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That's more to do with the unviability of VR than Oculus itself. If (rather, when) VR becomes viable, Oculus will be front and center - it has cornered mindshar
by puranjay 6y ago
That's more to do with the unviability of VR than Oculus itself. If (rather, when) VR becomes viable, Oculus will be front and center - it has cornered mindshare in the space
- scarface74 6y agoPeople have been saying that VR was right around the corner since the Virtual Boy in the mid 90s. The console market itself is tiny in the grand scheme of things. The PS4 has only sold 102 million units since inception. The VR market won’t even be that big. In contrast, Apple alone sells that many phones over two quarters
- puranjay 6y agoI'm not particularly bearish on VR but it's clear that the technology is far, far more mature than anything in the 90s. Hardware sales are anyhow not quite as important as the software that runs on the hardware. The console market might be small, but the gaming market is absolutely massive. Facebook doesn't have to make money off Oculus hardware of it can, like Sony and Microsoft, get people into the ecosystem where $60 games are the norm and microstransactions total billions in revenue.
- scarface74 6y agoHow many billions did the Microsoft lose before the division became profitable? I believe the breakdown is that Microsoft makes $7 on each third party physical game and $27 on each first party game. I doubt that Sony and Microsoft makes as much on their consoles as Apple makes selling headphones.
- puranjay 6y agoWell, Facebook has cash to lose. Further, VR, at least as Facebook and Zuckerberg see it, would be less about games and more about social interactions in virtual worlds. The monetization model would be different than directly selling software I reckon (most likely ads - to a hammer, everything looks like a nail). This would then be an engagement play - something Facebook already excels at. Doesn't sound particularly feasible at the moment honestly. But you never know. I'm not writing it off at least - the people who do like VR think it's the greatest thing ever created.
- scarface74 6y agoThat’s like the perennial “year of Linux on the desktop”.
- ghaff 6y agoSo VR Second Life. I was largely bought into the Second Life hype briefly. I certainly lived through all the brands setting up camp in Second Life. But I'm skeptical VR was the missing ingredient. Most people don't want immersion most of the time. e.g. people hyping up VR for collaboration. I'm actually fine with video calls at least some of the time. But you're not getting me to wear a VR headset hours a day. Not happening.
- baby 6y agohow is Oculus Quest not viable? Have you tried it? It's pretty next level.
- scarface74 6y ago“Viable” isn’t about how good it is technologically. It’s about people being willing to buy it in a large enough quantity that it will be profitable.