3 ms·

Human challenge studies need to be seriously lined up right now as a part of phase III work. (Human challenge studies mean giving people the full vaccine dose,

Human challenge studies need to be seriously lined up right now as a part of phase III work. (Human challenge studies mean giving people the full vaccine dose, checking for antibodies, then giving a dose of the actual disease). The consensus seems to be "they are not ethical", which is an extreme, beaucratic, twisted set of ethics. Small challenge studies of 100 people, who have a low risk profile, who volunteer to help their friends, family, and humanity will give us a lot of confidence to move forward. The fatality rate of a soldier volunteering in the US for world war Ii was about 2%. For young healthy volunteers, we are talking something like 2 orders of magnitude less risk, for more clear marginal benefit than being one extra soldier in a war. I feel that this isn't being lined up is negligent insanity. (If you want to volunteer without any commitment https://1daysooner.org/ https://1daysooner.org/ - no affiliation although I volunteered).

ljf 6y ago
Remember that is just the risk of death. My wife is young (40 yo) fit and healthy, and 115 days after contracting covid she is still ill with post covid symptoms - there is no way she could work still and cannot look after or even play with our kids. On her post covid support group it mainly seems to be women over 40 and men from 20 to 50 - though only about 7000 people who self selected to join the group so that might not be representative. Just saying that while risk of death are low, there are other risks - though as yet poorly understood and researched.
- quicklime 6y ago
  If the challenge trial is done properly (i.e. with a representative sample of the population) then wouldn't all risks - both known and not-yet-known - apply to both the trial participants as well as the general population?
  - ljf 6y ago
    Agree - just with the trial you will have a 100 percent chance or being exposed directly to the virus. Not saying the risk isn't worth taking, just that the only risk is not death.
    - lostapathy 6y ago
      Sounds like we're well on our way to having a 100% chance of being directly exposed anyway.
      - ljf 6y ago
        Sadly I agree - though we've got to remember it is possible to get this virus and the transmission under control - plenty of places are winning the battle - it just takes will and coordination. But something every country has currently...
- steve_adams_86 6y ago
  I had this experience, though with a different virus. It’s no joke. I was in above average shape, able to run fast and far, lift heavy things, free dive deep and long, etc. After a two week illness, I couldn’t lift my hands above my head and I haven’t run more than 10km since, let alone at <5m per km. It has been 4 years. It wrecked my lungs and I think even caused mild nerve damage. If COVID is doing similar things to people, it’s very serious. It’s potentially life altering. I genuinely suspect I will never be as healthy or as strong as I was. I didn’t believe this could happen to healthy people in their 20s, especially not someone who could run a half marathon on a whim, but humans simply aren’t invulnerable.
  - ljf 6y ago
    So sorry to hear that - the more we have read about the post viral issues from SARs, ebola and the 'spanish flu', the more we see that there are a huge number of people affected in very different ways. For the first 3 months we totally felt disbelieved by doctors and even some friends - 'are you sure it isn't just anxiety?'. Slowly doctors are realising that while the majority do recover, a not insignificant group will be affected for a lager period of time. Total guess but even if the number of long term cases is the same as those that die, and if on average they can't work for 6 months (conservative) then the economic impacts on those people and their families can be huge. I really hope you see light at the end of the tunnel and take it easy.
    - steve_adams_86 6y ago
      Thank you, and likewise - I hope your wife continues to recover and it doesn’t impact your family too much. I think the reality of sickness is often a revelation once it happens. It’s hard to believe what an impact it can have, seemingly arbitrarily. But with the right support and the right state of mind, recovery is often possible despite being difficult. After a point it just doesn’t happen on its own. It’s another part of life, something to learn from I suppose.
- rurp 6y ago
  Just to add to your excellent post, the same mistake happens with war casualties. A war might kill "only" 2% of the soldiers, but for every soldier killed there are many who suffer significant physical and/or mental harm that impacts the rest of their life.

ljf 6y ago

Remember that is just the risk of death. My wife is young (40 yo) fit and healthy, and 115 days after contracting covid she is still ill with post covid symptoms - there is no way she could work still and cannot look after or even play with our kids. On her post covid support group it mainly seems to be women over 40 and men from 20 to 50 - though only about 7000 people who self selected to join the group so that might not be representative. Just saying that while risk of death are low, there are other risks - though as yet poorly understood and researched.

quicklime 6y ago
If the challenge trial is done properly (i.e. with a representative sample of the population) then wouldn't all risks - both known and not-yet-known - apply to both the trial participants as well as the general population?
- ljf 6y ago
  Agree - just with the trial you will have a 100 percent chance or being exposed directly to the virus. Not saying the risk isn't worth taking, just that the only risk is not death.
  - lostapathy 6y ago
    Sounds like we're well on our way to having a 100% chance of being directly exposed anyway.
    - ljf 6y ago
      Sadly I agree - though we've got to remember it is possible to get this virus and the transmission under control - plenty of places are winning the battle - it just takes will and coordination. But something every country has currently...
steve_adams_86 6y ago
I had this experience, though with a different virus. It’s no joke. I was in above average shape, able to run fast and far, lift heavy things, free dive deep and long, etc. After a two week illness, I couldn’t lift my hands above my head and I haven’t run more than 10km since, let alone at <5m per km. It has been 4 years. It wrecked my lungs and I think even caused mild nerve damage. If COVID is doing similar things to people, it’s very serious. It’s potentially life altering. I genuinely suspect I will never be as healthy or as strong as I was. I didn’t believe this could happen to healthy people in their 20s, especially not someone who could run a half marathon on a whim, but humans simply aren’t invulnerable.
- ljf 6y ago
  So sorry to hear that - the more we have read about the post viral issues from SARs, ebola and the 'spanish flu', the more we see that there are a huge number of people affected in very different ways. For the first 3 months we totally felt disbelieved by doctors and even some friends - 'are you sure it isn't just anxiety?'. Slowly doctors are realising that while the majority do recover, a not insignificant group will be affected for a lager period of time. Total guess but even if the number of long term cases is the same as those that die, and if on average they can't work for 6 months (conservative) then the economic impacts on those people and their families can be huge. I really hope you see light at the end of the tunnel and take it easy.
  - steve_adams_86 6y ago
    Thank you, and likewise - I hope your wife continues to recover and it doesn’t impact your family too much. I think the reality of sickness is often a revelation once it happens. It’s hard to believe what an impact it can have, seemingly arbitrarily. But with the right support and the right state of mind, recovery is often possible despite being difficult. After a point it just doesn’t happen on its own. It’s another part of life, something to learn from I suppose.
rurp 6y ago
Just to add to your excellent post, the same mistake happens with war casualties. A war might kill "only" 2% of the soldiers, but for every soldier killed there are many who suffer significant physical and/or mental harm that impacts the rest of their life.