There have been multiple publications in the last month suggesting that a substantial fraction (i.e. 40% or more) of the population could have some level of cel

There have been multiple publications in the last month suggesting that a substantial fraction (i.e. 40% or more) of the population could have some level of cell-mediated immunity to the virus. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-... https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1 On top of that, the threshold where growth slows is substantially lower than the “herd immunity threshold” that is naïvely calculated from R0. The flu almost never infects more than 10-15% of the population, despite an R0 of around 1.8, and a corresponding “herd immunity” threshold in the 50% range. A recent Science paper suggested a more reasonable herd immunity threshold of 43% for Sars-CoV2. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/scie... Between the two, it’s not inconceivable that NYC has reached the point where virus transmission is substantially self-limited. It’s not even a remote possibility - it’s likely.