5 ms·

The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?

nostromo 6y ago
My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were never tested/counted.
- Xavdidtheshadow 6y ago
  > deaths (the more important number) One of the more interesting things I've been reading is that we shouldn't think about this as a total binary. There are reports that survivors exhibit have long-term effects, such as neurological issues [1] and lung damage. So yes, it's good that fewer people are dying! But that doesn't mean everything is simply great now. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-ef...
  - Bahamut 6y ago
    My guess is that the deaths probably would maintain roughly the same rate for the true number of infected, which is a number we do not know because of asymptomatic cases. That numbers of people testing positive is going up doesn’t mean that the overall rate is going up given we do not know the true infected rate, but number of deaths provides a reasonable proxy for that.
    - fragmede 6y ago
      We understand the disease a bit better, and have better treatments (eg dexamethasone) than we had in March, so I'd expect the true fatality to go down somewhat. (read carefully, this is not in contradiction with the CDC raising their estimate of the IFR). Better treatments are of no use if hospitals are overwhelmed, unfortunately.
    - dwaltrip 6y ago
      The percentage of tests with a positive result has increased, which indicates an increase in the true number of cases. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
- codezero 6y ago
  Deaths may look stable/going down, but that's potentially difficult to understand given regional reporting. I think deaths are naturally down as the "first wave" hit many long term care facilities with a much higher death rate than the rest of the population. Check out the SF data: comparing "All California" to Bay Area shows that we're rising in cases and deaths in california as a whole, but flat/declining in northern california. This phenomenon, I believe, is happening all over the place. https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
- morsch 6y ago
  > We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It happened a week ago. It's easier to see when you look at a moving average. https://imgur.com/a/xGLRjGa https://imgur.com/a/xGLRjGa https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajectory-per-million?yScale=linear&zoomToSelection=true&time=..&country=DEU~USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...
  - nostromo 6y ago
    Yes, there's a blip at the end of the chart. But the headline is clearly that deaths have fallen ~70% even as total (reported) cases has continued to grow exponentially.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - anarazel 6y ago
      The US wide totals are muddling the picture substantially. Deaths have continued to shrink substantially in previously severely affected states like NY or NJ. The other big issue of course is lag. If you look at daily positive tests, current hospitalizations and newly reported deaths in one graph the lag becomes more visible. Here I e.g. just used a log y axis to show all three in one plot: https://anarazel.de/t/2020-07-13/all_in_one.png https://anarazel.de/t/2020-07-13/all_in_one.png which imo makes that more visible.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      That seems to me to be obfuscating the factors that everyone knows. Cases are growing exponentially in some states, while deaths fell tremendously in the states that previously had the most cases. California and Florida didn't have deaths fall 70%; they had deaths more or less plateau, while the age of the infected shifted younger, and now the increase in cases is getting to the point where it more than compensates for the lower death rate.
    - 6y ago
- throw0101a 6y ago
  > deaths (the more important number) Is it though? > For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. > 10 will have permanent lung damage. > 3 will have strokes. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. * https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shu...
  - azinman2 6y ago
    This is the point that so many people miss. We’re also 1/3 of the way to WWII deaths in the US.
  - banads 6y ago
    >18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. Adding critical context: Nearly half of americans are obese and/or have heart disease, and ~650,000 are killed by it each year. How much lower would all those numbers be if americans simply exercised and ate healthy on a regular basis?
  - refurb 6y ago
    How does this pass the sniff test (or am I misinterpreting it?). Assume 1% fatality rate for infections (it’s actually lower), you’re saying somewhere 19% to 60% (depending on overlap of those categories) have permanent damage? That’s clearly not what we’re seeing.
    - throw0101a 6y ago
      > How does this pass the sniff test (or am I misinterpreting it?). Article links to sources. Interpret as you will. Just a counter-'claim' against the GP that all we have to worry about is the fatality rate. As hospitals fill up, even with a low mortality rate, it means all sorts of other procedures are delayed or cancelled.
    - woeirua 6y ago
- anarazel 6y ago
  > Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. > We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. Your graph shows an increase over the last week. A rolling average shows that more clearly: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths If you look at the currently worse off regions / states you can see the rise in deaths more clearly. E.g. in the south and west there's a pretty clearly recognizable rise: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/regional-deaths https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/regional-deaths Here's a link to per-region stats: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state and some example states with pretty clear trends: AZ: https://public.tableau.com/shared/6GDK353C7?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y&:showVizHome=no https://public.tableau.com/shared/6GDK353C7?:display_count=y... CA: https://public.tableau.com/shared/GKK6SFGNR?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y https://public.tableau.com/shared/GKK6SFGNR?:display_count=y... FL: https://public.tableau.com/shared/P2SSPXC3Y?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y https://public.tableau.com/shared/P2SSPXC3Y?:display_count=y... TX: https://public.tableau.com/shared/M8KY224BR?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y https://public.tableau.com/shared/M8KY224BR?:display_count=y... > deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. Deaths are important, obviously, but they are also a severely lagging indicator. Edit: Formatting
- hvac 6y ago
  The linked NYT article says that deaths are up 28% over the last two weeks.
  - nostromo 6y ago
    ... after dropping 80% from the peak
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      The places that had the drop in deaths aren't the places that are having the exponential increase in cases now. It makes no sense to say that deaths have plummeted in NY, as cases have too, and therefore Arizona or Florida doesn't have to worry about deaths increasing as cases skyrocket.
- bachmeier 6y ago
  > We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It hasn't? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-in-florida-texas-california-arizona.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-i... You're mixing those states together with New York, for which cases and deaths are strongly positively correlated: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronav...
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- digsy 6y ago
  >We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. Deaths are down if you look at the US as a whole. However, if you look at the state level its not always the same picture. Florida's death toll is up from a 7-day rolling average of 51 in April (the peak of its first wave) to 71 as of yesterday.
- hvac 6y ago
  I can't edit my comment now, but I also just noticed that the CDC recently revised the IFR upwards from 0.26% to 0.65% (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...), apparently as of a few days ago. Our death rate estimates were too low, if anything.
- bigcorp-slave 6y ago
  Nostromo has been consistently spreading misinformation about the pandemic on HN since it started. When are they going to be banned? Having a wide and healthy discussion on this site does not require that we entertain people advocating mass death. The constant refrain that this isn’t a big deal seems belied somewhat by the five hundred thousand dead people.
- statop 6y ago
  You guess, keep hearing, seems pretty clear. Thanks doctor. Maybe next you can educate us on why the data you linked literally contradicts everything you said. The trend in deaths is increasing.

My guess is that no states will do that. Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png https://i.imgur.com/LMVNbBD.png We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It seems pretty clear now that even our low estimates of fatality were too high and that many people had Covid-19 in March/April/May and were never tested/counted.

Xavdidtheshadow 6y ago
> deaths (the more important number) One of the more interesting things I've been reading is that we shouldn't think about this as a total binary. There are reports that survivors exhibit have long-term effects, such as neurological issues [1] and lung damage. So yes, it's good that fewer people are dying! But that doesn't mean everything is simply great now. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-ef...
- Bahamut 6y ago
  My guess is that the deaths probably would maintain roughly the same rate for the true number of infected, which is a number we do not know because of asymptomatic cases. That numbers of people testing positive is going up doesn’t mean that the overall rate is going up given we do not know the true infected rate, but number of deaths provides a reasonable proxy for that.
  - fragmede 6y ago
    We understand the disease a bit better, and have better treatments (eg dexamethasone) than we had in March, so I'd expect the true fatality to go down somewhat. (read carefully, this is not in contradiction with the CDC raising their estimate of the IFR). Better treatments are of no use if hospitals are overwhelmed, unfortunately.
  - dwaltrip 6y ago
    The percentage of tests with a positive result has increased, which indicates an increase in the true number of cases. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
codezero 6y ago
Deaths may look stable/going down, but that's potentially difficult to understand given regional reporting. I think deaths are naturally down as the "first wave" hit many long term care facilities with a much higher death rate than the rest of the population. Check out the SF data: comparing "All California" to Bay Area shows that we're rising in cases and deaths in california as a whole, but flat/declining in northern california. This phenomenon, I believe, is happening all over the place. https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
morsch 6y ago
> We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It happened a week ago. It's easier to see when you look at a moving average. https://imgur.com/a/xGLRjGa https://imgur.com/a/xGLRjGa https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajectory-per-million?yScale=linear&zoomToSelection=true&time=..&country=DEU~USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...
- nostromo 6y ago
  Yes, there's a blip at the end of the chart. But the headline is clearly that deaths have fallen ~70% even as total (reported) cases has continued to grow exponentially.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - anarazel 6y ago
    The US wide totals are muddling the picture substantially. Deaths have continued to shrink substantially in previously severely affected states like NY or NJ. The other big issue of course is lag. If you look at daily positive tests, current hospitalizations and newly reported deaths in one graph the lag becomes more visible. Here I e.g. just used a log y axis to show all three in one plot: https://anarazel.de/t/2020-07-13/all_in_one.png https://anarazel.de/t/2020-07-13/all_in_one.png which imo makes that more visible.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    That seems to me to be obfuscating the factors that everyone knows. Cases are growing exponentially in some states, while deaths fell tremendously in the states that previously had the most cases. California and Florida didn't have deaths fall 70%; they had deaths more or less plateau, while the age of the infected shifted younger, and now the increase in cases is getting to the point where it more than compensates for the lower death rate.
  - 6y ago
throw0101a 6y ago
> deaths (the more important number) Is it though? > For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. > 10 will have permanent lung damage. > 3 will have strokes. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. > 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. * https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shu...
- azinman2 6y ago
  This is the point that so many people miss. We’re also 1/3 of the way to WWII deaths in the US.
- banads 6y ago
  >18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. Adding critical context: Nearly half of americans are obese and/or have heart disease, and ~650,000 are killed by it each year. How much lower would all those numbers be if americans simply exercised and ate healthy on a regular basis?
- refurb 6y ago
  How does this pass the sniff test (or am I misinterpreting it?). Assume 1% fatality rate for infections (it’s actually lower), you’re saying somewhere 19% to 60% (depending on overlap of those categories) have permanent damage? That’s clearly not what we’re seeing.
  - throw0101a 6y ago
    > How does this pass the sniff test (or am I misinterpreting it?). Article links to sources. Interpret as you will. Just a counter-'claim' against the GP that all we have to worry about is the fatality rate. As hospitals fill up, even with a low mortality rate, it means all sorts of other procedures are delayed or cancelled.
  - woeirua 6y ago
anarazel 6y ago
> Even as the number of cases goes up, deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. > We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. Your graph shows an increase over the last week. A rolling average shows that more clearly: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths If you look at the currently worse off regions / states you can see the rise in deaths more clearly. E.g. in the south and west there's a pretty clearly recognizable rise: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/regional-deaths https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/regional-deaths Here's a link to per-region stats: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state and some example states with pretty clear trends: AZ: https://public.tableau.com/shared/6GDK353C7?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y&:showVizHome=no https://public.tableau.com/shared/6GDK353C7?:display_count=y... CA: https://public.tableau.com/shared/GKK6SFGNR?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y https://public.tableau.com/shared/GKK6SFGNR?:display_count=y... FL: https://public.tableau.com/shared/P2SSPXC3Y?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y https://public.tableau.com/shared/P2SSPXC3Y?:display_count=y... TX: https://public.tableau.com/shared/M8KY224BR?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y https://public.tableau.com/shared/M8KY224BR?:display_count=y... > deaths (the more important number) keeps coming down. Deaths are important, obviously, but they are also a severely lagging indicator. Edit: Formatting
hvac 6y ago
The linked NYT article says that deaths are up 28% over the last two weeks.
- nostromo 6y ago
  ... after dropping 80% from the peak
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    The places that had the drop in deaths aren't the places that are having the exponential increase in cases now. It makes no sense to say that deaths have plummeted in NY, as cases have too, and therefore Arizona or Florida doesn't have to worry about deaths increasing as cases skyrocket.
bachmeier 6y ago
> We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It hasn't? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-in-florida-texas-california-arizona.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-i... You're mixing those states together with New York, for which cases and deaths are strongly positively correlated: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronav...
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
digsy 6y ago
>We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. Deaths are down if you look at the US as a whole. However, if you look at the state level its not always the same picture. Florida's death toll is up from a 7-day rolling average of 51 in April (the peak of its first wave) to 71 as of yesterday.
hvac 6y ago
I can't edit my comment now, but I also just noticed that the CDC recently revised the IFR upwards from 0.26% to 0.65% (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...), apparently as of a few days ago. Our death rate estimates were too low, if anything.
bigcorp-slave 6y ago
Nostromo has been consistently spreading misinformation about the pandemic on HN since it started. When are they going to be banned? Having a wide and healthy discussion on this site does not require that we entertain people advocating mass death. The constant refrain that this isn’t a big deal seems belied somewhat by the five hundred thousand dead people.
statop 6y ago
You guess, keep hearing, seems pretty clear. Thanks doctor. Maybe next you can educate us on why the data you linked literally contradicts everything you said. The trend in deaths is increasing.