3 ms·

When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of

by Xixi 6y ago

When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... Yet I think it's important to keep some perspective: this Chinese/US spat is not a championship where a winner will be declared at the end of the summer. There's no reason to believe that 50 years from now either China or US will have collapsed. Xi Jinping dictatorial inclinations [1] are a threat of course, as he might decide to consolidate his power at the expense of China. But US recent [2] trend of politicians running on the hate of the other half of the US population is also a tremendous existential threat. In any case, assuming that both US and China still stand 50 years from now, the only way for TSMC, Samsung or even Intel to stay ahead is, well, to stay ahead. It's a never-ending marathon, and in that regard funneling Huawei money into SMIC sounds very counter-productive. [1] Moreso than his predecessors IMHO, with the notable exception of Mao. And indeed, Mao was very good at keeping China poor, underdeveloped and starving. [2] Is it really recent? I'm French, during my two stays in the US (first time 3 years, second time 5 years) I felt a major polarization of the population, but it might have been there all along and I simply didn't notice.

ksec 6y ago
>TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. I think this doesn't paint an accurate picture. TSMC were "high end" sans Intel. Since you cant Fab with Intel, TSMC was the best any Fabless Vendor could get, now it just happen TSMC is also the best in industry. Compared to SMIC, they aren't even close to TSMC, nor Samsung, or even Global Foundry. In Tech lead, Volume and yield. To put things into perspective, they will have to accelerate at 2x the speed of current industry's rate for the next 5 years in other to be level with TSMC. SMIC's 14nm is still no where near Samsung, or even Global Foundry ( GF ). And GF has been shipping 14nm in volume for nearly 5 years now.
- Xixi 6y ago
  You are right indeed, TSMC probably didn't need Apple cash to get to where they are now. I forgot that for a very long time Apple was shopping at Samsung...
Traster 6y ago
>When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones Apple went to Samsung didn't they?
- Xixi 6y ago
  Indeed, until the A8 it was Samsung, then the A9 was split between Samsung and TSMC. And from the A10 it was TSMC only. In any case, Apple cash going away didn't help Intel. I'm pretty sure it helps financing TSMC RnD now, just like it helped financing Samsung RnD before. Now Huawei cash is going to finance SMIC. It's cash being funneled at a competitor, supported by the Chinese government. Which means that if Huawei is not competitive because of SMIC, SMIC is going to get further money/intelligence from the Chinese government to become competitive. I don't see how TSMC, Samsung or Intel win from that situation, at least in the long term. I can be completely wrong of course, and maybe China will be in a similar situation to that of the Soviet Union during the cold war: without access to competitive electronics. But SMIC is not that far behind, or are they? They can do 14nm, so they are at TSMC level of 2016. 4 years late? Without ASML support though, it might be harder to catch up. I think TSMC having to drop Huawei is more a side effect of American sanctions than anything being done by design. Again I can be wrong. US sanctions are very far reaching and problematic for a lot of companies (see: Airbus, BNP Paribas, etc.), it doesn't mean that these companies in particular are targeted by the US. Unintended consequences.

by Xixi 6y ago

ksec 6y ago

>TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. I think this doesn't paint an accurate picture. TSMC were "high end" sans Intel. Since you cant Fab with Intel, TSMC was the best any Fabless Vendor could get, now it just happen TSMC is also the best in industry. Compared to SMIC, they aren't even close to TSMC, nor Samsung, or even Global Foundry. In Tech lead, Volume and yield. To put things into perspective, they will have to accelerate at 2x the speed of current industry's rate for the next 5 years in other to be level with TSMC. SMIC's 14nm is still no where near Samsung, or even Global Foundry ( GF ). And GF has been shipping 14nm in volume for nearly 5 years now.

Xixi 6y ago
You are right indeed, TSMC probably didn't need Apple cash to get to where they are now. I forgot that for a very long time Apple was shopping at Samsung...

Traster 6y ago

>When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones Apple went to Samsung didn't they?

Xixi 6y ago
Indeed, until the A8 it was Samsung, then the A9 was split between Samsung and TSMC. And from the A10 it was TSMC only. In any case, Apple cash going away didn't help Intel. I'm pretty sure it helps financing TSMC RnD now, just like it helped financing Samsung RnD before. Now Huawei cash is going to finance SMIC. It's cash being funneled at a competitor, supported by the Chinese government. Which means that if Huawei is not competitive because of SMIC, SMIC is going to get further money/intelligence from the Chinese government to become competitive. I don't see how TSMC, Samsung or Intel win from that situation, at least in the long term. I can be completely wrong of course, and maybe China will be in a similar situation to that of the Soviet Union during the cold war: without access to competitive electronics. But SMIC is not that far behind, or are they? They can do 14nm, so they are at TSMC level of 2016. 4 years late? Without ASML support though, it might be harder to catch up. I think TSMC having to drop Huawei is more a side effect of American sanctions than anything being done by design. Again I can be wrong. US sanctions are very far reaching and problematic for a lot of companies (see: Airbus, BNP Paribas, etc.), it doesn't mean that these companies in particular are targeted by the US. Unintended consequences.