I think you nailed it. Most name brand VC firms reputations are based on a couple of good decisions early in their careers. The time scales we're talking about

I think you nailed it. Most name brand VC firms reputations are based on a couple of good decisions early in their careers. The time scales we're talking about scream hindsight bias, and even in the best case where they made good decisions rather than got lucky, whatever cargo cult training baloney they come up with doesn't mean they will continue to make good decisions as they pass the torch to whatever MBA dipshits they dig up as successors.