3 ms·

Wall Street is looking where everyone should - at the deaths. And deaths have been going down since mid-April. It's just that recently (about a month ago) we've

by m0zg 6y ago

Wall Street is looking where everyone should - at the deaths. And deaths have been going down since mid-April. It's just that recently (about a month ago) we've massively ramped up testing throughput. We're on track to become the most tested large country in the world in a few weeks. And the "lagging deaths" have so far failed to materialize.

brahweh 6y ago
Interesting - in the barrage of recent pessimism about the US's covid response, I was unaware of its high testing numbers. Nice to have a little good news. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison
- taurath 6y ago
  We're just seeing the death curve go up. If its not > 1000 a day in a week then the fatality rate is much much lower than expected
thephyber 6y ago
Death counts are important, but only part of the story. Hospitalizations are still extremely problematic because there is permanent health harm. There is also a massive cost to being in the hospital for an American. COVID hospitalizations seem to take between 1-3+ weeks, which costs more than the net worth of the average American. Also, the economic impact is severe and has yet to fully show itself. Lots of employees are still "employed" but indefinitely furloughed. They will show up as unemployed when their company finally falls into bankruptcy or takes decisive headcount steps. In September, the PPP strings for employment expire and there will be an employment rate cliff unless Congress acts. 20% of Americans are behind on their rent/mortgage and are worried about an eviction/foreclosure in the next 6 months. This is both bad for the obvious reason and because a consumer-driven economy shrinks quickly when consumers are more judicious about spending. We still don't understand why deaths per case are dropping yet. Until we know the variables (perhaps the weakest already died off, perhaps the colder weather amplified the worst symptoms, etc) I don't think it's safe to assume the death rate will be monotonically decreasing.
- taurath 6y ago
  The market is reacting to the fact that half of people in the country don't bother wearing masks in the grocery store anymore, and that disneyworld is open. The market thinks everything will turn out okay. My bet is we see deaths and disabilities skyrocket through the end of the year.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    > My bet is we see deaths and disabilities skyrocket through the end of the year That'd be a pretty bad bet as far as bets go. Look at the trends that are _not_ affected by increased testing.
    - taurath 6y ago
      Will know within a week. It’s absolutely true that more testing means more mild cases, but hospitalization rates are going up and up and up - also not at a catastrophic rate, yet.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
atemerev 6y ago
The deaths coming back up in the last 2 weeks, so far consistent with 1 month lag. If you are right and that’s what Wall Streets is looking up to, they are in for the big surprise in the next two weeks.

by m0zg 6y ago

brahweh 6y ago

Interesting - in the barrage of recent pessimism about the US's covid response, I was unaware of its high testing numbers. Nice to have a little good news. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison

taurath 6y ago
We're just seeing the death curve go up. If its not > 1000 a day in a week then the fatality rate is much much lower than expected

thephyber 6y ago

Death counts are important, but only part of the story. Hospitalizations are still extremely problematic because there is permanent health harm. There is also a massive cost to being in the hospital for an American. COVID hospitalizations seem to take between 1-3+ weeks, which costs more than the net worth of the average American. Also, the economic impact is severe and has yet to fully show itself. Lots of employees are still "employed" but indefinitely furloughed. They will show up as unemployed when their company finally falls into bankruptcy or takes decisive headcount steps. In September, the PPP strings for employment expire and there will be an employment rate cliff unless Congress acts. 20% of Americans are behind on their rent/mortgage and are worried about an eviction/foreclosure in the next 6 months. This is both bad for the obvious reason and because a consumer-driven economy shrinks quickly when consumers are more judicious about spending. We still don't understand why deaths per case are dropping yet. Until we know the variables (perhaps the weakest already died off, perhaps the colder weather amplified the worst symptoms, etc) I don't think it's safe to assume the death rate will be monotonically decreasing.

taurath 6y ago
The market is reacting to the fact that half of people in the country don't bother wearing masks in the grocery store anymore, and that disneyworld is open. The market thinks everything will turn out okay. My bet is we see deaths and disabilities skyrocket through the end of the year.
- m0zg 6y ago
  > My bet is we see deaths and disabilities skyrocket through the end of the year That'd be a pretty bad bet as far as bets go. Look at the trends that are _not_ affected by increased testing.
  - taurath 6y ago
    Will know within a week. It’s absolutely true that more testing means more mild cases, but hospitalization rates are going up and up and up - also not at a catastrophic rate, yet.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

atemerev 6y ago

The deaths coming back up in the last 2 weeks, so far consistent with 1 month lag. If you are right and that’s what Wall Streets is looking up to, they are in for the big surprise in the next two weeks.