12 ms·

SMIC isn't close to the same node as TSMC. A competitive high-end SOC could not be manufacured by them.

by robert_foss 6y ago

chvid 6y ago
I guess time will tell.
- robert_foss 6y ago
  The patterning machines used for the leading node isn't exported to China due to export restrictions. Only the Dutch company ASML is able to manufacture these patterning machines.
  - ttul 6y ago
    I didn't know this. I wonder if ASML's export restrictions might be expanded to prohibit shipping even older machines.
  - monocasa 6y ago
    China has been making great progress on Chinese built EUV patterning machines.
    - phkahler 6y ago
      That would not surprise me. Got any links describing progress?
      - ksec 6y ago
        Most of those links are in Chinese and State sponsored. So hard to judge whether they are real or not.
    - Klinky 6y ago
      Do you have some articles on this? I read one article[1] which indicated 22nm with a cheap EUV lamp, but that's not cutting edge. 1. https://www.ww01.net/en/archives/62932 https://www.ww01.net/en/archives/62932
  - jlokier 6y ago
    I don't think it will take long to surpass ASML if the state commits to it and decides the ASML patents don't matter any more. There's enough public knowledge about EUV to clone the machines if starting with unlimited financial resources and no legal constraints.
    - jacquesm 6y ago
      That's so funny. ASML holds the market for a reason, this is not so simple. You could probably do it on a Friday night but the Chinese may take a bit longer than that.
      - thewarrior 6y ago
        This is essentially a Manhattan project like initiative. It doesn’t have to happen overnight. China now has some of the best universities doing research in optics. If it happens in 5 years what will ASML do then ? The west’s monopoly on this sector would be finished. At this point China has no choice but to develop the tech or be forced to not have processors. Time will tell. Given that hard power is being used to punish China they will use every means at their disposal from massive investments and manpower to poaching talents and even espionage. If North Korea can make nukes then this shouldn’t be impossible for a power like China. I have a sneaking suspicion that they are much further ahead than they are revealing in public which explains their confidence and refusal to back down. Time will tell.
        chmod775 6y ago
        >Given that hard power is being used to punish China they will use every means at their disposal from massive investments and manpower to poaching talents and even espionage. Espionage is usually the first thing, not something of last resort. Pretty much all major players are doing it all the time. Doesn't even take much incentive. The west isn't quite as free with giving the stolen information to the private sector (though the US really likes giving their domestic companies bidding advantages) - but since we're talking about China here, there's pretty much a guarantee of anything and everything finding a way to their private sector.
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    Yes, and China has started a program to make EUV patterning machines a few years ago. Time will tell if it will work, but I don't really see why it wouldn't, given enough time. Meanwhile, they have 14nm.
  - chvid 6y ago
    This is the thinking behind the American ban. Time will tell if this is correct.
    - chvid 6y ago
      Or put it in another way. If the American plan fails and the Chinese are able to produce high quality chips without ARM IP and without relying on TSMC. Then this would have been a strategic blunder of historic proportions.
  - zurn 6y ago
    Dutch or US export restrictions, or both?
  - ksec 6y ago
    I dont think there is an official export control for ASML yet. US are pressuring it, but it is not confirmed. In reality ASML doesn't need that export restriction to stop shipping to China. Their EUV TwinScan production capacity is behind schedule, with or without the pandemic. And with factory closing and now not working in 100% capacity the delay will be even longer. The next two years order are already booked by TSMC and Samsung Foundry, and looking at Intel's roadmap I would not be surprised if 2023 is also filled. Samsung are looking at EUV for their NAND and DRAM. All ASML has to do is to reply SMIC they are all sold out. Which itself isn't a lie and also an Industry standard excuses for not shipping to a competitor.
andy_ppp 6y ago
The equipment from ASML will not be sold to them will it, so it’s double the problems.
Xixi 6y ago
When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... Yet I think it's important to keep some perspective: this Chinese/US spat is not a championship where a winner will be declared at the end of the summer. There's no reason to believe that 50 years from now either China or US will have collapsed. Xi Jinping dictatorial inclinations [1] are a threat of course, as he might decide to consolidate his power at the expense of China. But US recent [2] trend of politicians running on the hate of the other half of the US population is also a tremendous existential threat. In any case, assuming that both US and China still stand 50 years from now, the only way for TSMC, Samsung or even Intel to stay ahead is, well, to stay ahead. It's a never-ending marathon, and in that regard funneling Huawei money into SMIC sounds very counter-productive. [1] Moreso than his predecessors IMHO, with the notable exception of Mao. And indeed, Mao was very good at keeping China poor, underdeveloped and starving. [2] Is it really recent? I'm French, during my two stays in the US (first time 3 years, second time 5 years) I felt a major polarization of the population, but it might have been there all along and I simply didn't notice.
- ksec 6y ago
  >TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. I think this doesn't paint an accurate picture. TSMC were "high end" sans Intel. Since you cant Fab with Intel, TSMC was the best any Fabless Vendor could get, now it just happen TSMC is also the best in industry. Compared to SMIC, they aren't even close to TSMC, nor Samsung, or even Global Foundry. In Tech lead, Volume and yield. To put things into perspective, they will have to accelerate at 2x the speed of current industry's rate for the next 5 years in other to be level with TSMC. SMIC's 14nm is still no where near Samsung, or even Global Foundry ( GF ). And GF has been shipping 14nm in volume for nearly 5 years now.
  - Xixi 6y ago
    You are right indeed, TSMC probably didn't need Apple cash to get to where they are now. I forgot that for a very long time Apple was shopping at Samsung...
moeadham 6y ago
This is known as Intel Syndrome.

SMIC isn't close to the same node as TSMC. A competitive high-end SOC could not be manufacured by them.

chvid 6y ago

I guess time will tell.

robert_foss 6y ago
The patterning machines used for the leading node isn't exported to China due to export restrictions. Only the Dutch company ASML is able to manufacture these patterning machines.
- ttul 6y ago
  I didn't know this. I wonder if ASML's export restrictions might be expanded to prohibit shipping even older machines.
- monocasa 6y ago
  China has been making great progress on Chinese built EUV patterning machines.
  - phkahler 6y ago
    That would not surprise me. Got any links describing progress?
    - ksec 6y ago
      Most of those links are in Chinese and State sponsored. So hard to judge whether they are real or not.
  - Klinky 6y ago
    Do you have some articles on this? I read one article[1] which indicated 22nm with a cheap EUV lamp, but that's not cutting edge. 1. https://www.ww01.net/en/archives/62932 https://www.ww01.net/en/archives/62932
- jlokier 6y ago
  I don't think it will take long to surpass ASML if the state commits to it and decides the ASML patents don't matter any more. There's enough public knowledge about EUV to clone the machines if starting with unlimited financial resources and no legal constraints.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    That's so funny. ASML holds the market for a reason, this is not so simple. You could probably do it on a Friday night but the Chinese may take a bit longer than that.
    - thewarrior 6y ago
      This is essentially a Manhattan project like initiative. It doesn’t have to happen overnight. China now has some of the best universities doing research in optics. If it happens in 5 years what will ASML do then ? The west’s monopoly on this sector would be finished. At this point China has no choice but to develop the tech or be forced to not have processors. Time will tell. Given that hard power is being used to punish China they will use every means at their disposal from massive investments and manpower to poaching talents and even espionage. If North Korea can make nukes then this shouldn’t be impossible for a power like China. I have a sneaking suspicion that they are much further ahead than they are revealing in public which explains their confidence and refusal to back down. Time will tell.
      - chmod775 6y ago
        >Given that hard power is being used to punish China they will use every means at their disposal from massive investments and manpower to poaching talents and even espionage. Espionage is usually the first thing, not something of last resort. Pretty much all major players are doing it all the time. Doesn't even take much incentive. The west isn't quite as free with giving the stolen information to the private sector (though the US really likes giving their domestic companies bidding advantages) - but since we're talking about China here, there's pretty much a guarantee of anything and everything finding a way to their private sector.
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  Yes, and China has started a program to make EUV patterning machines a few years ago. Time will tell if it will work, but I don't really see why it wouldn't, given enough time. Meanwhile, they have 14nm.
- chvid 6y ago
  This is the thinking behind the American ban. Time will tell if this is correct.
  - chvid 6y ago
    Or put it in another way. If the American plan fails and the Chinese are able to produce high quality chips without ARM IP and without relying on TSMC. Then this would have been a strategic blunder of historic proportions.
- zurn 6y ago
  Dutch or US export restrictions, or both?
- ksec 6y ago
  I dont think there is an official export control for ASML yet. US are pressuring it, but it is not confirmed. In reality ASML doesn't need that export restriction to stop shipping to China. Their EUV TwinScan production capacity is behind schedule, with or without the pandemic. And with factory closing and now not working in 100% capacity the delay will be even longer. The next two years order are already booked by TSMC and Samsung Foundry, and looking at Intel's roadmap I would not be surprised if 2023 is also filled. Samsung are looking at EUV for their NAND and DRAM. All ASML has to do is to reply SMIC they are all sold out. Which itself isn't a lie and also an Industry standard excuses for not shipping to a competitor.

andy_ppp 6y ago

The equipment from ASML will not be sold to them will it, so it’s double the problems.

Xixi 6y ago

When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... Yet I think it's important to keep some perspective: this Chinese/US spat is not a championship where a winner will be declared at the end of the summer. There's no reason to believe that 50 years from now either China or US will have collapsed. Xi Jinping dictatorial inclinations [1] are a threat of course, as he might decide to consolidate his power at the expense of China. But US recent [2] trend of politicians running on the hate of the other half of the US population is also a tremendous existential threat. In any case, assuming that both US and China still stand 50 years from now, the only way for TSMC, Samsung or even Intel to stay ahead is, well, to stay ahead. It's a never-ending marathon, and in that regard funneling Huawei money into SMIC sounds very counter-productive. [1] Moreso than his predecessors IMHO, with the notable exception of Mao. And indeed, Mao was very good at keeping China poor, underdeveloped and starving. [2] Is it really recent? I'm French, during my two stays in the US (first time 3 years, second time 5 years) I felt a major polarization of the population, but it might have been there all along and I simply didn't notice.

ksec 6y ago
>TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. I think this doesn't paint an accurate picture. TSMC were "high end" sans Intel. Since you cant Fab with Intel, TSMC was the best any Fabless Vendor could get, now it just happen TSMC is also the best in industry. Compared to SMIC, they aren't even close to TSMC, nor Samsung, or even Global Foundry. In Tech lead, Volume and yield. To put things into perspective, they will have to accelerate at 2x the speed of current industry's rate for the next 5 years in other to be level with TSMC. SMIC's 14nm is still no where near Samsung, or even Global Foundry ( GF ). And GF has been shipping 14nm in volume for nearly 5 years now.
- Xixi 6y ago
  You are right indeed, TSMC probably didn't need Apple cash to get to where they are now. I forgot that for a very long time Apple was shopping at Samsung...

moeadham 6y ago

This is known as Intel Syndrome.