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I never said that old people are worthless. I just said that, it does not make sense to fight a virus with clearly-defined risk categories by shuttering a whole
by __blockcipher__ 6y ago
I never said that old people are worthless. I just said that, it does not make sense to fight a virus with clearly-defined risk categories by shuttering a whole society. And yes, I know the argument about "even if you won't have a bad outcome you will spread infection which will eventually kill grandma".
Overwhelmed healthcare systems are something we need an economy that's actually working to support. But note that most of what you've heard about ICU overrun is more or less a complete fabrication. Even New York, which got absolutely ravaged, had certain hospitals overflowing, yet nearby hospitals had tons of capacity. So yes, it's not ideal to have to shuffle patients around, but that's how our system is designed - we've had to do exactly that for just bad flu seasons, etc.
Anyway, ultimately, I feel that we are harming Grandma more with the lockdowns, particularly given that there is essentially no correlation between locking down and preventing death (actually the correlation is negative, and the inverse correlation, death being correlated with lockdown, supposedly does not exist although I didn't run the numbers myself to verify if that claim was true).
Finally, if you think about someone who is 80 years old and maybe has a couple health conditions, and thus a short life expectancy: What is the marginal cost to them of being locked down for a year? That might be 33% of their remaining life-time. Now, I'm not elderly so I can't speak for them, but I think many of us young-ish people have failed to think about the notion that the marginal utility of being able to live a normal life should be higher for old people. They more or less live in physical discomfort, and so the whole point of life at that age is to interact with your loved ones, sit on the patio and bask in the sun (or go to the beach), etc.
So, really we should give people the choice. If they want to self isolate and live a life bereft of human contact, more power to them. But to force it upon people who don't want it - which includes some or maybe many highly-at-risk old people with comorbidities - is wrong, in my opinion.
We (society) tried to act that haircuts, going to sports games, going to the beach, going to bars, etc were "non-essential". But when you think about it, that's literally what life is.
I get very saddened when I see 6 year olds walking around wearing masks (BTW, I always see them pull down their masks to wipe the sweat that has coated their face under the mask, which is one of many reasons why masks probably don't even work in the general public). It's extra sad when you realize that not only are kids not personally at risk, but overwhelming evidence shows - much to my personal surprise - that they don't even spread the damn thing in significant numbers.
No, everything about our response is wrong and counter-productive in my book, and it makes me sad that I can't express those views publicly without being screamed at by people who are, quite literally, brainwashed.
Fuck, the amount of people who used to show up to the office with very obvious flu symptoms a year ago, and now are screeching at people on twitter for having a maskless gathering in their backyard - is super depressing. The level of hypocrisy and more importantly, completely irrational risk appraisal, is so concerning to me. There's just no logical consistency to be found anywhere, I'm afraid.
- henrikschroder 6y ago> The level of hypocrisy and more importantly, completely irrational risk appraisal, is so concerning to me. Well, there's a well known human bias with regards to risk assessment. We consistently overvalue new and unfamiliar risks, and undervalue known and familiar risks. This is why some people are deathly afraid of getting on an airplane, but perfectly fine driving to the airport, even though statistics dictate that the actual risk is the opposite of what they think it is. As for corona, a huge mistake we're making is that we're looking at the death numbers for it, exclusively, myopically. We have to look at total mortality and total excess mortality, over time. A lot of things kill people all the time, and we never freak out about it. Flu seasons kill people all the time, and we never freak out about it. I'm Swedish, and Sweden has been mercilessly dragged through the shit in international comparisons over its handling of the virus. Sure, in isolation, covid-19 deaths in Sweden are much higher than its Scandinavian neighbours. But if you look at total all-cause mortality, and if you look at flu seasons instead of calendar years, the 2019/20 flu season in Sweden, with all the covid-19 deaths included has resulted in Sweden still being below average total mortality compared to the last 20 flu seasons. More people are alive, in Sweden, today, than the statistical average would predict. And this is a "disaster". How? The covid-19 dead in Sweden are overwhelmingly old people who were statistically likely to die already anyway, and them dying now from this is a "disgrace". How? No-one gave a shit about more old people dying from similar causes previous years, why does anyone suddenly give a shit now? Maddening and irrational. I am so tired.
- __blockcipher__ 6y agoYeah, the way people will tell me "look at Sweden!", meaning, "look at how awful Sweden did!" is just mind-boggling. I am insanely jealous of your guys' medical/health leadership. I'm sure the approach of disfavoring ministerstyre bites you guys in the ass for certain types of problems, but for something like this, the fact that the ministers are not allowed to run the show is such a blessing. (Of course, if we tried it in the US it would almost certainly fail, because even people like Fauci or the CDC head are just completely crazy...but we're not allowed to admit that) -- Along similar lines, all the myopic IFR talk made me think about how, if we had a decade where there just happened to not be any major pandemics, a very generic common cold virus could come around with an IFR of >1% simply because there's such a high proportion of elderly people practically on death's door, who have been more or less artificially kept alive and so of course the IFR is going to look bad if it wipes them out.