4 ms·

Most trees alive today won’t survive in the climate expected 40 years from now

18 points by oftenwrong 6y ago

eloff 6y ago
> At the current pace of warming, much of the world will be inhospitable to forests as we know them within decades. The extinction of some tree species by direct or indirect action of drought and high temperatures is certain. And some recent research suggests that, in 40 years, none of the trees alive today will be able to survive the projected climate. That is so ridiculous. Temperatures within 40 years aren't going to change by much more than they've already changed over the past 100 years. Did most forests die off and vanish? No, in fact the extra C02 in the atmosphere, and warmer climate is beneficial for tree growth - if only we weren't clearing the forests we'd have more trees today. The earth has been hotter than where we're headed with global warming. It was heavily forested at that time. To be extra clear, none of that is saying global warming isn't a huge problem, just that forests dying off probably isn't the part to worry about. Articles like this do climate science a serious disservice and give people reason to doubt climate change - they're counter productive.
- lern_too_spel 6y ago
  > The earth has been hotter than where we're headed with global warming. It was heavily forested at that time. When Earth was that hot, it didn't get that hot so quickly, giving ecosystems time to adapt. This is the same reason coral reefs around the world have bleached and died. > No, in fact the extra C02 in the atmosphere, and warmer climate is beneficial for tree growth The paper discusses the impact of CO2. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/261/tab-pdf https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/261/tab-pdf
- pasabagi 6y ago
  I’m by no means an expert, but my understanding is that higher temperatures and unstable ecosystems stress trees out, rendering them susceptible to disease and predation. Anecdataly, this is very visible in my local forest, where about one in three trees are either dead or dying.
- Arnt 6y ago
  Most trees alive today were already alive 40 years ago; saying that they won't survive the temperature in 40 years is simply saying that the warning in the past 40 years has already used a large part of their tolerance. BTW, I wouldn't bet that temperatures will change only a little in the next 40 years, considering how many record temperatures we've had in the past ten.
  - eloff 6y ago
    We're warming about 0.2C per decade. So, even assuming that accelerates we're going from a current 1 C change since per-industrial times to 2 C change in average temperatures. I'm going to call that a little compared to what's coming over the next couple centuries.
- jryb 6y ago
  > That is so ridiculous. Temperatures within 40 years aren't going to change by much more than they've already changed over the past 100 years. What does the absolute change matter? Things have limits. If we observe that the temperature increases from 50°F in winter to 90°F in summer, we still shouldn't conclude that things would be fine if they increased another 40°F (I'm speaking purely by analogy here, not making any claim about climate change - I just can't think of a better analogy).
  - eloff 6y ago
    This is true, but the relative magnitude of the change does matter, and it's very low over the last century, just 1.0 F. Even if it goes up 2.0 F in the next 40 years, it's still a relatively small change that is not likely to reduce forest cover in any measurable way. I'd worry more about human activities that are reducing forest cover at a serious rate.
_jstreet 6y ago
Worrying news. There's a YouTuber - CodysLab (relevent video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sghWcjGYSxY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sghWcjGYSxY) - I watch that experienced this exact die-back with pinion-pines. It's interesting to see how a marginal increase in temperature can have huge impacts on the ecosystem, for example incests able to survive where previously they couldn't. I'd also be interested to see what the impact of a large number of tree's dying out would cause - growing up deforestation of the rainforest was a huge environmental issue (and continues to be).

18 points by oftenwrong 6y ago

> At the current pace of warming, much of the world will be inhospitable to forests as we know them within decades. The extinction of some tree species by direct or indirect action of drought and high temperatures is certain. And some recent research suggests that, in 40 years, none of the trees alive today will be able to survive the projected climate. That is so ridiculous. Temperatures within 40 years aren't going to change by much more than they've already changed over the past 100 years. Did most forests die off and vanish? No, in fact the extra C02 in the atmosphere, and warmer climate is beneficial for tree growth - if only we weren't clearing the forests we'd have more trees today. The earth has been hotter than where we're headed with global warming. It was heavily forested at that time. To be extra clear, none of that is saying global warming isn't a huge problem, just that forests dying off probably isn't the part to worry about. Articles like this do climate science a serious disservice and give people reason to doubt climate change - they're counter productive.

lern_too_spel 6y ago
> The earth has been hotter than where we're headed with global warming. It was heavily forested at that time. When Earth was that hot, it didn't get that hot so quickly, giving ecosystems time to adapt. This is the same reason coral reefs around the world have bleached and died. > No, in fact the extra C02 in the atmosphere, and warmer climate is beneficial for tree growth The paper discusses the impact of CO2. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/261/tab-pdf https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/261/tab-pdf
pasabagi 6y ago
I’m by no means an expert, but my understanding is that higher temperatures and unstable ecosystems stress trees out, rendering them susceptible to disease and predation. Anecdataly, this is very visible in my local forest, where about one in three trees are either dead or dying.
Arnt 6y ago
Most trees alive today were already alive 40 years ago; saying that they won't survive the temperature in 40 years is simply saying that the warning in the past 40 years has already used a large part of their tolerance. BTW, I wouldn't bet that temperatures will change only a little in the next 40 years, considering how many record temperatures we've had in the past ten.
- eloff 6y ago
  We're warming about 0.2C per decade. So, even assuming that accelerates we're going from a current 1 C change since per-industrial times to 2 C change in average temperatures. I'm going to call that a little compared to what's coming over the next couple centuries.
jryb 6y ago
> That is so ridiculous. Temperatures within 40 years aren't going to change by much more than they've already changed over the past 100 years. What does the absolute change matter? Things have limits. If we observe that the temperature increases from 50°F in winter to 90°F in summer, we still shouldn't conclude that things would be fine if they increased another 40°F (I'm speaking purely by analogy here, not making any claim about climate change - I just can't think of a better analogy).
- eloff 6y ago
  This is true, but the relative magnitude of the change does matter, and it's very low over the last century, just 1.0 F. Even if it goes up 2.0 F in the next 40 years, it's still a relatively small change that is not likely to reduce forest cover in any measurable way. I'd worry more about human activities that are reducing forest cover at a serious rate.

_jstreet 6y ago

Worrying news. There's a YouTuber - CodysLab (relevent video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sghWcjGYSxY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sghWcjGYSxY) - I watch that experienced this exact die-back with pinion-pines. It's interesting to see how a marginal increase in temperature can have huge impacts on the ecosystem, for example incests able to survive where previously they couldn't. I'd also be interested to see what the impact of a large number of tree's dying out would cause - growing up deforestation of the rainforest was a huge environmental issue (and continues to be).