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These stories are always very nice and the plants cost effective, but are they true? Pakistan had a 100MW solar powerplant built for them. It actually ended up

These stories are always very nice and the plants cost effective, but are they true? Pakistan had a 100MW solar powerplant built for them. It actually ended up producing 18MW and required extensive amounts of water to clean the dust off of the panels.[0] I'm sure they were also told that renewables are cheap and will be great, but somehow everyone missed this. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaid-e-Azam_Solar_Park https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaid-e-Azam_Solar_Park

toomuchtodo 6y ago
There will be failures on the way to a fully renewable powered grid. India just turned up a 750MW facility successfully [1]. 70% of Texas coal plants are at risk of decommissioning as early as 2022 due to the amount of solar generation in the pipeline [2]. Spain is years ahead of schedule in coal decommissioning due to low cost renewables and pumped hydro storage capabilities being developed [3]. The UK is rapidly developing HVDC undersea cables to import clean hydro from Denmark and Norway [4]. Australia has over 130GW of renewables projects in the development pipeline (5x greater than the continent's entire fossil generation capacity) [5]. Seven countries are expected to end the use of coal by 2025: Portugal (2021), France (2022), Slovakia (2023), the UK (2024), Ireland (2025) and Italy (2025) (per Europe Beyond Coal) Politics and entrenched interests will have no choice but to accept market forces. The sun dumps enough power on the Earth in an hour to power all of humanity for a year, and it's mostly free for the taking. [1] http://ddnews.gov.in/business/pm-modi-dedicate-nation-750-mw-rewa-solar-project-mp http://ddnews.gov.in/business/pm-modi-dedicate-nation-750-mw... [2] https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/07/new-report-finds-texas-utility-scale-solar-growth-may-push-remaining-coal-plants-into-retirement/ https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/07/new-report-fin... [3] https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-06-29/spain-to-close-half-its-coal-fired-power-stations.html https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-06-29/s... [4] https://electrek.co/2020/07/14/worlds-longest-subsea-power-cable-viking-link-uk-denmark/ https://electrek.co/2020/07/14/worlds-longest-subsea-power-c... [5] https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/10/26/australias-pipeline-of-renewable-energy-projects-swells-over-130-gw/ https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/10/26/australias-...
- steeve 6y ago
  "India just turned up a 750MW facility successfully" That number doesn't say much, since the actual output will be a small percentage of that (15-20%).
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    It's low carbon generation getting built that otherwise would've been gas or coal. India only has about 7GW of nuclear generation capacity (with ~5GW in development), but has a target of 100GW of solar by 2022 (which between cheap labor and cheap hardware, is entirely feasible). Ground mount utility scale solar is very cheap per MWh, and very fast to deploy (years, not decades).
- twic 6y ago
  > The UK is rapidly developing HVDC undersea cables to import clean hydro from Denmark and Norway That struck me as odd, because Denmark is flat as a pancake - it's basically an overgrown sandbank laid down by Norway's fjords. But the article explains that the cable will carry power from Norwegian hydro plants, which for some reason comes via Denmark. There is a direct cable from Norway to the UK, but i suppose this adds some redundancy, which is good. And, as the article notes, allows the UK to export surplus power (from wind?) to Denmark. On Denmark being flat, here is its highest point - note that in the photo, the highest point isn't visible, because it's behind a barn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%B8lleh%C3%B8j https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%B8lleh%C3%B8j
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    > And, as the article notes, allows the UK to export surplus power (from wind?) to Denmark. Correct. Quite a bit of offshore wind potential Great Britain. https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/06/12/great-britain-becomes-europes-second-highest-producer-of-wind/ https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/06/12/great-britai...
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    For some reason could be explained by looking at [1] https://openinframap.org/#4.88/56.67/8.34/L,P https://openinframap.org/#4.88/56.67/8.34/L,P By going via Denmark the distance under water is shorter. Also continental Europe, mainly Germany and Benelux slurped the power first, so the infrastructures have already been there. Why not use them as much as possible, i guess? Although recently some direct point-to-point has been built.
dv_dt 6y ago
I have a feeling the civil projects in Pakistan have a different success rate than maybe other places. And even apart from that one sample is not really conclusive of anything.
__s 6y ago
There will be unsuccessful projects, which while we should learn from them, shouldn't be the anecdotes to condemn a technology Here's a retrospective, ie an attempt at looking at how things have actually played out compared to projections we're often fed, https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/downloads/retrospective-benefit-cost-evaluation-doe-investment-photovoltaic-energy https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/downloads/retrospective-be... (Chapter 5 of pdf is what looks into your question) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source also aggregates information to try answer your question
- dv_dt 6y ago
  The Lazard reports mentioned in your second link are a nice read. They look forward at estimated lifetime costs of power that might be projects started today. https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019/

toomuchtodo 6y ago

There will be failures on the way to a fully renewable powered grid. India just turned up a 750MW facility successfully [1]. 70% of Texas coal plants are at risk of decommissioning as early as 2022 due to the amount of solar generation in the pipeline [2]. Spain is years ahead of schedule in coal decommissioning due to low cost renewables and pumped hydro storage capabilities being developed [3]. The UK is rapidly developing HVDC undersea cables to import clean hydro from Denmark and Norway [4]. Australia has over 130GW of renewables projects in the development pipeline (5x greater than the continent's entire fossil generation capacity) [5]. Seven countries are expected to end the use of coal by 2025: Portugal (2021), France (2022), Slovakia (2023), the UK (2024), Ireland (2025) and Italy (2025) (per Europe Beyond Coal) Politics and entrenched interests will have no choice but to accept market forces. The sun dumps enough power on the Earth in an hour to power all of humanity for a year, and it's mostly free for the taking. [1] http://ddnews.gov.in/business/pm-modi-dedicate-nation-750-mw-rewa-solar-project-mp http://ddnews.gov.in/business/pm-modi-dedicate-nation-750-mw... [2] https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/07/new-report-finds-texas-utility-scale-solar-growth-may-push-remaining-coal-plants-into-retirement/ https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/07/new-report-fin... [3] https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-06-29/spain-to-close-half-its-coal-fired-power-stations.html https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-06-29/s... [4] https://electrek.co/2020/07/14/worlds-longest-subsea-power-cable-viking-link-uk-denmark/ https://electrek.co/2020/07/14/worlds-longest-subsea-power-c... [5] https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/10/26/australias-pipeline-of-renewable-energy-projects-swells-over-130-gw/ https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/10/26/australias-...

steeve 6y ago
"India just turned up a 750MW facility successfully" That number doesn't say much, since the actual output will be a small percentage of that (15-20%).
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  It's low carbon generation getting built that otherwise would've been gas or coal. India only has about 7GW of nuclear generation capacity (with ~5GW in development), but has a target of 100GW of solar by 2022 (which between cheap labor and cheap hardware, is entirely feasible). Ground mount utility scale solar is very cheap per MWh, and very fast to deploy (years, not decades).
twic 6y ago
> The UK is rapidly developing HVDC undersea cables to import clean hydro from Denmark and Norway That struck me as odd, because Denmark is flat as a pancake - it's basically an overgrown sandbank laid down by Norway's fjords. But the article explains that the cable will carry power from Norwegian hydro plants, which for some reason comes via Denmark. There is a direct cable from Norway to the UK, but i suppose this adds some redundancy, which is good. And, as the article notes, allows the UK to export surplus power (from wind?) to Denmark. On Denmark being flat, here is its highest point - note that in the photo, the highest point isn't visible, because it's behind a barn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%B8lleh%C3%B8j https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%B8lleh%C3%B8j
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  > And, as the article notes, allows the UK to export surplus power (from wind?) to Denmark. Correct. Quite a bit of offshore wind potential Great Britain. https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/06/12/great-britain-becomes-europes-second-highest-producer-of-wind/ https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/06/12/great-britai...
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  For some reason could be explained by looking at [1] https://openinframap.org/#4.88/56.67/8.34/L,P https://openinframap.org/#4.88/56.67/8.34/L,P By going via Denmark the distance under water is shorter. Also continental Europe, mainly Germany and Benelux slurped the power first, so the infrastructures have already been there. Why not use them as much as possible, i guess? Although recently some direct point-to-point has been built.

dv_dt 6y ago

I have a feeling the civil projects in Pakistan have a different success rate than maybe other places. And even apart from that one sample is not really conclusive of anything.

__s 6y ago

There will be unsuccessful projects, which while we should learn from them, shouldn't be the anecdotes to condemn a technology Here's a retrospective, ie an attempt at looking at how things have actually played out compared to projections we're often fed, https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/downloads/retrospective-benefit-cost-evaluation-doe-investment-photovoltaic-energy https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/downloads/retrospective-be... (Chapter 5 of pdf is what looks into your question) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source also aggregates information to try answer your question

dv_dt 6y ago
The Lazard reports mentioned in your second link are a nice read. They look forward at estimated lifetime costs of power that might be projects started today. https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019/