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Talk is talk, but question is why murder Indian soldiers? Why bother destroying the golden goose Honkong? Add to that silly power games to try and intimidate A

by tlear 6y ago

Talk is talk, but question is why murder Indian soldiers? Why bother destroying the golden goose Honkong? Add to that silly power games to try and intimidate Australia(and failing) PRC strategy is very far from smart here. Perhaps it is supreme arrogance? Arrogance like that historically have led to a lot of people getting killed.

Barrin92 6y ago
Hong Kong isn't a golden goose any more. Hong Kong went from representing about a fifth of the Chinese economy to about 2% today. The Shanghai stock exchange today is larger than the one in Hong Kong, and the perception in China has shifted from seeing it as an important economic region to a political nuissance as the role of foreign capital diminishes. It's not seen as a dynamic region any more and the tech talent goes to Shenzhen or the Greater Bay Area and to mainland universities while HK suffers from stagnation, so basically they've decided that now is the time to incorporate it before the situation becomes politically untenable. The situation with India is more complicated and there's actually no consensus inside the party. The arguments for the more assertive stance are mainly that there's right now a huge asymmetry between China and India, simply put India doesn't stand a chance in an actual conflict. The hawkish factions inside the party argue that conflict is inevitable so now is the time to clarify matters as long as China has a tactical advantage. The jury's actually out on whether that's a smart move or not. From the perspective of the Chinese there's certainly a case to be made for it as the US is in political disarray under incompetent leadership.
- navinsylvester 6y ago
  Why would China try these postures when the opposite country is neck deep in handling a pandemic and one which originated from its land. Is this any time for a bloody battle or power trips?. May be there is more to it than the reasoning you mentioned. Internal frictions are starting to get visible against premier due to the way he handled the covid and how much repair it has caused China globally. May be he is trying to do all this antics to shore up nationalism and create a new problem/diversion which makes covid related ones to take a back seat. > India doesn't stand a chance in an actual conflict If its a full blown war then may be yes. But two nuclear powers going all out and all alone will not happen so others will step in. It would complicate things for China. Ideally it should be conventional and a very short one. The rules for engagement can't be escalated, that means China has to work with severe geographic disadvantages.
- tlear 6y ago
  HK was a bridge where you could setup things that operated under normal law more or less. That bridge is gone and any confidence in long term rule of law has evaporated. That was its main contribution, it is not like some insurgents setup shop in HK it was basically a non-issue till PRC made it into one. India vs PRC balance is not as one sided as one might think. India has nukes just like China. On the ground PRC has advantage and probably in the air as well. But guess where all the Chinese trade routes pass by? In hot war the decisive theater would be Indian Ocean and balance of power there is very far from foregone conclusion, it would take just some US intel “leaking” for Indian Navy to shut down all PRC trade. US is mostly non-issue, unless PRC does something idiotic like invade Senkakus or Taiwan. US will do nothing directly. Biggest move US has done was last year when they helped push a deal to build indigenous modern submarines in Taiwan with Mitsubishi Heavy industries help. Prototype presented suspiciously looks like Soryu, which is any PRC naval planner worst nightmare. And very suspicious number of MHI “retired” engineers have moved to Taiwan. Next step after is couple of the under construction Soryu being sold. That would be like a scalpel next to PRC trade throat. Taiwan been trying to get that capability for decades, US could not help as it does not build electric subs and PRC could pressure others not to sell, well they pissed Japan enough this time(those games around Senkakus and with rare earths maybe was a bad idea eh?)
selimthegrim 6y ago
HK’s biggest tech darling at the moment is deeply implicated in the Chinese surveillance state. Irony of ironies.

by tlear 6y ago

Barrin92 6y ago

Hong Kong isn't a golden goose any more. Hong Kong went from representing about a fifth of the Chinese economy to about 2% today. The Shanghai stock exchange today is larger than the one in Hong Kong, and the perception in China has shifted from seeing it as an important economic region to a political nuissance as the role of foreign capital diminishes. It's not seen as a dynamic region any more and the tech talent goes to Shenzhen or the Greater Bay Area and to mainland universities while HK suffers from stagnation, so basically they've decided that now is the time to incorporate it before the situation becomes politically untenable. The situation with India is more complicated and there's actually no consensus inside the party. The arguments for the more assertive stance are mainly that there's right now a huge asymmetry between China and India, simply put India doesn't stand a chance in an actual conflict. The hawkish factions inside the party argue that conflict is inevitable so now is the time to clarify matters as long as China has a tactical advantage. The jury's actually out on whether that's a smart move or not. From the perspective of the Chinese there's certainly a case to be made for it as the US is in political disarray under incompetent leadership.

navinsylvester 6y ago
Why would China try these postures when the opposite country is neck deep in handling a pandemic and one which originated from its land. Is this any time for a bloody battle or power trips?. May be there is more to it than the reasoning you mentioned. Internal frictions are starting to get visible against premier due to the way he handled the covid and how much repair it has caused China globally. May be he is trying to do all this antics to shore up nationalism and create a new problem/diversion which makes covid related ones to take a back seat. > India doesn't stand a chance in an actual conflict If its a full blown war then may be yes. But two nuclear powers going all out and all alone will not happen so others will step in. It would complicate things for China. Ideally it should be conventional and a very short one. The rules for engagement can't be escalated, that means China has to work with severe geographic disadvantages.
tlear 6y ago
HK was a bridge where you could setup things that operated under normal law more or less. That bridge is gone and any confidence in long term rule of law has evaporated. That was its main contribution, it is not like some insurgents setup shop in HK it was basically a non-issue till PRC made it into one. India vs PRC balance is not as one sided as one might think. India has nukes just like China. On the ground PRC has advantage and probably in the air as well. But guess where all the Chinese trade routes pass by? In hot war the decisive theater would be Indian Ocean and balance of power there is very far from foregone conclusion, it would take just some US intel “leaking” for Indian Navy to shut down all PRC trade. US is mostly non-issue, unless PRC does something idiotic like invade Senkakus or Taiwan. US will do nothing directly. Biggest move US has done was last year when they helped push a deal to build indigenous modern submarines in Taiwan with Mitsubishi Heavy industries help. Prototype presented suspiciously looks like Soryu, which is any PRC naval planner worst nightmare. And very suspicious number of MHI “retired” engineers have moved to Taiwan. Next step after is couple of the under construction Soryu being sold. That would be like a scalpel next to PRC trade throat. Taiwan been trying to get that capability for decades, US could not help as it does not build electric subs and PRC could pressure others not to sell, well they pissed Japan enough this time(those games around Senkakus and with rare earths maybe was a bad idea eh?)

selimthegrim 6y ago

HK’s biggest tech darling at the moment is deeply implicated in the Chinese surveillance state. Irony of ironies.