This seems to be evidence of the theory that herd immunity is lower than expected due to cross-reactive T-cells lowering the susceptible pool. If I recall corre

This seems to be evidence of the theory that herd immunity is lower than expected due to cross-reactive T-cells lowering the susceptible pool. If I recall correctly, the last serology study of NYC showed ~25% infection rate, which is right where those postulating this theory expect the virus to burn out at. While this isn't the only ingredient, and physical distancing and awareness play a role, it is good to see more and more locations exhibit the same burn-out pattern. I do not think that there is a single location thus far that does _not_ show this pattern (including Sweden!). The biggest potential outlier is Iran. However, Iran has some similarities to the United States in that a majority of the population lives within dispersed population centers. As such, we should look at each _region_ (as opposed to the country as a whole), when considering the theory above. Much as we must do with the United States. Miami is on it's first wave, as is Houston etc. What I am really looking for is any evidence of a true second wave, and thus far there hasn't been any. And NYC would be ripe for one. Due to its density, even with the best of intentions, there will be close contact and opportunity to spread the virus. Long story short, this is very, very, very good news. EDIT: I want to add, that the refusal many people to see the United States as as collection of different outbreaks as opposed to a single, massive outbreak is very frustrating. We can't have an honest conversation regarding the best response to this virus when everyone is trying to score nation-state points over the fact that the US still has cases. Yes, the first region is _not_ seeing a resurgence. The outbreaks in the South are _new_. They sprang up in the past few weeks. This is fundamentally different than what we saw in the EU, as each country had their outbreaks at around the same time. If you want to compare, compare NY state to others. We can't make progress if continue to be either smug/defensive. This isn't a game. Additional Reading: Swedish T-Cell study: https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-t... NYC Serology: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/preliminary-antibodies-study-shows-21-of-new-york-city-infected https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/preliminary-antibodies-... Study from Levitt et. al.: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v2.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v... Study in Cell on T-Cells: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420306103 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742...