6 ms·

We need to realize we know very little and mother nature is the authority. Many of us, myself included, find it hard to come to terms with basic ignorance. We

We need to realize we know very little and mother nature is the authority. Many of us, myself included, find it hard to come to terms with basic ignorance. We are very ignorant about CoV19 right now. It will take a long time to get smart, have the understanding needed to live as we used to. You don't even know you had it, or which strain. Think a little please. This is about US, not just you, or me, or "those other people." Failure to grok that has severe consequences. Revisit these thoughts near end of year. Seriously. There is real ugly ahead. Immunity is proving to be a thing that does not endure. We are also finding second and third infections play out differently. This virus won't just go away. And we are a long way from potent treatments. Sadly, I had it too. Was a very rough month. I must be honest: scared the shit out of me. My whole fam struggled through. I came just a shade from being in the hospital too. Worse? I am currently priced out of health care insurance. Literally everything is on the line and I am very far from alone in the US, which is going to become a very tough place to live in just a few short months. Nobody gets to live life the way they want because everyone is impacted. All humans are exposed, all humans are under threat, at risk, until all humans have access to remedies. Should you get it again, say 3 to 5 months from now when whatever immune response you have going on right now fades away, your symptoms run a good chance of being much, much worse. How we lived is over for a good long while. And because the risks endure, escalate easily, and are serious, we are very likely to see the majority of humans enforce living differently for the common good. I am one of them. New day. I hate it. And I am sorry. We, as a species, could have, should have, bit flat out just didn't. Now this thing is in the world and for now we cope and learn. One day we can live again, and ideally learn a tough, expensive lesson. I sure hope so, because this all sucks hard.

volker48 6y ago
> Should you get it again, say 3 to 5 months from now when whatever immune response you have going on right now fades away, your symptoms run a good chance of being much, much worse. Why would it be worse if one gets it again?
- tripletao 6y ago
  First, there's no reason to expect that your immune response will fade in 3-5 months. The concentration of antibodies in the blood does decrease with time, but immunity to the original SARS lasted at least for years[1]. For a virus that was only discovered X months ago, it's impossible to demonstrate that immunity lasts longer than X months; but it seems pretty likely to me. Second, there's no firm evidence that anyone has ever been reinfected yet[2], but there's no specific reason to believe that your symptoms would be worse the second time. Antibody-dependent enhancement was observed with some vaccine candidates for the original SARS[3], but so far the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates haven't shown that. In the other direction, I've seen speculation that some modern common colds are the faint echoes of ancient pandemics, and SARS-CoV-2 would eventually end up similar if uncontrolled, with immunity acquired initially in childhood (where the IFR is not zero but extremely small, 16 per million[4]) and reinforced with mild infections throughout one's life. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ 2. The evidence for reinfection is that some people have tested positive then negative then positive by PCR, and perhaps their symptoms got worse then better then worse again too; but since the PCR test has a significant false negative rate, it might just be one long illness. 3. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0577-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0577-1 4. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
  - ddingus 6y ago
    There is no reason to assume it will endure either. What we need to do is be conservative and gather data and work to understand better. Right now, our understanding is limited. We do not yet have a full cycle behind us. That's one year minimum. Until we have a more solid basis, the risks are minimized for everyone by operating in a risk adverse way. We are in a global scenario, rapidly moving to endemic mode. Far too many are not reasonable and prudent and we all will pay for that.
  - ddingus 6y ago
    Let me put it this way: We want things to be true and universal. People vary widely in their response to this virus. We do not understand why very well. A lot remains unclear. Too much. This mode we are in could be the default for a sustained time. As we go through the year, I see that as being increasingly likely. As people face reality as it is being shown to us, I expect large numbers of them to get on with living differently as we work on cures and hopefully vaccine. Until we actualize those things, caution is totally warranted and indicated. Most of the world gets that. The US doesn't yet. There are reasons why our passports aren't much good right now. Our discussion here is one of them. All you put here is suggestive and hopeful. Let's hope. In the meantime, we don't know as much as we should and caution is again, totally warranted and indicated.

volker48 6y ago

> Should you get it again, say 3 to 5 months from now when whatever immune response you have going on right now fades away, your symptoms run a good chance of being much, much worse. Why would it be worse if one gets it again?

tripletao 6y ago
First, there's no reason to expect that your immune response will fade in 3-5 months. The concentration of antibodies in the blood does decrease with time, but immunity to the original SARS lasted at least for years[1]. For a virus that was only discovered X months ago, it's impossible to demonstrate that immunity lasts longer than X months; but it seems pretty likely to me. Second, there's no firm evidence that anyone has ever been reinfected yet[2], but there's no specific reason to believe that your symptoms would be worse the second time. Antibody-dependent enhancement was observed with some vaccine candidates for the original SARS[3], but so far the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates haven't shown that. In the other direction, I've seen speculation that some modern common colds are the faint echoes of ancient pandemics, and SARS-CoV-2 would eventually end up similar if uncontrolled, with immunity acquired initially in childhood (where the IFR is not zero but extremely small, 16 per million[4]) and reinforced with mild infections throughout one's life. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ 2. The evidence for reinfection is that some people have tested positive then negative then positive by PCR, and perhaps their symptoms got worse then better then worse again too; but since the PCR test has a significant false negative rate, it might just be one long illness. 3. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0577-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0577-1 4. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- ddingus 6y ago
  There is no reason to assume it will endure either. What we need to do is be conservative and gather data and work to understand better. Right now, our understanding is limited. We do not yet have a full cycle behind us. That's one year minimum. Until we have a more solid basis, the risks are minimized for everyone by operating in a risk adverse way. We are in a global scenario, rapidly moving to endemic mode. Far too many are not reasonable and prudent and we all will pay for that.
- ddingus 6y ago
  Let me put it this way: We want things to be true and universal. People vary widely in their response to this virus. We do not understand why very well. A lot remains unclear. Too much. This mode we are in could be the default for a sustained time. As we go through the year, I see that as being increasingly likely. As people face reality as it is being shown to us, I expect large numbers of them to get on with living differently as we work on cures and hopefully vaccine. Until we actualize those things, caution is totally warranted and indicated. Most of the world gets that. The US doesn't yet. There are reasons why our passports aren't much good right now. Our discussion here is one of them. All you put here is suggestive and hopeful. Let's hope. In the meantime, we don't know as much as we should and caution is again, totally warranted and indicated.