4 ms·

> The level of hypocrisy and more importantly, completely irrational risk appraisal, is so concerning to me. Well, there's a well known human bias with regards

> The level of hypocrisy and more importantly, completely irrational risk appraisal, is so concerning to me. Well, there's a well known human bias with regards to risk assessment. We consistently overvalue new and unfamiliar risks, and undervalue known and familiar risks. This is why some people are deathly afraid of getting on an airplane, but perfectly fine driving to the airport, even though statistics dictate that the actual risk is the opposite of what they think it is. As for corona, a huge mistake we're making is that we're looking at the death numbers for it, exclusively, myopically. We have to look at total mortality and total excess mortality, over time. A lot of things kill people all the time, and we never freak out about it. Flu seasons kill people all the time, and we never freak out about it. I'm Swedish, and Sweden has been mercilessly dragged through the shit in international comparisons over its handling of the virus. Sure, in isolation, covid-19 deaths in Sweden are much higher than its Scandinavian neighbours. But if you look at total all-cause mortality, and if you look at flu seasons instead of calendar years, the 2019/20 flu season in Sweden, with all the covid-19 deaths included has resulted in Sweden still being below average total mortality compared to the last 20 flu seasons. More people are alive, in Sweden, today, than the statistical average would predict. And this is a "disaster". How? The covid-19 dead in Sweden are overwhelmingly old people who were statistically likely to die already anyway, and them dying now from this is a "disgrace". How? No-one gave a shit about more old people dying from similar causes previous years, why does anyone suddenly give a shit now? Maddening and irrational. I am so tired.

__blockcipher__ 6y ago
Yeah, the way people will tell me "look at Sweden!", meaning, "look at how awful Sweden did!" is just mind-boggling. I am insanely jealous of your guys' medical/health leadership. I'm sure the approach of disfavoring ministerstyre bites you guys in the ass for certain types of problems, but for something like this, the fact that the ministers are not allowed to run the show is such a blessing. (Of course, if we tried it in the US it would almost certainly fail, because even people like Fauci or the CDC head are just completely crazy...but we're not allowed to admit that) -- Along similar lines, all the myopic IFR talk made me think about how, if we had a decade where there just happened to not be any major pandemics, a very generic common cold virus could come around with an IFR of >1% simply because there's such a high proportion of elderly people practically on death's door, who have been more or less artificially kept alive and so of course the IFR is going to look bad if it wipes them out.
- henrikschroder 6y ago
  > the fact that the ministers are not allowed to run the show is such a blessing. To be fair though, there's nothing stopping government from ignoring another government agency and doing their own thing, that's what basically happened in Denmark and Norway, where their governments enacted stricter measures than their own public health agencies recommended. The Swedish government could have done that, but it's currently a weak coalition government, which is why they adopted a more passive role. > if we had a decade where there just happened to not be any major pandemics In what I'm sure is a just a super coincidence, the past couple of flu seasons were extremely mild in Sweden, compared to neighbouring Denmark and Norway, which had normal flu seasons instead. I saw a twitter thread that talked about it in terms of brushfires and kindling. Dehumanizing, sure, but also pretty damn accurate: https://mobile.twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1277632502069252096 https://mobile.twitter.com/boriquagato/status/12776325020692...
- archagon 6y ago
  > even people like Fauci or the CDC head are just completely crazy I realize this is an appeal to authority, but when you say things like this, it makes it hard to take you seriously. "Completely crazy," really? Just read this guy's biography and tell me he's not qualified: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci Meanwhile, what we have on this forum is a bunch of 20-something tech kids throwing around research paper fragments that they've vacuumed up in their spare time. Gee, which of the two should I trust more?
  - __blockcipher__ 6y ago
    The policies they advocate (lockdown specifically, but also universal masking) are completely crazy. The policies that the CDC head is recommending for schools are completely crazy. The fact that Fauci has had such a long and successful and relevant career makes his failure here all the more painful. I think he’s a smart guy. But he was put in a highly stressful position, barely sleeping for months on end...I can’t fault someone in that type of situation for being unable to snap out of collective delusion. But yes, he’s still deluded. I understand why that statement of mine causes strong reactions. Indeed I considered omitting it because I know how many people reflexively downvote the moment they see that. But for better or worse I decided not to pull punches.

__blockcipher__ 6y ago

Yeah, the way people will tell me "look at Sweden!", meaning, "look at how awful Sweden did!" is just mind-boggling. I am insanely jealous of your guys' medical/health leadership. I'm sure the approach of disfavoring ministerstyre bites you guys in the ass for certain types of problems, but for something like this, the fact that the ministers are not allowed to run the show is such a blessing. (Of course, if we tried it in the US it would almost certainly fail, because even people like Fauci or the CDC head are just completely crazy...but we're not allowed to admit that) -- Along similar lines, all the myopic IFR talk made me think about how, if we had a decade where there just happened to not be any major pandemics, a very generic common cold virus could come around with an IFR of >1% simply because there's such a high proportion of elderly people practically on death's door, who have been more or less artificially kept alive and so of course the IFR is going to look bad if it wipes them out.

henrikschroder 6y ago
> the fact that the ministers are not allowed to run the show is such a blessing. To be fair though, there's nothing stopping government from ignoring another government agency and doing their own thing, that's what basically happened in Denmark and Norway, where their governments enacted stricter measures than their own public health agencies recommended. The Swedish government could have done that, but it's currently a weak coalition government, which is why they adopted a more passive role. > if we had a decade where there just happened to not be any major pandemics In what I'm sure is a just a super coincidence, the past couple of flu seasons were extremely mild in Sweden, compared to neighbouring Denmark and Norway, which had normal flu seasons instead. I saw a twitter thread that talked about it in terms of brushfires and kindling. Dehumanizing, sure, but also pretty damn accurate: https://mobile.twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1277632502069252096 https://mobile.twitter.com/boriquagato/status/12776325020692...
archagon 6y ago
> even people like Fauci or the CDC head are just completely crazy I realize this is an appeal to authority, but when you say things like this, it makes it hard to take you seriously. "Completely crazy," really? Just read this guy's biography and tell me he's not qualified: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci Meanwhile, what we have on this forum is a bunch of 20-something tech kids throwing around research paper fragments that they've vacuumed up in their spare time. Gee, which of the two should I trust more?
- __blockcipher__ 6y ago
  The policies they advocate (lockdown specifically, but also universal masking) are completely crazy. The policies that the CDC head is recommending for schools are completely crazy. The fact that Fauci has had such a long and successful and relevant career makes his failure here all the more painful. I think he’s a smart guy. But he was put in a highly stressful position, barely sleeping for months on end...I can’t fault someone in that type of situation for being unable to snap out of collective delusion. But yes, he’s still deluded. I understand why that statement of mine causes strong reactions. Indeed I considered omitting it because I know how many people reflexively downvote the moment they see that. But for better or worse I decided not to pull punches.