4 ms·

Is anybody going to go to war with Russia, China, or the US though? All three of these countries are too big and difficult to invade. You would quite literally

Is anybody going to go to war with Russia, China, or the US though? All three of these countries are too big and difficult to invade. You would quite literally have to decimate any one of them to keep hold of it. And economically it would be extremely unprofitable to the US and China. Russia could theoretically gain quite a bit if it managed to annex China but there is the whole issue of how would you even go about that? Nuclear war because it turns into an asshole measuring contest seems more likely but that is a straight doomsday scenario. No I think future wars between these three will all be proxy and economic. It’s easier to do the asshole measuring in the Middle East than on your own turf. And economy is ultimately what matters. I think the main issue is that Russia has a lot of tendrils in the US at this point starting with the one they have up Trump’s cloaca. They can do a lot of damage with cyber attacks and propaganda but ultimately it’s all about weakening the economy, not about annexation.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
actuator 6y ago
Yeah, you are right. Wars between these three are going to be proxy or economic. I think actual war is unlikely between any two of these three but I think skirmishes are very likely. Russia and China/US I doubt as Russia doesn't seem to have a concern which overlaps with the interest from other two on ground except Syria I guess, but between US and China, South China Sea might become a flashpoint if they both keep pushing each other there out of ego.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  Russia, as an ailing/former superpower, is quite sensitive to foreign incursions into its sphere of influence, especially the former USSR. Its wars against Ukraine and Georgia were motivated in large part by the fact that said countries were maneuvering closer to NATO and the West, for example. Conflict between Russia and China over expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia (given Chinese investment into infrastructure there) is not impossible. Another flashpoint between Russia and China could well be the Russian Far East; Russia has long been pretty paranoid that China is going to try to claim the land as its own.
  - actuator 6y ago
    I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s?[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_and_Road_Initiative#Russia_and_EEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_a... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Post-1991 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Po...
    - jcranmer 6y ago
      > I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. I can see that changing quite quickly if there's evidence of a political shift in Central Asia that disfavors Russia. Say a new Turkmeni strongman decides to start his foreign trips by visiting Beijing and doesn't call on Russia for a few years. Or a Putin-successor with flagging popularity sees being more combative here as an easy way to boost popularity (much as the Crimean annexation was driven in part by Putin attempting to improve his support)--although targeting Western country is more likely here. > Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s? The lack of existing border disputes doesn't mean that the population accepts the border. Take Alsace-Lorraine--the border was never a live dispute, but France and Germany sure saw fit to switch it to their side every opportunity in the early 20th century. The Chinese have their own self-image as being a nation unjustly carved up and tormented by foreign powers, and the current border is seen as being one of those examples [1]. To be clear: I don't see any of these flashpoints as likely; I'm just pointing out that there is a split between Russia and China that could lead to a war, and that war between any two of Russia/China/USA is plausible. [1] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/c...
puranjay 6y ago
Further, these three countries are completely different, culturally and ethnically. Germany invading and occupying Austria might work - there isn't a great deal of difference between their people. But Russia, US and China are poles apart. Especially China
082349872349872 6y ago
The rationale for Eastasia, Eurasia, and Oceania: "YOU AND THE ATOMIC BOMB (1945)" http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300011h.html#part33 http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300011h.html#part33 It looks like he may have swiped the tripartition from Burnham, THE MANAGERIAL REVOLUTION, but it also corresponds nicely to who has the bomb. Eastasia - CN Eurasia - FR (sub/air only), RU Oceania - UK (sub only), US Edit: FWIW, after skimming a summary of Burnham (the precursor to IngSoc), I'd say that capital, having devised hedge funds, LBOs, and PE, have shown they know well how to keep management in their place. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23810147 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23810147 Conflicts between capital and management are nothing new: roman senators were not supposed to be "in trade", but owning commercial ventures was perfectly respectable. (I've heard it jokingly said that one's golf handicap in strokes ~= one's office time in hours per week...)

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

actuator 6y ago

Yeah, you are right. Wars between these three are going to be proxy or economic. I think actual war is unlikely between any two of these three but I think skirmishes are very likely. Russia and China/US I doubt as Russia doesn't seem to have a concern which overlaps with the interest from other two on ground except Syria I guess, but between US and China, South China Sea might become a flashpoint if they both keep pushing each other there out of ego.

jcranmer 6y ago
Russia, as an ailing/former superpower, is quite sensitive to foreign incursions into its sphere of influence, especially the former USSR. Its wars against Ukraine and Georgia were motivated in large part by the fact that said countries were maneuvering closer to NATO and the West, for example. Conflict between Russia and China over expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia (given Chinese investment into infrastructure there) is not impossible. Another flashpoint between Russia and China could well be the Russian Far East; Russia has long been pretty paranoid that China is going to try to claim the land as its own.
- actuator 6y ago
  I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s?[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_and_Road_Initiative#Russia_and_EEU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_projects_of_the_Belt_a... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Post-1991 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border#Po...
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    > I think Russia might be fine with those considering they themselves[1] are part of China's flagship BRI project. I can see that changing quite quickly if there's evidence of a political shift in Central Asia that disfavors Russia. Say a new Turkmeni strongman decides to start his foreign trips by visiting Beijing and doesn't call on Russia for a few years. Or a Putin-successor with flagging popularity sees being more combative here as an easy way to boost popularity (much as the Crimean annexation was driven in part by Putin attempting to improve his support)--although targeting Western country is more likely here. > Didn't Russia and China settle their border differences in early 2000s? The lack of existing border disputes doesn't mean that the population accepts the border. Take Alsace-Lorraine--the border was never a live dispute, but France and Germany sure saw fit to switch it to their side every opportunity in the early 20th century. The Chinese have their own self-image as being a nation unjustly carved up and tormented by foreign powers, and the current border is seen as being one of those examples [1]. To be clear: I don't see any of these flashpoints as likely; I'm just pointing out that there is a split between Russia and China that could lead to a war, and that war between any two of Russia/China/USA is plausible. [1] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/c...

puranjay 6y ago

Further, these three countries are completely different, culturally and ethnically. Germany invading and occupying Austria might work - there isn't a great deal of difference between their people. But Russia, US and China are poles apart. Especially China

082349872349872 6y ago

The rationale for Eastasia, Eurasia, and Oceania: "YOU AND THE ATOMIC BOMB (1945)" http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300011h.html#part33 http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300011h.html#part33 It looks like he may have swiped the tripartition from Burnham, THE MANAGERIAL REVOLUTION, but it also corresponds nicely to who has the bomb. Eastasia - CN Eurasia - FR (sub/air only), RU Oceania - UK (sub only), US Edit: FWIW, after skimming a summary of Burnham (the precursor to IngSoc), I'd say that capital, having devised hedge funds, LBOs, and PE, have shown they know well how to keep management in their place. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23810147 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23810147 Conflicts between capital and management are nothing new: roman senators were not supposed to be "in trade", but owning commercial ventures was perfectly respectable. (I've heard it jokingly said that one's golf handicap in strokes ~= one's office time in hours per week...)