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Without a doubt, the coming wave of evictions and foreclosures is going to pop the bubble. Once the tent cities (maybe we should call them "Trump hotels") start

Without a doubt, the coming wave of evictions and foreclosures is going to pop the bubble. Once the tent cities (maybe we should call them "Trump hotels") start springing up in every metro area around the US, I think the market will finally lose this steam. The US is headed for a dire economic situation. At that point, the only thing that can save us is an effective vaccine that confers long lasting immunity. Anything less means total economic annihilation.

Balgair 6y ago
> ... start springing up ... What do you mean 'start'? The homeless camp right next to the new Apple spaceship just got a bathroom installed: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/03/after-months-of-complaints-cupertino-homeless-camp-gets-a-bathroom/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/03/after-months-of-compl... This stuff has been going on for a few years now.
- woeirua 6y ago
  I mean, large scale tent encampments. Right now, you have relatively small encampments in some metro areas. I expect to see tens of thousands of people living in tent cities in every major metro area by October.
  - thrownaway996 6y ago
    Why? Eviction processes in most cities take months, and if the 2008 crisis is any indication, even _then_ they'll be slow to leave. Just logistically, how do you physically evict tens of thousands of people in every major metro area in that short a period of time? I'm not downplaying the seriousness of what's happening, as the economic impact will be catastrophic. But physically evicting large percentages of a population with no sudden increase in demand for those properties, seems like an unlikely outcome.
    - woeirua 6y ago
      Lawful evictions take time, yes, but as the system becomes overwhelmed desperate landlords are going to take matters into their own hands. Cops, strained by lots of other problems just wont have the time or resources to respond to all the calls of people who had the locks changed on them illegally.
      - thrownaway996 6y ago
        Sure, but who is renting the property after that? In your scenario, the answer is, noone, which significantly incentivizes at least _some_ of the landlords to negotiate with tenants, instead of mass eviction. Some income is better in the short-run than no-income, particularly for small property owners.
        michaelmrose 6y ago
        They might well turn to speculators willing to buy out the property even at less than current price. If you own a 250k property and haven't been paid the rent you expect for months 50%-75% on the dollar so you can pay your own expenses might look attractive.
    - michaelmrose 6y ago
      Interesting question. In theory everyone could drag it into court but most states don't provide much protection from being evicted if you can't pay your rent so such moves are merely delaying actions. The property owning class loves to share horror stories about tenants that took months to get out but renters have remarkably few protections in reality due to an imbalance of money. Homeowners will probably find a way to catch up before losing their rear but renters could trivially find themselves in very quick perfunctory hearings where they are quickly told to put up or get out. Many with relatives with a spare couch or even a spare floor to sleep on might see the writing on the wall and get out before they are humiliated by being put out. If most evictions are carried out without a trial or hearing of any variety simply with a note on the door the courts will be able to keep up with the few that contest.
  - medium_burrito 6y ago
    We're definitely there already. At least on the west coast, in each major city, we have thousands of people living in tents, if not tens of thousands. Seattle has over 10k now officially (and speaking with food bank workers 20 years ago, they said it was that number then, when times were less shit). Los Angeles per their recent count has over 40k. https://www.lahsa.org/news?article=726-2020-greater-los-angeles-homeless-count-results&ref=hc https://www.lahsa.org/news?article=726-2020-greater-los-ange...

Balgair 6y ago

> ... start springing up ... What do you mean 'start'? The homeless camp right next to the new Apple spaceship just got a bathroom installed: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/03/after-months-of-complaints-cupertino-homeless-camp-gets-a-bathroom/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/03/after-months-of-compl... This stuff has been going on for a few years now.

woeirua 6y ago
I mean, large scale tent encampments. Right now, you have relatively small encampments in some metro areas. I expect to see tens of thousands of people living in tent cities in every major metro area by October.
- thrownaway996 6y ago
  Why? Eviction processes in most cities take months, and if the 2008 crisis is any indication, even _then_ they'll be slow to leave. Just logistically, how do you physically evict tens of thousands of people in every major metro area in that short a period of time? I'm not downplaying the seriousness of what's happening, as the economic impact will be catastrophic. But physically evicting large percentages of a population with no sudden increase in demand for those properties, seems like an unlikely outcome.
  - woeirua 6y ago
    Lawful evictions take time, yes, but as the system becomes overwhelmed desperate landlords are going to take matters into their own hands. Cops, strained by lots of other problems just wont have the time or resources to respond to all the calls of people who had the locks changed on them illegally.
    - thrownaway996 6y ago
      Sure, but who is renting the property after that? In your scenario, the answer is, noone, which significantly incentivizes at least _some_ of the landlords to negotiate with tenants, instead of mass eviction. Some income is better in the short-run than no-income, particularly for small property owners.
      - michaelmrose 6y ago
        They might well turn to speculators willing to buy out the property even at less than current price. If you own a 250k property and haven't been paid the rent you expect for months 50%-75% on the dollar so you can pay your own expenses might look attractive.
  - michaelmrose 6y ago
    Interesting question. In theory everyone could drag it into court but most states don't provide much protection from being evicted if you can't pay your rent so such moves are merely delaying actions. The property owning class loves to share horror stories about tenants that took months to get out but renters have remarkably few protections in reality due to an imbalance of money. Homeowners will probably find a way to catch up before losing their rear but renters could trivially find themselves in very quick perfunctory hearings where they are quickly told to put up or get out. Many with relatives with a spare couch or even a spare floor to sleep on might see the writing on the wall and get out before they are humiliated by being put out. If most evictions are carried out without a trial or hearing of any variety simply with a note on the door the courts will be able to keep up with the few that contest.
- medium_burrito 6y ago
  We're definitely there already. At least on the west coast, in each major city, we have thousands of people living in tents, if not tens of thousands. Seattle has over 10k now officially (and speaking with food bank workers 20 years ago, they said it was that number then, when times were less shit). Los Angeles per their recent count has over 40k. https://www.lahsa.org/news?article=726-2020-greater-los-angeles-homeless-count-results&ref=hc https://www.lahsa.org/news?article=726-2020-greater-los-ange...