4 ms·

This is the most sane thing anyone can say. At some point there is going to be a critical mass of people not paying their mortgage, not paying rent, not paying

This is the most sane thing anyone can say. At some point there is going to be a critical mass of people not paying their mortgage, not paying rent, not paying loans, not paying credit cards...and simply no money and unemployment. I think this week we will begin to see some acknowledgement of the realities because July 15 is the new tax return date, and I think there will be millions and millions of American's who just say F it, I am not filing/paying taxes. Then again it also wouldn't surprise me if 10s of millions end up homeless before the end of the year while politicians keep parading around unemployment numbers and the stock market record highs, while these people get swept under the rug and never actually acknowledged.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
$600 federal unemployment top up ends July 31st. PPP and other paycheck guarantee program layoff moratoriums end at the end of September. I expect carnage in October. United Airlines has already stated they are targeting ~36k job cuts in October when they're permitted to [1] [2], I presume other airlines and businesses will follow. [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/07/08/united-airlines-layoff-up-36-000-employees-october-coronavorus-fallout/5396857002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/07/0... [2] https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/layoffs-expected-when-pay-support-ends-for-us-carriers/138946.article https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/layoffs-expected-when-...
- thephyber 6y ago
  Short of a massive coordinated effort to shut down COVID spread and a herculean effort by Congress, I agree with your assessment. About 20% of renters and homeowners in the USA are worried about evictions/foreclosures in the next 6 months[1] and that number only goes down if the economy makes massive improvements or if Congress stops playing brinksmanship. [1] https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments
- coolspot 6y ago
  I would bet they all will be renewed at least till the election.
mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE 6y ago
What prevents government from paying their bills, rent and loans forever? Warren Buffett said that US gov can never go bankrupt because it owns the printing press.
- owenmarshall 6y ago
  The USD is the reserve currency of the world. The US maintains this status quo through a combination of soft and hard power: stir the pot a little and ambassadors tut-tut. Stir a bit more and your politicians have their US bank accounts frozen. Stir too hard and the USS Gerald R. Ford sails up off your coast and asks you to reconsider democracy. I'd be surprised if this status quo is challenged by another country for years. What I think is far more interesting is what happens internally: the US is a powder keg of economic and racial inequality and our leaders are either throwing lit matches at it or gently disapproving of those doing the throwing. If COVID cases and deaths keep increasing I can't see how we continue without structural changes.
  - mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE 6y ago
    Doesn't work against China and Russia ... doesn't really work even against Venezuela.
    - owenmarshall 6y ago
      Oh, don't get me wrong: long term the petroeuro is coming – unless it gets upstaged by the petroyuan. With luck it doesn't come with too many bodies.
- thephyber 6y ago
  > Warren Buffett said that US gov can never go bankrupt because it owns the printing press. Hyperinflation is one way to throw more fuel on the dire that is American society right now. And Trump said the quiet part out loud during his campaign[1] that we don't have to repay the whole debt (normally something that the most powerful people in a country don't say in public). Neither of these ideas works in practice without significant tradeoffs. The US dollar only keeps its value because people around the world have faith it is worth something. A spike in inflation or a debt default would have investors scramble to move their assets elsewhere. [1] https://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477350889/donald-trumps-messy-ideas-for-handling-the-national-debt-explained https://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477350889/donald-trumps-messy...

toomuchtodo 6y ago

$600 federal unemployment top up ends July 31st. PPP and other paycheck guarantee program layoff moratoriums end at the end of September. I expect carnage in October. United Airlines has already stated they are targeting ~36k job cuts in October when they're permitted to [1] [2], I presume other airlines and businesses will follow. [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/07/08/united-airlines-layoff-up-36-000-employees-october-coronavorus-fallout/5396857002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/07/0... [2] https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/layoffs-expected-when-pay-support-ends-for-us-carriers/138946.article https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/layoffs-expected-when-...

thephyber 6y ago
Short of a massive coordinated effort to shut down COVID spread and a herculean effort by Congress, I agree with your assessment. About 20% of renters and homeowners in the USA are worried about evictions/foreclosures in the next 6 months[1] and that number only goes down if the economy makes massive improvements or if Congress stops playing brinksmanship. [1] https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments
coolspot 6y ago
I would bet they all will be renewed at least till the election.

mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE 6y ago

What prevents government from paying their bills, rent and loans forever? Warren Buffett said that US gov can never go bankrupt because it owns the printing press.

owenmarshall 6y ago
The USD is the reserve currency of the world. The US maintains this status quo through a combination of soft and hard power: stir the pot a little and ambassadors tut-tut. Stir a bit more and your politicians have their US bank accounts frozen. Stir too hard and the USS Gerald R. Ford sails up off your coast and asks you to reconsider democracy. I'd be surprised if this status quo is challenged by another country for years. What I think is far more interesting is what happens internally: the US is a powder keg of economic and racial inequality and our leaders are either throwing lit matches at it or gently disapproving of those doing the throwing. If COVID cases and deaths keep increasing I can't see how we continue without structural changes.
- mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE 6y ago
  Doesn't work against China and Russia ... doesn't really work even against Venezuela.
  - owenmarshall 6y ago
    Oh, don't get me wrong: long term the petroeuro is coming – unless it gets upstaged by the petroyuan. With luck it doesn't come with too many bodies.
thephyber 6y ago
> Warren Buffett said that US gov can never go bankrupt because it owns the printing press. Hyperinflation is one way to throw more fuel on the dire that is American society right now. And Trump said the quiet part out loud during his campaign[1] that we don't have to repay the whole debt (normally something that the most powerful people in a country don't say in public). Neither of these ideas works in practice without significant tradeoffs. The US dollar only keeps its value because people around the world have faith it is worth something. A spike in inflation or a debt default would have investors scramble to move their assets elsewhere. [1] https://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477350889/donald-trumps-messy-ideas-for-handling-the-national-debt-explained https://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477350889/donald-trumps-messy...