I agree with you, but I don't think the author made a "therefore, X will not happen" claim, at least not a strong one. The ham radio analogy is quite good, up

I agree with you, but I don't think the author made a "therefore, X will not happen" claim, at least not a strong one. The ham radio analogy is quite good, up to a point. Bitcoin as an alternative, backup technology kept alive by enthusiasts. When disaster strikes, bitcoin will be there. It has a good sized market cap. There are some services. It could be used to pay for things or get your salary, it just isn't today because regular money. No need for ham radio while cellphones work, unless you're an enthusiast with your own reasons. I also think he has a point about narrative. Ham radio is ready to step up when disaster strikes. Bitcoin is ready to cash in. Make what you will of this normatively, but there's truth in the comparison. Where the analogy breaks down (and where I agree with you) is what happens next. Monetary systems have a history of collapsing, and then being constituted under new rules. Progress, such as it is, proceeds from one disaster to the next. Whether that's currency pegs, gold standard, whatever. Change happens in the wake of failure. If Bitcoin can be such a change, it will need an appropriate disaster. I do think it's worth examining narratives. Bitcoin has carried a heavy payload of narrative since day one. One such narrative was an organic, "disruption" trajectory. Bitcoin would gradually be adopted for transactions and build up. Maybe online shopping. Maybe remittances. There was much discussion of the roles of money: denomination, value transfer, etc. Bitcoin had a disintermediation narrative, potentially replacing CCs, retail banks and demonopolizing the space. Are these narratives still relevant? In retrospect, bitcoin's first decade narrative is "speculation." That's what drove interest, market cap, enthusiasm & price. Most users don't need a bitcoin wallet, they just their bank to make it an investable asset like an etfs. Other than making bitcoin owner rich, what does bitcoin want, these days?