3 ms·

> who knows what will happen if the population declines. Hopefully, a declining population will lead to an oversupply of housing. Existing homeowners will do t

by kijin 6y ago

> who knows what will happen if the population declines. Hopefully, a declining population will lead to an oversupply of housing. Existing homeowners will do their damnedest to prop up prices by any means possible, but it can't last forever. Housing prices will crash sooner or later. It will probably happen in each country long before a its population has halved. Cost of housing is currently a huge factor in declining fertility in many countries. Who has time to raise kids when they have to work two jobs just to pay rent? But once it becomes more affordable to raise a family, fertility trends are likely to reverse until it a new balance is reached. This is just one of the many factors that might come into play over the next 80 years that popular predictions about 2100 tend to glance over.

dragonwriter 6y ago
> Hopefully, a declining population will lead to an oversupply of housing. It won't without policy controls, otherwise, housing units will be redeveloped into other uses (including smaller numbers of larger units designed and managed in a way to foster single-family occupancy per unit.) > Cost of housing is currently a huge factor in declining fertility. [citation needed]
arp242 6y ago
In many areas the shortage of housing isn't really one of space, lack of housing, or population, but rather that everyone wants a house in the same urban areas, mostly due to the availability of jobs. If you want a house in Ireland for example, then the country-side is dirt cheap, but if you want one in Dublin or Cork then be prepared to pay through the nose. The situation seems similar in most countries. I'm not sure what a solution for this will be, but I'm not sure if population decline will be a major contributor.
- kijin 6y ago
  Urban areas usually have a younger population than rural areas do, so I think it's safe to assume that a dramatic change in the number of young people will affect housing prices in cities more than in rural areas. For example, that block of crappy houses near the university would be worth a lot less without a steady stream of students to rent them out to.
  - arp242 6y ago
    I think it's a bit more complex than that, houses decay over time and need replacing and upkeep. If we want sufficient housing in 50 years we need to maintain the upkeep as well, which will probably only be done according to "supply and demand", so there may still be a shortage just because many houses won't be maintained sufficiently. In quite a few cities you already see quite a lot of housing just left derelict even though there's a housing shortage. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a larger part of the then-old people will want to keep living in the city, as that's where they've been living their entire lives (which differs a bit from today's old population). I don't know ... it's really hard to predict these things. It could very well be the case that you're right, but personally I wouldn't really bet on population decline significantly reducing the pressure on the housing situation. It seems more of an economical/policy issue to me than a population issue.

by kijin 6y ago

dragonwriter 6y ago

> Hopefully, a declining population will lead to an oversupply of housing. It won't without policy controls, otherwise, housing units will be redeveloped into other uses (including smaller numbers of larger units designed and managed in a way to foster single-family occupancy per unit.) > Cost of housing is currently a huge factor in declining fertility. [citation needed]

arp242 6y ago

In many areas the shortage of housing isn't really one of space, lack of housing, or population, but rather that everyone wants a house in the same urban areas, mostly due to the availability of jobs. If you want a house in Ireland for example, then the country-side is dirt cheap, but if you want one in Dublin or Cork then be prepared to pay through the nose. The situation seems similar in most countries. I'm not sure what a solution for this will be, but I'm not sure if population decline will be a major contributor.

kijin 6y ago
Urban areas usually have a younger population than rural areas do, so I think it's safe to assume that a dramatic change in the number of young people will affect housing prices in cities more than in rural areas. For example, that block of crappy houses near the university would be worth a lot less without a steady stream of students to rent them out to.
- arp242 6y ago
  I think it's a bit more complex than that, houses decay over time and need replacing and upkeep. If we want sufficient housing in 50 years we need to maintain the upkeep as well, which will probably only be done according to "supply and demand", so there may still be a shortage just because many houses won't be maintained sufficiently. In quite a few cities you already see quite a lot of housing just left derelict even though there's a housing shortage. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a larger part of the then-old people will want to keep living in the city, as that's where they've been living their entire lives (which differs a bit from today's old population). I don't know ... it's really hard to predict these things. It could very well be the case that you're right, but personally I wouldn't really bet on population decline significantly reducing the pressure on the housing situation. It seems more of an economical/policy issue to me than a population issue.