5 ms·

Lol I'd say we still have about 50 years to go. Plus Porsche will cater to enthusiasts. I know I will always have at least 1 gas car

toomuchtodo 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... Scroll down to the countries starting to ban fossil fuel vehicles. I think you’re fine for the next 10-15 years, after that I think it’s hazy whether fossil fuel vehicles will be permitted to be used at all if battery electrics take off. My bet is we reach a tipping point and an outright ban around 2035, if not earlier due to refinery unprofitability due to volume declines. I do look forward to Porsche attempting a competitive EV though! @JumpCrisscross: Throttled, can’t reply to your comment. “Progress happens slowly, and then all of a sudden.”
- dpoochieni 6y ago
  Think it will become a matter of having enough money. Maybe it'll cost 10X more but as with all these kinds of policies and restrictions, $ will still speak. Since most of the bans you point to are about new cars, I can already bet that the price for used combustion engine cars will skyrocket depending on model. Hmmm, makes me wonder how one could play this market
- JumpCrisscross 6y ago
  > we reach a tipping point and an outright ban around 2035 Zero chance of this happening in the U.S., U.K. or Germany. I imagine the Gulf, India and China will similarly retain sport driving cultures. Mass-manufactured ICE vehicles are past their nadir. But mechanical engines will have a long life thereafter.
  - joshspankit 6y ago
    Based on what? The minority may love the nostalgia, but sport racing cultures are primarily built on speed and ICE vehicles are already being left in the dust. Another 10 years and I would be surprised if there was a single ICE vehicle that could beat an electric.
    - mc32 6y ago
      Only thing I can think of is growl. Some people like that.
      - userbinator 6y ago
        As someone whose daily driver has a throaty mildly-tuned V8, I can agree. ;-)
      - joshspankit 6y ago
        Be easy enough to hook a speaker system to the acceleration
        Gibbon1 6y ago
        I think they are already doing stuff like that.
    - theluketaylor 6y ago
      There is some racing that lends itself to electric like stage rally, rally cross and the drag strip. I'd love to drive an electric rally cross car, especially since it's one of the most accessible forms of racing out there. Circuit racing (in particular endurance racing) is a long way from electrics being competitive (though LMP1 cars certainly use a hybrid powertrain to boost speeds). Le Mans cars currently cover over 5000 km in 24 hours. When Porsche stretched the Taycan to the limit they managed 3300 km in 24 hours. That's roughly a 1950s Le Mans pace (and that as when the track had fewer turns and longer straights).
    - TylerE 6y ago
      The engine is very, very, rarely the limit in racecar performance. They're very tightly regulated.
      - joshspankit 6y ago
        We’re talking engine and transmission at minimum. Torque from an electric engine is insane. Tesla prototypes literally tore the transmissions apart. This is why a Tesla has the second fastest 0-60 time of 2.28 sec, and the low-end model (Model 3) still has a quick 3.0 sec time
  - Ericson2314 6y ago
    s/nadir/zenith/, sorry
- elif 6y ago
  there is also a natural cliff where gas stations lose profitability. Considering many today only profit due to convenience store items, and consumer patterns have radically changed involving less random spending as well as less miles driven, this may be even sooner than we think.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- swagonomixxx 6y ago
  I think diesel vehicles in metropolitan areas are the worst offenders. Travelling around Europe, I think these were my biggest pet peeve, as an otherwise incredible and quaint city (such as Porto or Malaga) ends up being tainted with the disgusting smell of diesel fumes. Petroleum only would be a huge improvement. Of course, electric only would even be better.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... Scroll down to the countries starting to ban fossil fuel vehicles. I think you’re fine for the next 10-15 years, after that I think it’s hazy whether fossil fuel vehicles will be permitted to be used at all if battery electrics take off. My bet is we reach a tipping point and an outright ban around 2035, if not earlier due to refinery unprofitability due to volume declines. I do look forward to Porsche attempting a competitive EV though! @JumpCrisscross: Throttled, can’t reply to your comment. “Progress happens slowly, and then all of a sudden.”

dpoochieni 6y ago
Think it will become a matter of having enough money. Maybe it'll cost 10X more but as with all these kinds of policies and restrictions, $ will still speak. Since most of the bans you point to are about new cars, I can already bet that the price for used combustion engine cars will skyrocket depending on model. Hmmm, makes me wonder how one could play this market
JumpCrisscross 6y ago
> we reach a tipping point and an outright ban around 2035 Zero chance of this happening in the U.S., U.K. or Germany. I imagine the Gulf, India and China will similarly retain sport driving cultures. Mass-manufactured ICE vehicles are past their nadir. But mechanical engines will have a long life thereafter.
- joshspankit 6y ago
  Based on what? The minority may love the nostalgia, but sport racing cultures are primarily built on speed and ICE vehicles are already being left in the dust. Another 10 years and I would be surprised if there was a single ICE vehicle that could beat an electric.
  - mc32 6y ago
    Only thing I can think of is growl. Some people like that.
    - userbinator 6y ago
      As someone whose daily driver has a throaty mildly-tuned V8, I can agree. ;-)
    - joshspankit 6y ago
      Be easy enough to hook a speaker system to the acceleration
      - Gibbon1 6y ago
        I think they are already doing stuff like that.
  - theluketaylor 6y ago
    There is some racing that lends itself to electric like stage rally, rally cross and the drag strip. I'd love to drive an electric rally cross car, especially since it's one of the most accessible forms of racing out there. Circuit racing (in particular endurance racing) is a long way from electrics being competitive (though LMP1 cars certainly use a hybrid powertrain to boost speeds). Le Mans cars currently cover over 5000 km in 24 hours. When Porsche stretched the Taycan to the limit they managed 3300 km in 24 hours. That's roughly a 1950s Le Mans pace (and that as when the track had fewer turns and longer straights).
  - TylerE 6y ago
    The engine is very, very, rarely the limit in racecar performance. They're very tightly regulated.
    - joshspankit 6y ago
      We’re talking engine and transmission at minimum. Torque from an electric engine is insane. Tesla prototypes literally tore the transmissions apart. This is why a Tesla has the second fastest 0-60 time of 2.28 sec, and the low-end model (Model 3) still has a quick 3.0 sec time
- Ericson2314 6y ago
  s/nadir/zenith/, sorry
elif 6y ago
there is also a natural cliff where gas stations lose profitability. Considering many today only profit due to convenience store items, and consumer patterns have radically changed involving less random spending as well as less miles driven, this may be even sooner than we think.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
swagonomixxx 6y ago
I think diesel vehicles in metropolitan areas are the worst offenders. Travelling around Europe, I think these were my biggest pet peeve, as an otherwise incredible and quaint city (such as Porto or Malaga) ends up being tainted with the disgusting smell of diesel fumes. Petroleum only would be a huge improvement. Of course, electric only would even be better.