4 ms·

Yeah, you are right. Wars between these three are going to be proxy or economic. I think actual war is unlikely between any two of these three but I think skir

Yeah, you are right. Wars between these three are going to be proxy or economic. I think actual war is unlikely between any two of these three but I think skirmishes are very likely. Russia and China/US I doubt as Russia doesn't seem to have a concern which overlaps with the interest from other two on ground except Syria I guess, but between US and China, South China Sea might become a flashpoint if they both keep pushing each other there out of ego.

jcranmer 6y ago
Russia, as an ailing/former superpower, is quite sensitive to foreign incursions into its sphere of influence, especially the former USSR. Its wars against Ukraine and Georgia were motivated in large part by the fact that said countries were maneuvering closer to NATO and the West, for example. Conflict between Russia and China over expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia (given Chinese investment into infrastructure there) is not impossible. Another flashpoint between Russia and China could well be the Russian Far East; Russia has long been pretty paranoid that China is going to try to claim the land as its own.
- actuator 6y ago
  I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s?[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_and_Road_Initiative#Russia_and_EEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_a... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Post-1991 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Po...
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    > I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. I can see that changing quite quickly if there's evidence of a political shift in Central Asia that disfavors Russia. Say a new Turkmeni strongman decides to start his foreign trips by visiting Beijing and doesn't call on Russia for a few years. Or a Putin-successor with flagging popularity sees being more combative here as an easy way to boost popularity (much as the Crimean annexation was driven in part by Putin attempting to improve his support)--although targeting Western country is more likely here. > Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s? The lack of existing border disputes doesn't mean that the population accepts the border. Take Alsace-Lorraine--the border was never a live dispute, but France and Germany sure saw fit to switch it to their side every opportunity in the early 20th century. The Chinese have their own self-image as being a nation unjustly carved up and tormented by foreign powers, and the current border is seen as being one of those examples [1]. To be clear: I don't see any of these flashpoints as likely; I'm just pointing out that there is a split between Russia and China that could lead to a war, and that war between any two of Russia/China/USA is plausible. [1] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/c...

jcranmer 6y ago

Russia, as an ailing/former superpower, is quite sensitive to foreign incursions into its sphere of influence, especially the former USSR. Its wars against Ukraine and Georgia were motivated in large part by the fact that said countries were maneuvering closer to NATO and the West, for example. Conflict between Russia and China over expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia (given Chinese investment into infrastructure there) is not impossible. Another flashpoint between Russia and China could well be the Russian Far East; Russia has long been pretty paranoid that China is going to try to claim the land as its own.

actuator 6y ago
I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s?[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_and_Road_Initiative#Russia_and_EEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_a... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Post-1991 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Po...
- jcranmer 6y ago
  > I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. I can see that changing quite quickly if there's evidence of a political shift in Central Asia that disfavors Russia. Say a new Turkmeni strongman decides to start his foreign trips by visiting Beijing and doesn't call on Russia for a few years. Or a Putin-successor with flagging popularity sees being more combative here as an easy way to boost popularity (much as the Crimean annexation was driven in part by Putin attempting to improve his support)--although targeting Western country is more likely here. > Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s? The lack of existing border disputes doesn't mean that the population accepts the border. Take Alsace-Lorraine--the border was never a live dispute, but France and Germany sure saw fit to switch it to their side every opportunity in the early 20th century. The Chinese have their own self-image as being a nation unjustly carved up and tormented by foreign powers, and the current border is seen as being one of those examples [1]. To be clear: I don't see any of these flashpoints as likely; I'm just pointing out that there is a split between Russia and China that could lead to a war, and that war between any two of Russia/China/USA is plausible. [1] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/c...