4 ms·

32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments

49 points by claudeganon 6y ago

ve55 6y ago
Although this appears very alarming, it's also worth noting that due to covid it's allowed for them to defer payments for a bit, and that is included in this statistic.
- ganoushoreilly 6y ago
  I've had a few people I know put in for deferments simply because they were available. I'm going to be more concerned in 3 months or so when these options are off the table.
  - acwan93 6y ago
    I applied for a deferment on my existing mortgage (figured time in the market/savings would be better than paying the bills), but my mortgage broker cautioned that it could affect future refinances and loans since while the missed payments wouldn't affect my score, simply having the forbearance note on my account would be enough to spook a future lender.
- ahnick 6y ago
  So the payments get deferred, but if families aren't earning any money (e.g. lost job or furloughed) for these missed months, how will they catch back up? Where does the extra money come from?
  - boring_twenties 6y ago
    At least with a mortgage, couldn't it be reasonable to extend the entire payment schedule by 1/2/3 months?
    - ahnick 6y ago
      Yeah, that's my thinking as well. Maybe congress will pass a nationwide extension on home mortgages for some determined duration of the pandemic? Rent is less clear. Maybe something similar for the landlords and in return there is a moratorium on evictions?
    - videotopia 6y ago
      Agreed. This would make the most sense surely.
  - rayiner 6y ago
    The government is giving them an extra $2,400 a month. It’s taking some time to get distributed, but it’s going out.
- onetimemanytime 6y ago
  We'll find out soon the real numbers, but if you wait for a balloon payment, odds increase of not having the cash (when you have it you may spend it). Still this is a huge percentage, even if it's 10% that's enough to do some damage
- bigwavedave 6y ago
  It appears alarming because it's spun that way. Look at the actual survey the article references and you'll see 89% of missed first-week payments in June were paid in full with late payments. Basically, some people were late on their rent/mortgage payment last month, still ended up paying it in full, and CNBC wants to convince you that this means the payments missed in the first week of July won't be made at all; July isn't even halfway over and they want you to assume the worst. The article is misleading at best.
  - listenallyall 6y ago
    >> still ended up paying it in full with the help of $600 per adult per week from the gov't. what happens when/if the PUA subsidy is not extended beyond July 31?
    - mercer 6y ago
      Yeah, my impression is that there might be some major issues if the 'PUA subsidy' isn't extended, but I'd love to hear from people who know more about this. Anecdotally I've heard that there are a ton of people that won't be able to pay rent, commercial or personal. And part of the issue seems to be that some of them at least have to pay the rent for missing months too? Again, I don't know much about this so I hope I'm wrong.
nkurz 6y ago
The report for the underlying survey (which the CNBC article was kind enough to link) is very readable and contains additional useful information: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments The spin in the CNBC article about late payment seems misleading, or at least, not supported by the survey: CNBC: "Almost 90% of households had paid some or all of their rent or mortgage payment by the end of June. But with late fees tacked on, those households may be more likely to miss their next housing bill, perpetuating a vicious cycle." Apartment List: "It continues to be the case that the majority of payments missed in the first week of the month are made up with late payments. 89 percent of respondents reported that they had paid their June bill in full as of the first week of July. This is consistent with the end-of-month payment rate for prior months." Highlighting the differences, CNBC says respondents "paid some or all", while the actual survey claims that 89% of the overdue bills were paid "in full". CNBC points out that theoretically the added fees may create a vicious cycle, while Apartment List says that there is as yet no evidence of this. One useful datapoint that I didn't see mentioned in either article is the "base rate" for other years. What are the typical numbers for July in the years when there isn't a global pandemic? Does anyone have a source for this?
- listenallyall 6y ago
  >> 89 percent of respondents reported that they had paid their June bill in full I'd posit that a survey of payers likely understates delinquency rates. For one thing, it's a bit embarrassing to admit to a stranger that you cannot make your payments. Further, in today's surveillance state, why would anyone trust that the person asking a question is simply doing a survey? Many people might think the inquiry is coming from their landlord, bank, or some government agency (like INS) or secret police -- in which case they might not voluntarily admit that they are behind on their obligations.
tlack 6y ago
Does anyone have similar data for missed commercial lease or mortgage payments?
dutch3000 6y ago
one for misleading article title

49 points by claudeganon 6y ago

ve55 6y ago

Although this appears very alarming, it's also worth noting that due to covid it's allowed for them to defer payments for a bit, and that is included in this statistic.

ganoushoreilly 6y ago
I've had a few people I know put in for deferments simply because they were available. I'm going to be more concerned in 3 months or so when these options are off the table.
- acwan93 6y ago
  I applied for a deferment on my existing mortgage (figured time in the market/savings would be better than paying the bills), but my mortgage broker cautioned that it could affect future refinances and loans since while the missed payments wouldn't affect my score, simply having the forbearance note on my account would be enough to spook a future lender.
ahnick 6y ago
So the payments get deferred, but if families aren't earning any money (e.g. lost job or furloughed) for these missed months, how will they catch back up? Where does the extra money come from?
- boring_twenties 6y ago
  At least with a mortgage, couldn't it be reasonable to extend the entire payment schedule by 1/2/3 months?
  - ahnick 6y ago
    Yeah, that's my thinking as well. Maybe congress will pass a nationwide extension on home mortgages for some determined duration of the pandemic? Rent is less clear. Maybe something similar for the landlords and in return there is a moratorium on evictions?
  - videotopia 6y ago
    Agreed. This would make the most sense surely.
- rayiner 6y ago
  The government is giving them an extra $2,400 a month. It’s taking some time to get distributed, but it’s going out.
onetimemanytime 6y ago
We'll find out soon the real numbers, but if you wait for a balloon payment, odds increase of not having the cash (when you have it you may spend it). Still this is a huge percentage, even if it's 10% that's enough to do some damage
bigwavedave 6y ago
It appears alarming because it's spun that way. Look at the actual survey the article references and you'll see 89% of missed first-week payments in June were paid in full with late payments. Basically, some people were late on their rent/mortgage payment last month, still ended up paying it in full, and CNBC wants to convince you that this means the payments missed in the first week of July won't be made at all; July isn't even halfway over and they want you to assume the worst. The article is misleading at best.
- listenallyall 6y ago
  >> still ended up paying it in full with the help of $600 per adult per week from the gov't. what happens when/if the PUA subsidy is not extended beyond July 31?
  - mercer 6y ago
    Yeah, my impression is that there might be some major issues if the 'PUA subsidy' isn't extended, but I'd love to hear from people who know more about this. Anecdotally I've heard that there are a ton of people that won't be able to pay rent, commercial or personal. And part of the issue seems to be that some of them at least have to pay the rent for missing months too? Again, I don't know much about this so I hope I'm wrong.

nkurz 6y ago

The report for the underlying survey (which the CNBC article was kind enough to link) is very readable and contains additional useful information: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments The spin in the CNBC article about late payment seems misleading, or at least, not supported by the survey: CNBC: "Almost 90% of households had paid some or all of their rent or mortgage payment by the end of June. But with late fees tacked on, those households may be more likely to miss their next housing bill, perpetuating a vicious cycle." Apartment List: "It continues to be the case that the majority of payments missed in the first week of the month are made up with late payments. 89 percent of respondents reported that they had paid their June bill in full as of the first week of July. This is consistent with the end-of-month payment rate for prior months." Highlighting the differences, CNBC says respondents "paid some or all", while the actual survey claims that 89% of the overdue bills were paid "in full". CNBC points out that theoretically the added fees may create a vicious cycle, while Apartment List says that there is as yet no evidence of this. One useful datapoint that I didn't see mentioned in either article is the "base rate" for other years. What are the typical numbers for July in the years when there isn't a global pandemic? Does anyone have a source for this?

listenallyall 6y ago
>> 89 percent of respondents reported that they had paid their June bill in full I'd posit that a survey of payers likely understates delinquency rates. For one thing, it's a bit embarrassing to admit to a stranger that you cannot make your payments. Further, in today's surveillance state, why would anyone trust that the person asking a question is simply doing a survey? Many people might think the inquiry is coming from their landlord, bank, or some government agency (like INS) or secret police -- in which case they might not voluntarily admit that they are behind on their obligations.

tlack 6y ago

Does anyone have similar data for missed commercial lease or mortgage payments?

dutch3000 6y ago

one for misleading article title