7 ms·
Pasting from linked twitter thread, while this is encouraging, some things are left to be desired: 1) No data for the most vulnerable older (>55) population 2
by pen2l 6y ago
Pasting from linked twitter thread, while this is encouraging, some things are left to be desired:
1) No data for the most vulnerable older (>55) population
2) Second dose absolutely necessary
3) Safety profile less than desirable
4) Durability of neutralizing Ab not so encouraging (decline from day 43~57)
5) Very low CD8 T-cell responses
Novavas phase I results (NVX-CoV2373), probably due to be out soon, will be interesting.
- objektif 6y agoWhich vaccines are more promising in terms of longer term immunity? Bloomberg reports CanSino one seems to be better than Moderna on that and it only requires one shot.
- SiempreViernes 6y agoWell, these are still the "will it kill a human" rounds of testing, so any predictions are premature. As are confident guesses and gut feelings. I think we're at about "vague hunch" certainty on how well these vaccines will work in the field.
- rollinggoron 6y agoPhase 1 studies don't test the efficacy of the drug, just what kind of side effects are observed. Phase 2/3 is where the drug is tested to see if it actually works.
- kgwgk 6y agoNot just side effects in this case.
- claudeganon 6y agoIt’s possible that longer term immunity (> 3 months) isn’t even possible. There’s initial evidence of reinfections in that time frame, which means that vaccines would only last about that long and “herd immunity” is impossible: https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twic...
- kardos 6y agoSo do we solve that with 4x a year vaccination?
- greesil 6y agoAt least until something better comes along.
- macintux 6y agoI'd be curious how long, and how much money would be required, to ramp up vaccine production to 20+ billion doses/year.
- loeg 6y agoJust spitballing here, but I'd expect it's several orders of magnitude cheaper than keeping the economy shut down for the same duration.
- tzs 6y agoWouldn't it be sufficient to just keep it up until you reach a point where you've had a couple weeks with no known active cases in your country? (Assuming similar for the rest of the world, with travel restrictions or quarantines on people traveling from places where there are active cases). In places with good contact tracing, they should mostly be able to keep it at near zero after that point by tracing and self-quarantine, occasionally needing to use the vaccine on a whole city if you find that you had a super-spreader event. In places without good contract tracing, it would be similar except the threshold at which you need to vaccinate the city would be lower.
- URSpider94 6y agoThat’s assuming that everyone in your city is vaccinated, and that the vaccine is 100% effective. We’ve had a measles vaccine for three generations, we still have the measles. We’ve had a polio vaccine for three generations, polio is not eliminated.
- dicomdan 6y agoWhat you're saying about CanSino is purely false and smells of propaganda: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/07/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-was-just-approved-for-li.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/07/cansinos-covid-19-... It's not even a serious candidate due to lack of efficacy and actually dangerous side effects, so far.
- dang 6y ago> smells of propaganda That breaks the site guidelines, and we ban accounts that do that, so please don't. Your comment would be just fine with the link and the second sentence. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- snapetom 6y agoPeople are skeptical about CanSino due to the way it works and, right or wrong, worries about Chinese data. The Oxford vaccine is the front runner. They're doing several Phase III trials right now, and people are taking that to be a good sign - that they want to present plenty of evidence of efficacy. The downside is that it's two doses and you're still going to get COVID-19. It's just that the effects are far less severe.
- cactus2093 6y agoWhat's the issue with the safety profile?
- tempsy 6y agoProbably referring to the fact the majority had fairly noticeable side effects especially with the second dose. One person taking the highest dose had a 103+ fever with the second... If this is happening in healthy young people, what will the side effects look like for older or more vulnerable people who actually need it the most?
- mlyle 6y ago> If this is happening in healthy young people, what will the side effects look like for older or more vulnerable people who actually need it the most? May be better on that axis (only way to know is to do the trial). Efficacy, on the other hand, is likely to be lower. Both sides of the same coin: you probably get less of a response from the old.
- loeg 6y agoTest subjects were 18-55 — I guess I wouldn't say that's exclusively "healthy young people" other than in comparison to the 80+ group which is most in danger. But we are mostly on the same page — is the cure worse (or equally bad) as the disease for the 60-70, 70-80, 80+ populations? Even if the vaccine is not suitable for the older groups, high vaccination rates in younger people may be enough to drop the rate of infection significantly below 1.0, eventually conferring herd immunity for the immunocompromised.
- capkutay 6y agoThey already eliminated the highest dose given the lower dose also produced significant antibodies.
- koheripbal 6y agoyeah, and I don't see fever as a significant negative symptom. It's really just an indication that the immune system is working. Fever is very common in vaccines, especially in children.
- dicomdan 6y agoStock market is reacting very positively to this vaccine. The journal paper and health analysts consider immune response to be significant after booster and side effects relatively minor in all participants. Yet here you're quoting a Twitter posts that is brought to the top of the discussion on HN despite being not a primary or secondary, but a tertiary source.
- ProAm 6y ago> Stock market is reacting very positively to this vaccine. The stock market should be considered because of why?
- ihattendorf 6y agoBecause some people have this idea that the stock market is able to perfectly understand risk in all situations to the point that it can be used to make decisions itself.
- ct520 6y agoI’m not sure what to say here other then. A fool and their money will soon be parted. I personally don’t know anyone that holds that opinion as you stated above .
- hellofunk 6y agoIf you honestly believe that, I certainly hope you’re not actively trading the market!
- koheripbal 6y agoIn many cases, that's correct - but not when the issue is emotional and outside the normal investor field of expertise.
- klondike_klive 6y agoBecause of your use of the words "some people" and "perfectly" I'm reading your comment as sarcasm.
- capkutay 6y ago> Very low CD8 T-cell responses Do we know if this is actually an issue? A lower CD8 t-cell response might be expected given it's an RNA vaccine.
- fuzzythinker 6y agoINO-4800 phase I peer review results will be out soon.