4 ms·

Read the article. Having a positive test and being infected, infectious and sick are not the same. Disappeared is a strong word, some people get a respiratory

Read the article. Having a positive test and being infected, infectious and sick are not the same. Disappeared is a strong word, some people get a respiratory tract infection even in summer, but it is relatively rare. Speaking of Arizona, the cases have increased tenfold, but the deaths have merely doubled, even accounting for lag. The core argument is about immunity however. There must have been some degree of immunity before and there is likely a significant degree of immunity in those populations where the virus has spread, like those European countries that have been open for weeks with no big surge in cases.

scotty79 6y ago
> Disappeared is a strong word, some people get a respiratory tract infection even in summer, but it is relatively rare. Apparently availability of novel vulnerable populations trump any troubles that virus might have spreading due to warm weather.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  I think the data shows that this coronavirus is causing drastically less illness in the past warmer months, as opposed to the months prior. This is consistent with SARS-1, other coronaviruses, as well as Influenza. That's a different matter to the number of positive test results, which is indeed rising, but is not measuring actual illness.
  - scotty79 6y ago
    I don't think you can make that claim globally. Looking at India or USA
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      I think you can make the case in the US, some states like AZ or FL have cases up 10x but deaths are up only 2x, even accounting for a 2 week lag. As for India, the climate doesn't readily compare to our conception of summer/winter, and if the virus only started to pick up spread recently, we have no earlier baseline to compare to. Like I said, "disappear" is too string of a word, but the correlation is definitely there, just like with many other viruses.
      - liamwestray 6y ago
        The difference in deaths is from less at-risk populations getting it. It was projected to have a .1% to .3% mortality rate. It had 3-5% when it spread through older populations.

scotty79 6y ago

> Disappeared is a strong word, some people get a respiratory tract infection even in summer, but it is relatively rare. Apparently availability of novel vulnerable populations trump any troubles that virus might have spreading due to warm weather.

gridlockd 6y ago
I think the data shows that this coronavirus is causing drastically less illness in the past warmer months, as opposed to the months prior. This is consistent with SARS-1, other coronaviruses, as well as Influenza. That's a different matter to the number of positive test results, which is indeed rising, but is not measuring actual illness.
- scotty79 6y ago
  I don't think you can make that claim globally. Looking at India or USA
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    I think you can make the case in the US, some states like AZ or FL have cases up 10x but deaths are up only 2x, even accounting for a 2 week lag. As for India, the climate doesn't readily compare to our conception of summer/winter, and if the virus only started to pick up spread recently, we have no earlier baseline to compare to. Like I said, "disappear" is too string of a word, but the correlation is definitely there, just like with many other viruses.
    - liamwestray 6y ago
      The difference in deaths is from less at-risk populations getting it. It was projected to have a .1% to .3% mortality rate. It had 3-5% when it spread through older populations.