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I think Tesla is extremely overvalued. I was long on them for years and cashed out at around $800 because I couldn't understand the valuation anymore. However

by slg 6y ago

I think Tesla is extremely overvalued. I was long on them for years and cashed out at around $800 because I couldn't understand the valuation anymore. However, it is a mistake to compare Tesla best case scenario against current car companies. They are also a energy company, a battery company, a logistics company, and a transportation company. For example, Uber isn't that far behind Volkswagen in terms of total valuation. If Tesla ever nails Autopilot, Tesla can immediately become Uber. Volkswagen doesn't have nearly as clear of a path to those extra revenue streams.

bmitc 6y ago
How are they an energy or logistics company? What products or services do they sell that fit those categories?
- orcasauce 6y ago
  https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/solarroof https://www.tesla.com/solarroof
  - slg 6y ago
    You forgot https://www.tesla.com/semi https://www.tesla.com/semi for logistics. Lots of these products and services are nowhere near maturity, but the stock market is the sum of all future revenue streams weighted for probability. There is a potential future in which many of us get our energy from Tesla solar panels, that energy is stored in Tesla battery, we use that to power our autonomous Tesla cars that we either own or call to us with a ridesharing app, all while Tesla owned and operated trucks cross the nation autonomously. I don't think that is a particularly likely outcome, but there is a way for Tesla to get there while there is a near zero chance Volkswagen has a similar future.
    - bmitc 6y ago
      That's still a vehicle isn't it? Are semi-truck makers considered logistics companies?
      - slg 6y ago
        The belief is that they will follow the same path for both ridesharing and trucking. If and when Autopilot is able to handle fully autonomous driving, Tesla will turn on that ability for owners to rent out their vehicle with Tesla taking a cut. Once that is successful, Tesla would then start to build its own internal fleet of autonomous vehicles to rent out and take all the revenue. This Tesla owned fleet would be the second stage because the vehicles themselves have a huge upfront costs. There is no point in incurring that upfront cost until the system has proven to be profitable among existing Tesla owners.
  - bmitc 6y ago
    Thanks. I didn't realize or had forgotten it was Tesla that sold the solar panels.
- tyree731 6y ago
  https://www.tesla.com/utilities https://www.tesla.com/utilities They've sold reasonable-sized power infrastructure to utilities in a few different places.
bryanlarsen 6y ago
I've been long Tesla since 2012. I agree, it's crazy overvalued. Every time that happens I sell about 1/3 of my holdings, which means I now have 15% of my original holdings. If I still had it all that would be a crazy pile of money, but on the other hand the bit that's remaining is just play money and I'm comfortable letting it ride and when get stressed when it inevitably drops again.

by slg 6y ago

bmitc 6y ago

How are they an energy or logistics company? What products or services do they sell that fit those categories?

orcasauce 6y ago
https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/solarroof https://www.tesla.com/solarroof
- slg 6y ago
  You forgot https://www.tesla.com/semi https://www.tesla.com/semi for logistics. Lots of these products and services are nowhere near maturity, but the stock market is the sum of all future revenue streams weighted for probability. There is a potential future in which many of us get our energy from Tesla solar panels, that energy is stored in Tesla battery, we use that to power our autonomous Tesla cars that we either own or call to us with a ridesharing app, all while Tesla owned and operated trucks cross the nation autonomously. I don't think that is a particularly likely outcome, but there is a way for Tesla to get there while there is a near zero chance Volkswagen has a similar future.
  - bmitc 6y ago
    That's still a vehicle isn't it? Are semi-truck makers considered logistics companies?
    - slg 6y ago
      The belief is that they will follow the same path for both ridesharing and trucking. If and when Autopilot is able to handle fully autonomous driving, Tesla will turn on that ability for owners to rent out their vehicle with Tesla taking a cut. Once that is successful, Tesla would then start to build its own internal fleet of autonomous vehicles to rent out and take all the revenue. This Tesla owned fleet would be the second stage because the vehicles themselves have a huge upfront costs. There is no point in incurring that upfront cost until the system has proven to be profitable among existing Tesla owners.
- bmitc 6y ago
  Thanks. I didn't realize or had forgotten it was Tesla that sold the solar panels.
tyree731 6y ago
https://www.tesla.com/utilities https://www.tesla.com/utilities They've sold reasonable-sized power infrastructure to utilities in a few different places.

bryanlarsen 6y ago

I've been long Tesla since 2012. I agree, it's crazy overvalued. Every time that happens I sell about 1/3 of my holdings, which means I now have 15% of my original holdings. If I still had it all that would be a crazy pile of money, but on the other hand the bit that's remaining is just play money and I'm comfortable letting it ride and when get stressed when it inevitably drops again.