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I don't get the finance mindset, you don't have access to any of the information or actions that make the squiggly line of price go up or down. Deriving models
by friendlybus 6y ago
I don't get the finance mindset, you don't have access to any of the information or actions that make the squiggly line of price go up or down. Deriving models from natural phenomenon and applying them in a completely unrelated field looks to be a gamble no matter how you cut it.
We are all going into the unknown all the time, predicting the future is not a solvable problem, but you can train yourself to aim better from past attempts.
- 082349872349872 6y agoLiving is much closer to playing cards than to playing chess.
- friendlybus 6y agoCan you articulate that?
- 082349872349872 6y agoIn chess, one has perfect information and the game is deterministic. In cards, one is at the mercy of the deck and the distribution, so one plays according to the odds.
- heavenlyblue 6y agoOne has perfect information, but we don’t yet have a single machine that could evaluate all possible turns to be taken.
- friendlybus 6y agoChess is an old game. Starcraft is the updated version of chess, with build orders and hidden information. Starcraft retains the value of doing the right thing even when blind, and building up logical series of actions from past experience. I don't know if you get to choose between chess and cards. In Starcraft (and chess to a lesser degree) you still have risks in the unknown that can be mapped as a probability function. For a given build order you may know that the best unit is X, but there's still a chance your opponent produces a unit that is counter-valent to the optimal. In finance or cards you still have information about concrete events like ipo launch dates and cards have chips that are always shown and a number of cards remaining, that do not require probabilities to know or exploit. Which one takes more prominence depends on the task at hand. And if one is prominent, the other strategy is nestled inside and shrouds from above.
- ccvannorman 6y agoAlso in cards, you're often playing against other humans who are bluffing and lying in order to win, whereas this is not possible in a perfect information game like Chess.