5 ms·

Covid is likely going to end up killing more americans in the first couple years than polio did in the decade of its peak (granted - a different demographic tha

Covid is likely going to end up killing more americans in the first couple years than polio did in the decade of its peak (granted - a different demographic that means total years of life lost is likely less). There's also the general environment of in the early and kid 20th century, the idea that there are widespread deadly infectious diseases with no known treatment or prevention was just common. We're far less willing to accept a reality like that now after decades of success taming infectious disease. It's thanks to the advances made to fight the prior pandemics we faced that COVID seems not so bad/winnable. The conversation would be different if we didnt have an inkling of hope on the horizon, but we already have two drugs that seem to have limited efficacy, we see how well social distancing works, and are likely to have a vaccine within a few years. The fear and all is as much a function of where society is as what the disease is.

klenwell 6y ago
I agree it's important not to underestimate Covid. It's occurred to me that one of the things that makes it so insidious and effective is that it is easy to confuse with more benign common illnesses like flu or cold. If it had the obvious crippling effect of polio or the more grotesque symptoms of Ebola or the kind of disease Camus describes in the plague, I suspect people would be less cavalier about it, which could have changed behavior and limited its spread here in America. Regarding Candy Land, I always loved the board art. Especially the original one pictured in the article and the version I played in 70/80's. If I wander by Candy Land in a store, I'll always pause to check out the art. I didn't like the later versions I saw. Too busy and saccharine.
- ljf 6y ago
  I understand that gradually the thinking is moving to it being more of a whole body issue than just a lung issue - and the NICE guidelines have just been updated I to refer to the longer term impacts - though so far they don't seem the same as polio, or as common. https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200712/First-extensive-review-of-COVID-19s-effects-on-all-affected-organs-outside-the-lungs.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200712/First-extensi... My wife had covid, and now nearly 4 months later is still ill. 3 people recently on her online group have been able to get EKGs (not ecg) and all have shown scarring of the heart. What this means for them remains to be seen, as does if this is at all common - this could be chance or we could see more people with longer term issues coming out of this. Gut feel, I'd guess that we might see as many serious long term effects as we see deaths - but there is a long way to go before we can prove or disprove that - I really hope I am wrong.
  - klenwell 6y ago
    > Gut feel, I'd guess that we might see as many serious long term effects as we see deaths - but there is a long way to go before we can prove or disprove that - I really hope I am wrong. I hope you are wrong, too. But this is another one of the insidious aspects of this disease that I've read about myself. I'm sorry to hear your wife is still ill. I wish her a full recovery.
catalogia 6y ago
Polio crippled a ton of people that survived it. FDR, as well as one of my great-grandfathers, was in a wheelchair because of it. (I know some people have speculated that covid may have a lasting impact too, but nothing I've read suggests it's anything like what polio was. Post-polio syndrome effected somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-50% of polio survivors in the old data, 80+% in more modern data.)
- vmception 6y ago
  on the topic of COVID aftereffects, we just don't know. maybe it becomes a condition that promotes encephalitis more easily, as an hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only, making people catatonic for decades. that particular epidemic turned 5 million people into those in-stasis zombies, and just put into wards for the rest of the century as no permanent solution was ever found. the actual epidemic occurred during WWI and was paled in relevance by the 1918 influenza. But without that influenza it would have been the bigger issue on its own.
  - catalogia 6y ago
    The problem with fear of the unknown is the set of the unknown is infinite. Maybe you are patient zero of a brand new super-influenza that's going to wipe out 90% of humanity. Is that hypothetical less likely to occur than some 'unforeseen consequences of covid' scenario? There are hundreds of viruses known to cause disease in humans and probably many times more that infect humans without currently causing disease. The potential for "we don't know, but what if..." scenarios is boundless.
    - vmception 6y ago
      the difference between you and I is that I am willing to entertain boundless theories in a highly iterative process of hypothesis, if there is some observation to support the hypothesis. the supporting work for any cognitive issue would be the known neural degenerative aspect of a COVID infection as well as the blood oxygen transportation deficiencies of a COVID infection. Its just enough to say "look over there" to focus efforts on repeatable studies for eventual peer review, because people might not be looking over there yet. Its just enough to not be surprised if a brain that isn't getting the same amount of oxygen and also part of an infected nervous system suddenly stops working in the expected way.

klenwell 6y ago

I agree it's important not to underestimate Covid. It's occurred to me that one of the things that makes it so insidious and effective is that it is easy to confuse with more benign common illnesses like flu or cold. If it had the obvious crippling effect of polio or the more grotesque symptoms of Ebola or the kind of disease Camus describes in the plague, I suspect people would be less cavalier about it, which could have changed behavior and limited its spread here in America. Regarding Candy Land, I always loved the board art. Especially the original one pictured in the article and the version I played in 70/80's. If I wander by Candy Land in a store, I'll always pause to check out the art. I didn't like the later versions I saw. Too busy and saccharine.

ljf 6y ago
I understand that gradually the thinking is moving to it being more of a whole body issue than just a lung issue - and the NICE guidelines have just been updated I to refer to the longer term impacts - though so far they don't seem the same as polio, or as common. https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200712/First-extensive-review-of-COVID-19s-effects-on-all-affected-organs-outside-the-lungs.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200712/First-extensi... My wife had covid, and now nearly 4 months later is still ill. 3 people recently on her online group have been able to get EKGs (not ecg) and all have shown scarring of the heart. What this means for them remains to be seen, as does if this is at all common - this could be chance or we could see more people with longer term issues coming out of this. Gut feel, I'd guess that we might see as many serious long term effects as we see deaths - but there is a long way to go before we can prove or disprove that - I really hope I am wrong.
- klenwell 6y ago
  > Gut feel, I'd guess that we might see as many serious long term effects as we see deaths - but there is a long way to go before we can prove or disprove that - I really hope I am wrong. I hope you are wrong, too. But this is another one of the insidious aspects of this disease that I've read about myself. I'm sorry to hear your wife is still ill. I wish her a full recovery.

catalogia 6y ago

Polio crippled a ton of people that survived it. FDR, as well as one of my great-grandfathers, was in a wheelchair because of it. (I know some people have speculated that covid may have a lasting impact too, but nothing I've read suggests it's anything like what polio was. Post-polio syndrome effected somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-50% of polio survivors in the old data, 80+% in more modern data.)

vmception 6y ago
on the topic of COVID aftereffects, we just don't know. maybe it becomes a condition that promotes encephalitis more easily, as an hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only, making people catatonic for decades. that particular epidemic turned 5 million people into those in-stasis zombies, and just put into wards for the rest of the century as no permanent solution was ever found. the actual epidemic occurred during WWI and was paled in relevance by the 1918 influenza. But without that influenza it would have been the bigger issue on its own.
- catalogia 6y ago
  The problem with fear of the unknown is the set of the unknown is infinite. Maybe you are patient zero of a brand new super-influenza that's going to wipe out 90% of humanity. Is that hypothetical less likely to occur than some 'unforeseen consequences of covid' scenario? There are hundreds of viruses known to cause disease in humans and probably many times more that infect humans without currently causing disease. The potential for "we don't know, but what if..." scenarios is boundless.
  - vmception 6y ago
    the difference between you and I is that I am willing to entertain boundless theories in a highly iterative process of hypothesis, if there is some observation to support the hypothesis. the supporting work for any cognitive issue would be the known neural degenerative aspect of a COVID infection as well as the blood oxygen transportation deficiencies of a COVID infection. Its just enough to say "look over there" to focus efforts on repeatable studies for eventual peer review, because people might not be looking over there yet. Its just enough to not be surprised if a brain that isn't getting the same amount of oxygen and also part of an infected nervous system suddenly stops working in the expected way.