6 ms·

What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent hi

by 6nf 6y ago

What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent history? Does that mean 0.5% is too low to shut everything down?

mayneack 6y ago
This puts the IFR of the worst flu in recent history (2009 H1N1) at 0.03% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Comparisons_to_other_pandemics_and_epidemics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Compar...
FabHK 6y ago
First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.
- 6nf 6y ago
  Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    That's the precise logical fallacy the article highlights - that mortality is not the only significant component here.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - FabHK 6y ago
    That has no bearing whatsoever on what I said. For small kids, the flu and COVID-19 are the same - they're encountering it for the first time, and are basically ok with it. With adults, flu and COVID-19 are different: they have encountered the flu before, so it doesn't rampage through a population. COVID-19 does. In other words: for flu, we basically have achieved some level of herd immunity already.
  - vicosity 6y ago
    Yeah but children are getting that inflammatory syndrome.. Thats pretty devastating. A life ruined but still alive can basically be counted as a death.
    - 6nf 6y ago
      Even if you count those it will still round to zero
  - chillfox 6y ago
    That feels like a lie considering I keep seeing articles about young people dying from covid.
    - 6nf 6y ago
      A quick google search will show many studies for covid mortality by age. The news media likes to tug on heart strings by pointing to kids or LGBT or black or whatever people affected by covid even though the numbers are miniscule.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
    "Basically at 0%" doesn't cut it with a national population of 330M. 0.02% of school age children ... yeah, that indeed rounds to zero ... it also rounds to 14-15k dead children.
- vicosity 6y ago
  Yes the flu does... You can develop heart failure with the flu for example. People die because of this.
topkai22 6y ago
I'm pretty sure the last time the flu got anywhere near a 0.5% IFR rate was the 1918 pandemic, which also devested the economy and resulted in shutdowns. Covid-19 also is substantially more transmissible than flu. There is nothing since 1918 that is comparable to where we are now, at least within the US context. Even the polio outbreaks (where in schools, movie theaters, pools and other features were shutdown to protect kids) don't really compare.
- 6nf 6y ago
  The 1918 pandemic was 2.5% Just wanted to point that out since the way you worded your comment could lead people to believe that it was closer to 0.5%
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    The IFR for the 1918 pandemic was substantially higher than 2.5%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n... > It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. That'd be a 10% IFR.
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      I think 2-2.5% frequently cited is the estimated IFR in the US.
      - topkai22 6y ago
        I've only seen 2-2.5% cited as a CFR (case fatality rate) for 1918 influenza in the US, not the IFR (infection fatality rate). I don't know if those are assumed to be equivalent for are assumed to be retrospective analysis, but the CFR rate and IFR remain significantly different for COVID-19- ~4% for the all up US CFR rate and estimates anywhere from 0.1% to 1% for the COVID-19 IFR in the US.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? One of the more severe strains of the flu? 10% globally (1918 H1N1 pandemic flu, estimated 500 million infected, 50 million killed), about 2% in the US. > I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent history? No, and certainly not one that also was a global pandemic. I mean, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic swine flu had, in the US, about 0.02% mortality. Typical seasonal flu has a 0.1% mortality rate. The common cold is a syndrome caused by a variety of viruses (mostly rhinoviruses, but I think the next most common are coronaviruses.) If we had a relative of one of those that produced serious health impacts with any frequency, we wouldn't call it the common cold, but, e.g., COVID-19. > Does that mean 0.5% is too low to shut everything down? The mortality rate alone is not the measure. You need to consider the health system burden per infection (because if you saturate that system, mortality goes up, and not just for the infection causing the above-normal saturation.) And you need to consider how infectious the disease is, and what the transmission vectors are. And you need to consider the incidence of severe-but-nonfatal effects.

by 6nf 6y ago

mayneack 6y ago

This puts the IFR of the worst flu in recent history (2009 H1N1) at 0.03% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Comparisons_to_other_pandemics_and_epidemics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Compar...

FabHK 6y ago

First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.

6nf 6y ago
Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  That's the precise logical fallacy the article highlights - that mortality is not the only significant component here.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- FabHK 6y ago
  That has no bearing whatsoever on what I said. For small kids, the flu and COVID-19 are the same - they're encountering it for the first time, and are basically ok with it. With adults, flu and COVID-19 are different: they have encountered the flu before, so it doesn't rampage through a population. COVID-19 does. In other words: for flu, we basically have achieved some level of herd immunity already.
- vicosity 6y ago
  Yeah but children are getting that inflammatory syndrome.. Thats pretty devastating. A life ruined but still alive can basically be counted as a death.
  - 6nf 6y ago
    Even if you count those it will still round to zero
- chillfox 6y ago
  That feels like a lie considering I keep seeing articles about young people dying from covid.
  - 6nf 6y ago
    A quick google search will show many studies for covid mortality by age. The news media likes to tug on heart strings by pointing to kids or LGBT or black or whatever people affected by covid even though the numbers are miniscule.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
  "Basically at 0%" doesn't cut it with a national population of 330M. 0.02% of school age children ... yeah, that indeed rounds to zero ... it also rounds to 14-15k dead children.
vicosity 6y ago
Yes the flu does... You can develop heart failure with the flu for example. People die because of this.

topkai22 6y ago

I'm pretty sure the last time the flu got anywhere near a 0.5% IFR rate was the 1918 pandemic, which also devested the economy and resulted in shutdowns. Covid-19 also is substantially more transmissible than flu. There is nothing since 1918 that is comparable to where we are now, at least within the US context. Even the polio outbreaks (where in schools, movie theaters, pools and other features were shutdown to protect kids) don't really compare.

6nf 6y ago
The 1918 pandemic was 2.5% Just wanted to point that out since the way you worded your comment could lead people to believe that it was closer to 0.5%
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  The IFR for the 1918 pandemic was substantially higher than 2.5%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n... > It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. That'd be a 10% IFR.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    I think 2-2.5% frequently cited is the estimated IFR in the US.
    - topkai22 6y ago
      I've only seen 2-2.5% cited as a CFR (case fatality rate) for 1918 influenza in the US, not the IFR (infection fatality rate). I don't know if those are assumed to be equivalent for are assumed to be retrospective analysis, but the CFR rate and IFR remain significantly different for COVID-19- ~4% for the all up US CFR rate and estimates anywhere from 0.1% to 1% for the COVID-19 IFR in the US.

dragonwriter 6y ago

> What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? One of the more severe strains of the flu? 10% globally (1918 H1N1 pandemic flu, estimated 500 million infected, 50 million killed), about 2% in the US. > I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent history? No, and certainly not one that also was a global pandemic. I mean, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic swine flu had, in the US, about 0.02% mortality. Typical seasonal flu has a 0.1% mortality rate. The common cold is a syndrome caused by a variety of viruses (mostly rhinoviruses, but I think the next most common are coronaviruses.) If we had a relative of one of those that produced serious health impacts with any frequency, we wouldn't call it the common cold, but, e.g., COVID-19. > Does that mean 0.5% is too low to shut everything down? The mortality rate alone is not the measure. You need to consider the health system burden per infection (because if you saturate that system, mortality goes up, and not just for the infection causing the above-normal saturation.) And you need to consider how infectious the disease is, and what the transmission vectors are. And you need to consider the incidence of severe-but-nonfatal effects.