6 ms·

Which vaccines are more promising in terms of longer term immunity? Bloomberg reports CanSino one seems to be better than Moderna on that and it only requires o

Which vaccines are more promising in terms of longer term immunity? Bloomberg reports CanSino one seems to be better than Moderna on that and it only requires one shot.

SiempreViernes 6y ago
Well, these are still the "will it kill a human" rounds of testing, so any predictions are premature. As are confident guesses and gut feelings. I think we're at about "vague hunch" certainty on how well these vaccines will work in the field.
rollinggoron 6y ago
Phase 1 studies don't test the efficacy of the drug, just what kind of side effects are observed. Phase 2/3 is where the drug is tested to see if it actually works.
- kgwgk 6y ago
  Not just side effects in this case.
claudeganon 6y ago
It’s possible that longer term immunity (> 3 months) isn’t even possible. There’s initial evidence of reinfections in that time frame, which means that vaccines would only last about that long and “herd immunity” is impossible: https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic...
- kardos 6y ago
  So do we solve that with 4x a year vaccination?
  - greesil 6y ago
    At least until something better comes along.
    - macintux 6y ago
      I'd be curious how long, and how much money would be required, to ramp up vaccine production to 20+ billion doses/year.
      - loeg 6y ago
        Just spitballing here, but I'd expect it's several orders of magnitude cheaper than keeping the economy shut down for the same duration.
    - tzs 6y ago
      Wouldn't it be sufficient to just keep it up until you reach a point where you've had a couple weeks with no known active cases in your country? (Assuming similar for the rest of the world, with travel restrictions or quarantines on people traveling from places where there are active cases). In places with good contact tracing, they should mostly be able to keep it at near zero after that point by tracing and self-quarantine, occasionally needing to use the vaccine on a whole city if you find that you had a super-spreader event. In places without good contract tracing, it would be similar except the threshold at which you need to vaccinate the city would be lower.
      - URSpider94 6y ago
        That’s assuming that everyone in your city is vaccinated, and that the vaccine is 100% effective. We’ve had a measles vaccine for three generations, we still have the measles. We’ve had a polio vaccine for three generations, polio is not eliminated.
        trhway 6y ago
        i'm very pro-vaccine in general (grew up in USSR and, until coming to US, didn't know that "anti-vaccine" can even exist in modern society :), yet recently and very surprisingly for myself i caught myself thinking that i will be very hesitant about getting a vaccine which is rushed through Trump's FDA to meet election day targeting schedule and to get the first dibs on the Operation Warp Speed billions - i think Trump's second term is a direct function of whether he'd triumphantly announce vaccine in the last week of October or not, and i fully expect that he would. Choosing between such a vaccine and a straight coronavirus with well-known low risk profile for my group - i'm still undecided :) So, i'd guess there would be a lot of people who wouldn't be rushing to get the vaccine.
- subsubzero 6y ago
  I asked a family member(who worked in pharma) the same thing, he said if that is the case you still don't need to worry, basically its booster shots 2-3 times a year until its gone throughout the population. What is slightly worrying is what about less advanced countries who can't get this many doses.
dicomdan 6y ago
What you're saying about CanSino is purely false and smells of propaganda: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/07/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-was-just-approved-for-li.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/07/cansinos-covid-19-... It's not even a serious candidate due to lack of efficacy and actually dangerous side effects, so far.
- dang 6y ago
  > smells of propaganda That breaks the site guidelines, and we ban accounts that do that, so please don't. Your comment would be just fine with the link and the second sentence. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
snapetom 6y ago
People are skeptical about CanSino due to the way it works and, right or wrong, worries about Chinese data. The Oxford vaccine is the front runner. They're doing several Phase III trials right now, and people are taking that to be a good sign - that they want to present plenty of evidence of efficacy. The downside is that it's two doses and you're still going to get COVID-19. It's just that the effects are far less severe.

Which vaccines are more promising in terms of longer term immunity? Bloomberg reports CanSino one seems to be better than Moderna on that and it only requires one shot.

SiempreViernes 6y ago

Well, these are still the "will it kill a human" rounds of testing, so any predictions are premature. As are confident guesses and gut feelings. I think we're at about "vague hunch" certainty on how well these vaccines will work in the field.

rollinggoron 6y ago

Phase 1 studies don't test the efficacy of the drug, just what kind of side effects are observed. Phase 2/3 is where the drug is tested to see if it actually works.

kgwgk 6y ago
Not just side effects in this case.

claudeganon 6y ago

It’s possible that longer term immunity (> 3 months) isn’t even possible. There’s initial evidence of reinfections in that time frame, which means that vaccines would only last about that long and “herd immunity” is impossible: https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic...

kardos 6y ago
So do we solve that with 4x a year vaccination?
- greesil 6y ago
  At least until something better comes along.
  - macintux 6y ago
    I'd be curious how long, and how much money would be required, to ramp up vaccine production to 20+ billion doses/year.
    - loeg 6y ago
      Just spitballing here, but I'd expect it's several orders of magnitude cheaper than keeping the economy shut down for the same duration.
  - tzs 6y ago
    Wouldn't it be sufficient to just keep it up until you reach a point where you've had a couple weeks with no known active cases in your country? (Assuming similar for the rest of the world, with travel restrictions or quarantines on people traveling from places where there are active cases). In places with good contact tracing, they should mostly be able to keep it at near zero after that point by tracing and self-quarantine, occasionally needing to use the vaccine on a whole city if you find that you had a super-spreader event. In places without good contract tracing, it would be similar except the threshold at which you need to vaccinate the city would be lower.
    - URSpider94 6y ago
      That’s assuming that everyone in your city is vaccinated, and that the vaccine is 100% effective. We’ve had a measles vaccine for three generations, we still have the measles. We’ve had a polio vaccine for three generations, polio is not eliminated.
      - trhway 6y ago
        i'm very pro-vaccine in general (grew up in USSR and, until coming to US, didn't know that "anti-vaccine" can even exist in modern society :), yet recently and very surprisingly for myself i caught myself thinking that i will be very hesitant about getting a vaccine which is rushed through Trump's FDA to meet election day targeting schedule and to get the first dibs on the Operation Warp Speed billions - i think Trump's second term is a direct function of whether he'd triumphantly announce vaccine in the last week of October or not, and i fully expect that he would. Choosing between such a vaccine and a straight coronavirus with well-known low risk profile for my group - i'm still undecided :) So, i'd guess there would be a lot of people who wouldn't be rushing to get the vaccine.
subsubzero 6y ago
I asked a family member(who worked in pharma) the same thing, he said if that is the case you still don't need to worry, basically its booster shots 2-3 times a year until its gone throughout the population. What is slightly worrying is what about less advanced countries who can't get this many doses.

dicomdan 6y ago

What you're saying about CanSino is purely false and smells of propaganda: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/07/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-was-just-approved-for-li.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/07/cansinos-covid-19-... It's not even a serious candidate due to lack of efficacy and actually dangerous side effects, so far.

dang 6y ago
> smells of propaganda That breaks the site guidelines, and we ban accounts that do that, so please don't. Your comment would be just fine with the link and the second sentence. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

snapetom 6y ago

People are skeptical about CanSino due to the way it works and, right or wrong, worries about Chinese data. The Oxford vaccine is the front runner. They're doing several Phase III trials right now, and people are taking that to be a good sign - that they want to present plenty of evidence of efficacy. The downside is that it's two doses and you're still going to get COVID-19. It's just that the effects are far less severe.