9 ms·

> "It's just that the faster mirroring, feedback and propagation of digits over atoms are generating waves rather than ripples. Beware of tsunamis." that's how

> "It's just that the faster mirroring, feedback and propagation of digits over atoms are generating waves rather than ripples. Beware of tsunamis." that's how the hysteria concerning corona has crashed all over our economy and social infrastructure. as in, lockdowns won't stop the virus and they're immaterially better than distancing (with masks for when you can't), but the economic and social costs (including the politically motivated backlash) are massive, and yet we keep imposing that enormous cost on ourselves to make us feel like we're doing something about it, no matter how trivial the effect or how great the costs, to assuage our irrational fears.

gameswithgo 6y ago
ICU filled up fast in Houston after the lockdown ended. How does that fit with your idea here?
- clairity 6y ago
  correlation not causation. the end of lockdown unleashed pent-up frustration and disregard for even simple yet effective distancing precautions--a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater behavior as backlash.
  - whatshisface 6y ago
    >correlation not causation. >the end of lockdown unleashed pent-up frustration and disregard* The debate totally set aside, realize that you proposed a causal relationship one sentence after saying "correlation not causation."
    - clairity 6y ago
      yes, but "undistancing->more cases" is a simpler if subtler explanation than "unlockdown->more cases", and thereby invalidating the implied causation of the question via occam's razor.
  - kerkeslager 6y ago
    Arguing this at the level of "What should individuals do?" makes no sense, because we have little-to-no data on how effective masks or social distancing are at that level. We're really at the infancy stages of understanding this virus--keep in mind up until a few weeks ago we thought spread from high traffic surfaces was a major transmission vector. At the level of "What should government recommend?"--that's a fundamentally different question from "What should individuals do?" because governments have secondary effects such as people throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Policy decisions have to take into account this effect, so saying that this effect is the real cause of a sudden spike in cases after lockdown ended, is irrelevant. At a policy level, lockdown is more effective than social distancing and masks, and that's because when you lift the lockdown, people don't social distance or wear masks. I live in a town where businesses that attract tourism have reopened. People are wearing masks as chin straps and congregating, and that wasn't happening during lockdown. And to be clear, there are other factors: a country which creates numerous hurdles to access for even the miniscule aid it provides to the poor cannot be surprised when the poor don't want to give up what little income they have to comply with a lockdown. But we have to admit, lockdowns work. That's a fact. The fact that our economy is so fragile that it can't handle the only effective countermeasure to this virus is a separate fact.
    - clairity 6y ago
      no, the point is that lockdowns, being basically a superset of distancing, don't add enough protection/reduction on top of distancing for it's enormous cost.
      - kerkeslager 6y ago
        I understood that as your point the first time. And I'm saying, if you don't lock down, distancing doesn't happen. It's more complex than just that, but that's the gist.
        iateanapple 6y ago
        > And I'm saying, if you don't lock down, distancing doesn't happen. First - our lockdowns were mostly unenforced (except against businesses). Bars were closed but house parties raged. Second - Sweden didn’t do lockdowns and yet people did practice social distancing.
titzer 6y ago
> as in, lockdowns won't stop the virus I wish we could be done with this absolutely false misinformation. Case in point, New Zealand is COVID free.
- ZephyrBluu 6y ago
  Not completely, we still have a few active cases as far as I'm aware. We also basically shut down our borders, which I don't think is that feasible for a lot of other countries.
  - titzer 6y ago
    There have been weeks-long stretches within the past month where New Zealand has had no active cases. Currently, there are 2, apparently new, according to this: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/... This is about as close to "eliminated" as you can get; the new cases are all from incoming international travel. This directly refutes the OP's statement that lockdowns "won't stop the virus."
    - zaroth 6y ago
      Lucky for them to be a tiny island nation with totally controlled borders. Long Island alone is almost twice as big. Early on when New York was surging and Trump suggested limiting inter-state travel Cuomo suggested that would be akin to a federal declaration of war. [1] It can be true that strategies that might work for New Zealand could never possibly work for the continental US. Hawaii has a similar situation, got new case count down to zero for a few days, but are dealing with a few cases per day recently. [1] - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/donald-trump-virginia-usns-comfort-travel https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/donald-trump...
      - vmh1928 6y ago
        The good thing about the scientific method is you can decide what you are doing isn't working and try something else.
dang 6y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23839314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23839314.

gameswithgo 6y ago

ICU filled up fast in Houston after the lockdown ended. How does that fit with your idea here?

clairity 6y ago
correlation not causation. the end of lockdown unleashed pent-up frustration and disregard for even simple yet effective distancing precautions--a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater behavior as backlash.
- whatshisface 6y ago
  >correlation not causation. >the end of lockdown unleashed pent-up frustration and disregard* The debate totally set aside, realize that you proposed a causal relationship one sentence after saying "correlation not causation."
  - clairity 6y ago
    yes, but "undistancing->more cases" is a simpler if subtler explanation than "unlockdown->more cases", and thereby invalidating the implied causation of the question via occam's razor.
- kerkeslager 6y ago
  Arguing this at the level of "What should individuals do?" makes no sense, because we have little-to-no data on how effective masks or social distancing are at that level. We're really at the infancy stages of understanding this virus--keep in mind up until a few weeks ago we thought spread from high traffic surfaces was a major transmission vector. At the level of "What should government recommend?"--that's a fundamentally different question from "What should individuals do?" because governments have secondary effects such as people throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Policy decisions have to take into account this effect, so saying that this effect is the real cause of a sudden spike in cases after lockdown ended, is irrelevant. At a policy level, lockdown is more effective than social distancing and masks, and that's because when you lift the lockdown, people don't social distance or wear masks. I live in a town where businesses that attract tourism have reopened. People are wearing masks as chin straps and congregating, and that wasn't happening during lockdown. And to be clear, there are other factors: a country which creates numerous hurdles to access for even the miniscule aid it provides to the poor cannot be surprised when the poor don't want to give up what little income they have to comply with a lockdown. But we have to admit, lockdowns work. That's a fact. The fact that our economy is so fragile that it can't handle the only effective countermeasure to this virus is a separate fact.
  - clairity 6y ago
    no, the point is that lockdowns, being basically a superset of distancing, don't add enough protection/reduction on top of distancing for it's enormous cost.
    - kerkeslager 6y ago
      I understood that as your point the first time. And I'm saying, if you don't lock down, distancing doesn't happen. It's more complex than just that, but that's the gist.
      - iateanapple 6y ago
        > And I'm saying, if you don't lock down, distancing doesn't happen. First - our lockdowns were mostly unenforced (except against businesses). Bars were closed but house parties raged. Second - Sweden didn’t do lockdowns and yet people did practice social distancing.

titzer 6y ago

> as in, lockdowns won't stop the virus I wish we could be done with this absolutely false misinformation. Case in point, New Zealand is COVID free.

ZephyrBluu 6y ago
Not completely, we still have a few active cases as far as I'm aware. We also basically shut down our borders, which I don't think is that feasible for a lot of other countries.
- titzer 6y ago
  There have been weeks-long stretches within the past month where New Zealand has had no active cases. Currently, there are 2, apparently new, according to this: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/... This is about as close to "eliminated" as you can get; the new cases are all from incoming international travel. This directly refutes the OP's statement that lockdowns "won't stop the virus."
  - zaroth 6y ago
    Lucky for them to be a tiny island nation with totally controlled borders. Long Island alone is almost twice as big. Early on when New York was surging and Trump suggested limiting inter-state travel Cuomo suggested that would be akin to a federal declaration of war. [1] It can be true that strategies that might work for New Zealand could never possibly work for the continental US. Hawaii has a similar situation, got new case count down to zero for a few days, but are dealing with a few cases per day recently. [1] - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/donald-trump-virginia-usns-comfort-travel https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/donald-trump...
    - vmh1928 6y ago
      The good thing about the scientific method is you can decide what you are doing isn't working and try something else.

dang 6y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23839314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23839314.