4 ms·

Forgive me if I say this sounds awfully like the "new paradigm" / "this time it's different!" phase of a bubble.

by danhak 6y ago

toomuchtodo 6y ago
But it is different this time. Productivity growth is slowing [1], people are aging rapidly (in the US, baby boomers are retiring at a pace of 10,000 people per day, 5,000 of them die per day) [2], and secular stagnation is taking hold in most first world countries [3]. Sort of strange to expect today or the next 50 years to look like the last 50 years. [1] https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/ernestliu/files/lms20190111.pdf https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/ernestliu/... [2] https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2019/04/19/factors-behind-the-decline-in-the-u-s-natural-rate-of-interest https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops... [3] https://web.archive.org/web/20200629061702/https://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/ https://web.archive.org/web/20200629061702/https://larrysumm...
- marktangotango 6y ago
  Yeesh, sounds like Japan in the 90's!
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Japan is a time machine, showing us the future of all developed countries as their population ages. No country is immune once their total fertility rate drops below replacement rate for a sustained period of time.
javert 6y ago
Your comment is the equivalent of a defendant in a criminal trial saying, "I'm not guilty," and then prosecutor saying, "Forgive me, but this sounds awfully like what the last guy said, and he murdered his wife!" In other words, we have to actually look at the evidence.
svachalek 6y ago
Dalio's point is specifically "this time looks just like all the others" but unfortunately his "this time" is referring to something much bigger and scarier than yours. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-year...

Forgive me if I say this sounds awfully like the "new paradigm" / "this time it's different!" phase of a bubble.

by danhak 6y ago

Forgive me if I say this sounds awfully like the "new paradigm" / "this time it's different!" phase of a bubble.

But it is different this time. Productivity growth is slowing [1], people are aging rapidly (in the US, baby boomers are retiring at a pace of 10,000 people per day, 5,000 of them die per day) [2], and secular stagnation is taking hold in most first world countries [3]. Sort of strange to expect today or the next 50 years to look like the last 50 years. [1] https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/ernestliu/files/lms20190111.pdf https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/ernestliu/... [2] https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2019/04/19/factors-behind-the-decline-in-the-u-s-natural-rate-of-interest https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops... [3] https://web.archive.org/web/20200629061702/https://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/ https://web.archive.org/web/20200629061702/https://larrysumm...

marktangotango 6y ago
Yeesh, sounds like Japan in the 90's!
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Japan is a time machine, showing us the future of all developed countries as their population ages. No country is immune once their total fertility rate drops below replacement rate for a sustained period of time.

javert 6y ago

Your comment is the equivalent of a defendant in a criminal trial saying, "I'm not guilty," and then prosecutor saying, "Forgive me, but this sounds awfully like what the last guy said, and he murdered his wife!" In other words, we have to actually look at the evidence.

svachalek 6y ago

Dalio's point is specifically "this time looks just like all the others" but unfortunately his "this time" is referring to something much bigger and scarier than yours. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-year...