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The Trinity test remains the most intellectually arrogant moment in history. The bomb could have ignited the atmosphere, turned us into another sun for reasons

The Trinity test remains the most intellectually arrogant moment in history. The bomb could have ignited the atmosphere, turned us into another sun for reasons we didn't understand. They worried about this, and were fairly confident in their calculations. But every century of physics brings the realization we had little clue a century earlier. If the Trinity test had behaved in an unexpected way, we wouldn't be reading this. That's what I assumed the headline meant. I was disappointed.

tinalumfoil 6y ago
That's a bit too fearful of the unknown. Where would we be if our ancestors didn't play with fire?
dogfoods 6y ago
"The bomb could have ignited the atmosphere," No, it could not have.
- fit2rule 6y ago
  The point is not whether it could have, or not. Its whether they knew it wouldn't. And in fact, they didn't know it wouldn't ignite the atmosphere - there was a chance it might and they went ahead anyway. It was a calculated risk.
  - dogfoods 6y ago
    No, Bethe and others knew in the 40s it could not have. Enough nuclear physics was known then to know that the atmosphere cannot be ignited by a nuke. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-teller-trinity-and-the-end-of-earth/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-telle...
    - fit2rule 6y ago
      They didn't know for sure until they'd tested it in the real world. That's the point of the hubris.
      - dogfoods 6y ago
        No, they did know for sure.
maroonblazer 6y ago
I'm not following. You're suggesting they had an exaggerated sense of their own abilities? It doesn't seem they did, given they accomplished what they set out to do. And their calculations turned out to be correct w/r/t the risk of igniting the atmosphere. It seems odd to suggest they were arrogant because they didn't have physics knowledge that wasn't available to them - or anyone - at the time.
xibalba 6y ago
> bomb could have ignited the atmosphere This appears to be a misunderstanding or myth. It was well understood prior to Trinity that such an occurrence was not possible. The issue was carefully studied by multiple top physicists affiliated with the Manhattan Project. See here: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-teller-trinity-and-the-end-of-earth/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-telle...
sillysaurusx 6y ago
You’re getting hammered for this, but you’re probably correct. One could imagine a parallel universe where our test didn’t go so favorably. One could also imagine a future physics breakthrough that we’re fairly confident about, which turns out to be horribly wrong. However, with each decade that the standard model turns out to be correct, one could also imagine that this chance will never happen again; that we’ll be forever confident in our predictions. (This seems the most arrogant statement of all, though.)
- nullc 6y ago
  > However, with each decade that the standard model turns out to be correct, one could also imagine that this chance will never happen again; that we’ll be forever confident in our predictions. (This seems the most arrogant statement of all, though.) Even with a perfect model complex systems will continue to surprise us so long as our intelligence and knowledge is finite. See software development for an endless source of examples.
- Syzygies 6y ago
  The most important kind of intelligence is knowing what one does not know. There's a mindset counter to this, that substitutes a model for reality and then fervently believes the model. Math and physics exerts a very strong selection force attracting people fond of this substitution. The responses here do not surprise me. Our extrapolations always take the form of moving along a tangent vector out from prior experience. Prior to relativity, Newtonian physics was the belief that we actually lived in that tangent space. Surprises come when the deviations are large enough for reality to curve away from our models. I thought I understood how materials behaved, till I was stuck briefly on a mountain at -30F. People dance on decks that collapse. They smoke joints on exposed foam mattresses. Surprises happen. I appreciate that in this universe, our experience confirmed that physicists' absolute faith in the Trinity experiment was well-founded. A billion runs of parallel universes would have likely work out. Take this out to a quadrillion runs? It turns out that alien life has always been here at the subatomic level. Like dogs not liking fireworks, that nuclear ping really pissed them off, so they engineer a virus that wipes us out. Or it turns out that indeed there's a quantum basis to consciousness. After that nuclear ping, the atmosphere is fine, but everyone on that side of the Earth keels over, no longer able to think. The Trinity test was a step further out along the tangent vector than we'd ever taken before. We were deliberately creating a version of a Carrington Event on Earth, with absolute certainty that we understood and anticipated all consequences. The odds of calamity were small, but our existence was at stake.
jariel 6y ago
"They worried about this, and were fairly confident in their calculations. " The problem with saying it this way, is that it's implied 'there was a risk but it was within threshold'. There was no risk. It wasn't a thing. It's not like putting 100lbs in the elevator and knowing it will 'be ok' because it's way below the 1000lb threshold. It's not really 'safe' by calculation, it's mostly 'safe' by rationalisation.
ramraj07 6y ago
"In the twenty-two hundred recorded points of my conferences with Hitler, nuclear fission comes up only once, and then is mentioned with extreme brevity. Hitler did sometimes comment on its prospects, but what I told him of my conferences with the physicists confirmed his view that there was not much profit in the matter. Actually, Professor Heisenberg had not given any final answer to my question whether a successful nuclear fission could be kept under control with absolute certainty or might continue as a chain reaction. Hitler was plainly not delighted with the possibility that the earth under his rule might be transformed into a glowing star. Occasionally, however, he joked that the scientists in their unworldly urge to lay bare all the secrets under heaven might some day set the globe on fire. But undoubtedly a good deal of time would pass before that came about, Hitler said; he would certainly not live to see it. " From the Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes. Such an amazing book, and required reading for any scientist IMO.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  Why? The "Black Sun" burning so bright... Perfect "ruin value"!

tinalumfoil 6y ago

That's a bit too fearful of the unknown. Where would we be if our ancestors didn't play with fire?

dogfoods 6y ago

"The bomb could have ignited the atmosphere," No, it could not have.

fit2rule 6y ago
The point is not whether it could have, or not. Its whether they knew it wouldn't. And in fact, they didn't know it wouldn't ignite the atmosphere - there was a chance it might and they went ahead anyway. It was a calculated risk.
- dogfoods 6y ago
  No, Bethe and others knew in the 40s it could not have. Enough nuclear physics was known then to know that the atmosphere cannot be ignited by a nuke. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-teller-trinity-and-the-end-of-earth/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-telle...
  - fit2rule 6y ago
    They didn't know for sure until they'd tested it in the real world. That's the point of the hubris.
    - dogfoods 6y ago
      No, they did know for sure.

maroonblazer 6y ago

I'm not following. You're suggesting they had an exaggerated sense of their own abilities? It doesn't seem they did, given they accomplished what they set out to do. And their calculations turned out to be correct w/r/t the risk of igniting the atmosphere. It seems odd to suggest they were arrogant because they didn't have physics knowledge that wasn't available to them - or anyone - at the time.

xibalba 6y ago

> bomb could have ignited the atmosphere This appears to be a misunderstanding or myth. It was well understood prior to Trinity that such an occurrence was not possible. The issue was carefully studied by multiple top physicists affiliated with the Manhattan Project. See here: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-teller-trinity-and-the-end-of-earth/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-telle...

sillysaurusx 6y ago

You’re getting hammered for this, but you’re probably correct. One could imagine a parallel universe where our test didn’t go so favorably. One could also imagine a future physics breakthrough that we’re fairly confident about, which turns out to be horribly wrong. However, with each decade that the standard model turns out to be correct, one could also imagine that this chance will never happen again; that we’ll be forever confident in our predictions. (This seems the most arrogant statement of all, though.)

nullc 6y ago
> However, with each decade that the standard model turns out to be correct, one could also imagine that this chance will never happen again; that we’ll be forever confident in our predictions. (This seems the most arrogant statement of all, though.) Even with a perfect model complex systems will continue to surprise us so long as our intelligence and knowledge is finite. See software development for an endless source of examples.
Syzygies 6y ago
The most important kind of intelligence is knowing what one does not know. There's a mindset counter to this, that substitutes a model for reality and then fervently believes the model. Math and physics exerts a very strong selection force attracting people fond of this substitution. The responses here do not surprise me. Our extrapolations always take the form of moving along a tangent vector out from prior experience. Prior to relativity, Newtonian physics was the belief that we actually lived in that tangent space. Surprises come when the deviations are large enough for reality to curve away from our models. I thought I understood how materials behaved, till I was stuck briefly on a mountain at -30F. People dance on decks that collapse. They smoke joints on exposed foam mattresses. Surprises happen. I appreciate that in this universe, our experience confirmed that physicists' absolute faith in the Trinity experiment was well-founded. A billion runs of parallel universes would have likely work out. Take this out to a quadrillion runs? It turns out that alien life has always been here at the subatomic level. Like dogs not liking fireworks, that nuclear ping really pissed them off, so they engineer a virus that wipes us out. Or it turns out that indeed there's a quantum basis to consciousness. After that nuclear ping, the atmosphere is fine, but everyone on that side of the Earth keels over, no longer able to think. The Trinity test was a step further out along the tangent vector than we'd ever taken before. We were deliberately creating a version of a Carrington Event on Earth, with absolute certainty that we understood and anticipated all consequences. The odds of calamity were small, but our existence was at stake.

jariel 6y ago

"They worried about this, and were fairly confident in their calculations. " The problem with saying it this way, is that it's implied 'there was a risk but it was within threshold'. There was no risk. It wasn't a thing. It's not like putting 100lbs in the elevator and knowing it will 'be ok' because it's way below the 1000lb threshold. It's not really 'safe' by calculation, it's mostly 'safe' by rationalisation.

ramraj07 6y ago

"In the twenty-two hundred recorded points of my conferences with Hitler, nuclear fission comes up only once, and then is mentioned with extreme brevity. Hitler did sometimes comment on its prospects, but what I told him of my conferences with the physicists confirmed his view that there was not much profit in the matter. Actually, Professor Heisenberg had not given any final answer to my question whether a successful nuclear fission could be kept under control with absolute certainty or might continue as a chain reaction. Hitler was plainly not delighted with the possibility that the earth under his rule might be transformed into a glowing star. Occasionally, however, he joked that the scientists in their unworldly urge to lay bare all the secrets under heaven might some day set the globe on fire. But undoubtedly a good deal of time would pass before that came about, Hitler said; he would certainly not live to see it. " From the Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes. Such an amazing book, and required reading for any scientist IMO.

LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
Why? The "Black Sun" burning so bright... Perfect "ruin value"!