4 ms·

Taiwan and Hong Kong couldn’t be more different though. Hong Kong legislature (heavily influenced by China) passed this law (edit: this turns out not to be true

Taiwan and Hong Kong couldn’t be more different though. Hong Kong legislature (heavily influenced by China) passed this law (edit: this turns out not to be true). Hong Kong is already part of China. You don’t have 200km of water to cross against a country that’s prepared for just that. There’s no TSMC. If it’s a dry run for Taiwan, it’s a really shitty one.

iliveinchina 6y ago
This is factually incorrect. China's legislature amended Hong Kong's constitution to add the new national security law precisely because the Hong Kong legislature - even under heavy influence by mainland China - was unable to pass it.
- peteretep 6y ago
  Sure. Regardless, legislative means were used, not force.
  - garmaine 6y ago
    Legislative means we’re not used. China had no legal authority to do what they did... but no one will stop them. You are correct to point out that force was not used (n/m the divisions of tanks that have been on the border), and Taiwan is different.
    - peteretep 6y ago
      > Legislative means were not used. China had no legal authority to do what they did You are in disagreement with the BBC on this point: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52765838 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52765838 > The Basic Law says Chinese laws can't be applied in Hong Kong unless they are listed in a section called Annex III - there are already a few listed there, mostly uncontroversial and around foreign policy. These laws can be introduced by decree - which means they bypass the city's parliament. Critics say the introduction of the law this way amounts to a breach of the "one country, two systems" principle, which is so important to Hong Kong - but clearly it is technically possible to do this.
      - garmaine 6y ago
        It is a breach of the one country, two systems non-interference pact which the handoff was conditional on, therefore not legal.
    - throwaway1997 6y ago
      The Central Government did have the authority under Article 18 of the basic law. Let's not kid ourselves here.
- throwaway1997 6y ago
  This is because Article 18 of the Basic Law of Hong Kong allows China to promulgate certain laws related to national security. Taiwan doesn't have this.
acdha 6y ago
Taiwan is much harder, but I was thinking more about precedent: if there is not much international blowback, that’s going to tell them that there won’t be major consequences if they try to ratchet Taiwan into their orbit. The U.S. provided a big shield to Taiwan for years but China has built up a lot and Trump has been ceding power as quickly as he can. It’s not clear to me that the other countries in the region or the EU would set a line and hold it for very long. The international businesses acquiescing to expansion in Hong Kong are probably setting the tone. Remember, this almost certainly wouldn’t just be a straight-up invasion. I’d assume something more like funding pro-China political parties, expanding business and other ties, and then at some point an incident involving a friendly politician asking for help which never leaves. TSMC is important but just one business and not one many people are going to go to war over when business is going to continue mostly as usual.
- lenkite 6y ago
  "US provided big shield to Taiwan...trump has been ceding power as quickly as he can". This is utterly false. Trump has further strengthened ties with Taiwan compared to the previous administrations. https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/trump-quietly-signs-legislation-strengthening-ties-to-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/trump-quietly-signs-legislat... He was also the first US president to speak with a Republic-of-China president. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Tsai_call https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Tsai_call

iliveinchina 6y ago

This is factually incorrect. China's legislature amended Hong Kong's constitution to add the new national security law precisely because the Hong Kong legislature - even under heavy influence by mainland China - was unable to pass it.

peteretep 6y ago
Sure. Regardless, legislative means were used, not force.
- garmaine 6y ago
  Legislative means we’re not used. China had no legal authority to do what they did... but no one will stop them. You are correct to point out that force was not used (n/m the divisions of tanks that have been on the border), and Taiwan is different.
  - peteretep 6y ago
    > Legislative means were not used. China had no legal authority to do what they did You are in disagreement with the BBC on this point: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52765838 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52765838 > The Basic Law says Chinese laws can't be applied in Hong Kong unless they are listed in a section called Annex III - there are already a few listed there, mostly uncontroversial and around foreign policy. These laws can be introduced by decree - which means they bypass the city's parliament. Critics say the introduction of the law this way amounts to a breach of the "one country, two systems" principle, which is so important to Hong Kong - but clearly it is technically possible to do this.
    - garmaine 6y ago
      It is a breach of the one country, two systems non-interference pact which the handoff was conditional on, therefore not legal.
  - throwaway1997 6y ago
    The Central Government did have the authority under Article 18 of the basic law. Let's not kid ourselves here.
throwaway1997 6y ago
This is because Article 18 of the Basic Law of Hong Kong allows China to promulgate certain laws related to national security. Taiwan doesn't have this.

acdha 6y ago

Taiwan is much harder, but I was thinking more about precedent: if there is not much international blowback, that’s going to tell them that there won’t be major consequences if they try to ratchet Taiwan into their orbit. The U.S. provided a big shield to Taiwan for years but China has built up a lot and Trump has been ceding power as quickly as he can. It’s not clear to me that the other countries in the region or the EU would set a line and hold it for very long. The international businesses acquiescing to expansion in Hong Kong are probably setting the tone. Remember, this almost certainly wouldn’t just be a straight-up invasion. I’d assume something more like funding pro-China political parties, expanding business and other ties, and then at some point an incident involving a friendly politician asking for help which never leaves. TSMC is important but just one business and not one many people are going to go to war over when business is going to continue mostly as usual.

lenkite 6y ago
"US provided big shield to Taiwan...trump has been ceding power as quickly as he can". This is utterly false. Trump has further strengthened ties with Taiwan compared to the previous administrations. https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/trump-quietly-signs-legislation-strengthening-ties-to-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/trump-quietly-signs-legislat... He was also the first US president to speak with a Republic-of-China president. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Tsai_call https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Tsai_call