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> What I found was that the worst case scenario of lockdown is worse, and the average-case scenario is worse. That is assuming that prolonged lockdown continue
by berdon 6y ago
> What I found was that the worst case scenario of lockdown is worse, and the average-case scenario is worse.
That is assuming that prolonged lockdown continues to be our response. It clearly doesn't have to as other first-world countries cases have actually been floored.
Aside from complaining about our first run at this, we could/should probably just all wear masks and then spreading is mitigated such that new cases approach zero.
- __blockcipher__ 6y agoYou can't just lockdown and then stop, unless you eradicate the virus entirely, which is impossible. It only stops in the absence of lockdown when the herd immunity threshold is reached. Period. The only question is what that threshold is. Without these findings of heterogenous susceptibility, that threshold would be 70-90% depending on your estimate of the effective reproduction number. With these findings, that number drops to a much lower threshold. Much, much lower. -- If I can ask you one question, what is your explanation as to how cases have floored in other first-world countries, in the absence of herd immunity, if they are not practicing lockdown?