Boris are amazing feats of engineering. But they are only delaying the inevitable. Whatever they (Vlad) are planning on doing, I don't see how they get out of this hole. Sure, they bought time and space to move, but that time is limited. The next election in the US is likely to reveal more of their (Vlad's) hand. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
  - koheripbal 6y ago
    On one hand, you're saying their land is going to be more valuable - and then on the other you're saying their land is going to suffer under climate change. Your analysis seems very politically motivated, rather than objectively looking at probable outcomes. If anything, more fertile land will drive immigration, not invasion, and help solve their demographic problems.
    - Balgair 6y ago
      My apologies for being unclear. No, the land may become more valuable as the grain belts and people migrate poleward. Land to the south will become less valuable and hotter. The southern neighbors are gaining greatly in population, while Russia is loosing population. The current Russian actions (Vlad's) do not seem to indicate welcoming immigrants or other diverse people (Chechnya, hyper complicated, yes, but still). Russia does have a long history of multi-ethnic tension and release though. I'd hope that they (Vlad) welcome the climate refugees, but such integration is likely to be very difficult, as is usual. A 'Roman' approach may be good to alleviate the strife, where in the pre-Gothic invasions, the Roman M.O. was to take the younger immigrant men into the legions, separate the clans/tribes across the empire to tie allegiance to their neighbors and Rome, and then in about three generations the grandchildren would run the empire. Unfortunately for Russia, that takes ~60-80 years, so about 2080-2100, well past the issues of 2050.
- Yizahi 6y ago
  Latvia probably. Not Turkey, way too hard and scary.
  - sergeykish 6y ago
    Latvia and Turkey are members of the European Union, NATO. Too much to bite.
- sremani 6y ago
  Russia is vulnerable to the west - if I have to pick one of the 3, its Ukraine.
  - NicoJuicy 6y ago
    I'm not sure about this, the actions they already took with Ukraine seem to have crippled their economy.
ilstormcloud 6y ago
But Russia and these middle eastern countries are not on the same level. In my opinion, the end of oil will hurt Russia but won't destroy it. It has the will, and know how to do whatever is needed. Some of the middle eastern petro state on the other hand are family businesses masquerading as nation states; and they were able to keep that up only because of oil. Once that dries up, there's going to be interesting times ahead.

koheripbal 6y ago

I wonder who they'd invade next... Armenia? The rest of Ukraine? Turkey?

Balgair 6y ago
Whatever they (Vlad) are going to do, they have a closing window to do it in. Russia's population is expected to fall to ~130 million by 2050 [0]. The dual upcoming hits of reduced fuel purchasing and climate change are not going to affect Russia well. Their petrorubles are not likely to maintain a punch in a solar/wind/etc world. And as the temperate zones move towards the poles, with the grain belts tagging along, all of Russia's neighbors are likely to look at that unmanned land in a more hungry way. Their southernly neighbors of India and China are still growing in population to ~3B combined in 2050, let alone all the other countries. Whatever balance there is now will change with a hungrier and hotter populace. In some ways, these issues with Donny and Boris are amazing feats of engineering. But they are only delaying the inevitable. Whatever they (Vlad) are planning on doing, I don't see how they get out of this hole. Sure, they bought time and space to move, but that time is limited. The next election in the US is likely to reveal more of their (Vlad's) hand. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
- koheripbal 6y ago
  On one hand, you're saying their land is going to be more valuable - and then on the other you're saying their land is going to suffer under climate change. Your analysis seems very politically motivated, rather than objectively looking at probable outcomes. If anything, more fertile land will drive immigration, not invasion, and help solve their demographic problems.
  - Balgair 6y ago
    My apologies for being unclear. No, the land may become more valuable as the grain belts and people migrate poleward. Land to the south will become less valuable and hotter. The southern neighbors are gaining greatly in population, while Russia is loosing population. The current Russian actions (Vlad's) do not seem to indicate welcoming immigrants or other diverse people (Chechnya, hyper complicated, yes, but still). Russia does have a long history of multi-ethnic tension and release though. I'd hope that they (Vlad) welcome the climate refugees, but such integration is likely to be very difficult, as is usual. A 'Roman' approach may be good to alleviate the strife, where in the pre-Gothic invasions, the Roman M.O. was to take the younger immigrant men into the legions, separate the clans/tribes across the empire to tie allegiance to their neighbors and Rome, and then in about three generations the grandchildren would run the empire. Unfortunately for Russia, that takes ~60-80 years, so about 2080-2100, well past the issues of 2050.
Yizahi 6y ago
Latvia probably. Not Turkey, way too hard and scary.
- sergeykish 6y ago
  Latvia and Turkey are members of the European Union, NATO. Too much to bite.
sremani 6y ago
Russia is vulnerable to the west - if I have to pick one of the 3, its Ukraine.
- NicoJuicy 6y ago
  I'm not sure about this, the actions they already took with Ukraine seem to have crippled their economy.

ilstormcloud 6y ago

But Russia and these middle eastern countries are not on the same level. In my opinion, the end of oil will hurt Russia but won't destroy it. It has the will, and know how to do whatever is needed. Some of the middle eastern petro state on the other hand are family businesses masquerading as nation states; and they were able to keep that up only because of oil. Once that dries up, there's going to be interesting times ahead.