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And it won't come close to Theranos. Tesla makes real products that are class-leading. Class-leading in what sense(s)? Even if Tesla can't reach level 5, it w

And it won't come close to Theranos. Tesla makes real products that are class-leading. Class-leading in what sense(s)? Even if Tesla can't reach level 5, it will be damn close But that's the problem with self-driving cars. Damn close isn't good enough. A miss is as good as a mile. The problem with the self-driving/automation scale is that anything around levels 2-4 probably shouldn't be allowed on public roads, at least not yet. Basic driver aids, where the driver is always fully engaged but the system can help to avoid mistakes, are proven to improve safety. This is what you get at level 1, and such technologies are already widespread in the industry. If we can ever make a fully autonomous vehicle that can genuinely cope with any driving conditions, so you don't need any driver or controls in the vehicle any more, then obviously this has the potential to beat human drivers. This is level 5. But we don't know how to do this yet, and I have seen absolutely no evidence so far that anyone will know how to do it any time soon either. In between, we have several variations where a human driver is required for some of the monitoring and control of the vehicle but not all. This has some horrible safety implications, particularly around the transitions between human- and vehicle-controlled modes of operation, and around creating a false sense of security for the human driver. The legal small print will probably say that they must remain fully alert and able to take over immediately at any time, but whether it is within human capability to actually do that effectively is an entirely different question. and make driving 10-100x safer than just a human. I've been driving for more than 25 years, and racked up hundreds of thousands of miles behind the wheel. I've never caused an accident, as far as I'm aware. I've never had a ticket. I try to be courteous to my fellow road users and give a comfortable ride to any passengers I have with me. What, in your opinion, would driving 10-100x safer than mine look like? Humans certainly aren't perfect drivers and we have plenty of variation in ability. Things can go wrong, and I'm sure we'd all be happy to see fewer tragedies on our roads. But given the vast amounts of travel we undertake and how many of us do drive, autonomous vehicles will need an extremely good record -- far better than they have so far -- to justify the sort of claim you're making here.

ummonk 6y ago
Level 5 isn't the only safe level. Level 4 is safe too - e.g. a car that is fully capable of driving itself without human monitoring in slow stop and go traffic on a highway. Levels 2 and 3 are the danger zone (and it worries me that car systems have gone ahead from level 1 to level 2, as having the human steer ensures driver attentiveness which is harder to maintain when the car does lane centering for you).
- Silhouette 6y ago
  Level 5 isn't the only safe level. Level 4 is safe too I agree that, by definition, this is necessarily true. The catch I see is that the same definition is predicated on the vehicle being able to safely end the journey before entering any unsupported situation, without requiring any driver interaction. I'm not aware that we have any known strategy for solving that problem in the general case that would not achieve level 5 anyway. I acknowledge that in specific situations like geofencing, where a vehicle does effectively operate at level 5 but only under predetermined conditions, that would be level 4 according to the scale. However, it's the ability to operate fully autonomously, albeit within those boundaries, that makes the vehicle safe in this scenario. So, what happens if external conditions (for example, directions by a police officer, or some sort of road accident or severe weather) mean that the vehicle cannot safely remain within the area where it can operate autonomously? Unlike a vehicle with a human driver, it cannot adapt and safely leave that area either. In short, unless perhaps we're also going to have a new set of rules and possibly some separated infrastructure for use with level 4 vehicles, I'm not sure they can ever fully match the safety of a human driver without necessarily reaching level 5.
perl4ever 6y ago
>But that's the problem with self-driving cars. Damn close isn't good enough. A miss is as good as a mile Maybe close is good enough. The problem as I see it that people usually don't seem to be focused on is that it's impossible for humans to monitor the situation while doing other stuff. You can only do that when you're far away from other things like in a plane or on a boat. How can we simultaneously believe it's possible to instantly engage with driving and that people can't be trusted to text or make phone calls while driving?
- Silhouette 6y ago
  How can we simultaneously believe it's possible to instantly engage with driving and that people can't be trusted to text or make phone calls while driving? Exactly. Driving while distracted by phones is well-known to be very dangerous, which is why it's against the law in many places. Encouraging drivers who might need to take over in an emergency to zone out and focus on other activities seems unwise for the same reason. This is why the middle levels on the self-driving scale could be very dangerous.

ummonk 6y ago

Level 5 isn't the only safe level. Level 4 is safe too - e.g. a car that is fully capable of driving itself without human monitoring in slow stop and go traffic on a highway. Levels 2 and 3 are the danger zone (and it worries me that car systems have gone ahead from level 1 to level 2, as having the human steer ensures driver attentiveness which is harder to maintain when the car does lane centering for you).

Silhouette 6y ago
Level 5 isn't the only safe level. Level 4 is safe too I agree that, by definition, this is necessarily true. The catch I see is that the same definition is predicated on the vehicle being able to safely end the journey before entering any unsupported situation, without requiring any driver interaction. I'm not aware that we have any known strategy for solving that problem in the general case that would not achieve level 5 anyway. I acknowledge that in specific situations like geofencing, where a vehicle does effectively operate at level 5 but only under predetermined conditions, that would be level 4 according to the scale. However, it's the ability to operate fully autonomously, albeit within those boundaries, that makes the vehicle safe in this scenario. So, what happens if external conditions (for example, directions by a police officer, or some sort of road accident or severe weather) mean that the vehicle cannot safely remain within the area where it can operate autonomously? Unlike a vehicle with a human driver, it cannot adapt and safely leave that area either. In short, unless perhaps we're also going to have a new set of rules and possibly some separated infrastructure for use with level 4 vehicles, I'm not sure they can ever fully match the safety of a human driver without necessarily reaching level 5.

perl4ever 6y ago

>But that's the problem with self-driving cars. Damn close isn't good enough. A miss is as good as a mile Maybe close is good enough. The problem as I see it that people usually don't seem to be focused on is that it's impossible for humans to monitor the situation while doing other stuff. You can only do that when you're far away from other things like in a plane or on a boat. How can we simultaneously believe it's possible to instantly engage with driving and that people can't be trusted to text or make phone calls while driving?

Silhouette 6y ago
How can we simultaneously believe it's possible to instantly engage with driving and that people can't be trusted to text or make phone calls while driving? Exactly. Driving while distracted by phones is well-known to be very dangerous, which is why it's against the law in many places. Encouraging drivers who might need to take over in an emergency to zone out and focus on other activities seems unwise for the same reason. This is why the middle levels on the self-driving scale could be very dangerous.