> The CDC reports something strange, but if you multiply it out, they’re estimating 0.3% in the US. This is being repeated a lot. I think people have misunder

> The CDC reports something strange, but if you multiply it out, they’re estimating 0.3% in the US. This is being repeated a lot. I think people have misunderstood what CDC are saying. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... > CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool. They have five scenarios. These cover a range of cases. The CDC says this about the parameters in the scenarios: > The parameters in the scenarios: > Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning. > Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19. > Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions. They say this about the scenario that people are quoting: > Scenario 5 represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.