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What do you mean “press delete”? China is not in a position to blackmail the US via financial means, not even in the slightest. If they sold their treasuries, t

by toxik 6y ago

What do you mean “press delete”? China is not in a position to blackmail the US via financial means, not even in the slightest. If they sold their treasuries, they would be bought in a heartbeat by others with a penchant for stable valuation.

baybal2 6y ago
> What do you mean “press delete”? I mean they would prohibit all vital operations of these companies in China. What would Apple do if China will give them a Huawei treatment? They wouldn't even be able to move away from China, if their Chinese suppliers would be told to cease doing business with Apple globally. Pretty much every globally prominent company dealing with light industries, manufacturing, electronics has some things in their products which they cannot reasonably expect to get elsewhere but in/from China. Second to that: check what you saw in the previous half of the year. A lot of living essentials are made almost solely in China. Would US elites be ready to deal with angry unwashed masses who, with some help, and incitement, would go torch their houses because they can't get not only their new Iphone, but basic medicines, clothing, car parts, basic household goods, widgets for their businesses, and such? Unless Americans are ready for that, they can't fight China, and the people in Beijing know it very well.
- toxik 6y ago
  Banning Apple means taking a hit to the economy, likewise for all the other industries you mention. The Chinese economy is just as dependent on Western economy as the reverse. Nobody wins when the world economy grinds to a halt. Especially not the exporter, the importers will just import from somebody else if conditions favor that.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    https://theconversation.com/we-estimate-china-only-makes-8-46-from-an-iphone-and-thats-why-trumps-trade-war-is-futile-99258 https://theconversation.com/we-estimate-china-only-makes-8-4... > We estimate China only makes $8.46 from an iPhone
- ericmay 6y ago
  > What would Apple do if China will give them a Huawei treatment? Well, all those people would instantly be out of a job for one. What Huawei factories in the US are being shut down? It's one thing to lose market access, it's another to lose jobs. > Pretty much every globally prominent company dealing with light industries, manufacturing, electronics has some things in their products which they cannot reasonably expect to get elsewhere but in/from China. Cheap is a better word here. There is not a single item in China that can't be replicated elsewhere in the world for consumer products. > A lot of living essentials are made almost solely in China. Because of cheapness, not because they can't be created elsewhere. Many countries can create these goods, including the U.S. > Unless Americans are ready for that, they can't fight China, and the people in Beijing know it very well. Americans might not be "ready" but they can definitely decouple with China if push comes to shove.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  What would Chinese companies do if half or more of their business suddenly dries up? Supplying the US is a major sector of China's economy, and the economic fallout of cutting that link will fall just as hard on China as it does on the US.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > What would Chinese companies do if half or more of their business suddenly dries up? Sell to another country at lower prices, and less profit than the can get from the US?
    - jcranmer 6y ago
      Who? Export substitution of non-fungible products is quite difficult.
- codekansas 6y ago
  Interestingly, this is basically by design. > No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree
  - ardy42 6y ago
    >> No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's. [0] > [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree It's worth noting that most of the wiki article is basically a list of counter-examples that proved that statement false. There have been a half-dozen wars between McDonald's-havers.
    - asa4akj 6y ago
      and only one of those examples is before the publishing year
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    And as noted in the Wikipedia article, this was disproved within months by NATO involvement in the Yugoslav Wars. It should also be noted that there were plenty of experts who would tell you that the world is now too economically intertwined to be able to support any major war between major powers... in 1914. Economic integration preventing global conflict has been disproven time and again in history.
- ardy42 6y ago
  > Second to that, as you saw in the previous half of the year. A lot of living essentials are made almost solely in China. Would US elites be ready to deal with angry unwashed masses who, with some help, and incitement, would go torch their houses because they can't get not only their new Iphone, but basic medicines, clothing, car parts, basic household goods, widgets for their businesses, and such? I don't think it'd play out like that. It's been a few generations, but Americans have experience with wartime rationing that was far more extreme. They didn't riot and demand a peace treaty with Hilter and Tojo, so they could could get the consumer goods they had been used to having. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing_in_the_United_States https://www.history.com/news/food-rationing-in-wartime-america https://www.history.com/news/food-rationing-in-wartime-ameri...
  - baybal2 6y ago
    This sentiment has logic to it. But, I don't see any US president standing for it before the election, or at least attempting to sell it to his electorate/funders, unless pretty much a hot war is happening. USA was the biggest industrial power by late thirties, and I think no country would've stood for Germany in the open on the global arena by then. The situation is more than a bit different now. Be hopeful that the politicians will be as logical as you are.
    - ardy42 6y ago
      > But, I don't see any US president standing for it before the election, or at least attempting to sell it to his electorate/funders, unless pretty much a hot war is happening. I don't think it would be a hard to sell the American public on some kind of rationing if Beijing suddenly embargoes the US in a way that necessitated it. Given the economic dependencies that you cite, I think a US-initiated decoupling would likely proceed slowly enough to not cause critical disruption, just higher prices.

by toxik 6y ago

baybal2 6y ago

> What do you mean “press delete”? I mean they would prohibit all vital operations of these companies in China. What would Apple do if China will give them a Huawei treatment? They wouldn't even be able to move away from China, if their Chinese suppliers would be told to cease doing business with Apple globally. Pretty much every globally prominent company dealing with light industries, manufacturing, electronics has some things in their products which they cannot reasonably expect to get elsewhere but in/from China. Second to that: check what you saw in the previous half of the year. A lot of living essentials are made almost solely in China. Would US elites be ready to deal with angry unwashed masses who, with some help, and incitement, would go torch their houses because they can't get not only their new Iphone, but basic medicines, clothing, car parts, basic household goods, widgets for their businesses, and such? Unless Americans are ready for that, they can't fight China, and the people in Beijing know it very well.

toxik 6y ago
Banning Apple means taking a hit to the economy, likewise for all the other industries you mention. The Chinese economy is just as dependent on Western economy as the reverse. Nobody wins when the world economy grinds to a halt. Especially not the exporter, the importers will just import from somebody else if conditions favor that.
- baybal2 6y ago
  https://theconversation.com/we-estimate-china-only-makes-8-46-from-an-iphone-and-thats-why-trumps-trade-war-is-futile-99258 https://theconversation.com/we-estimate-china-only-makes-8-4... > We estimate China only makes $8.46 from an iPhone
ericmay 6y ago
> What would Apple do if China will give them a Huawei treatment? Well, all those people would instantly be out of a job for one. What Huawei factories in the US are being shut down? It's one thing to lose market access, it's another to lose jobs. > Pretty much every globally prominent company dealing with light industries, manufacturing, electronics has some things in their products which they cannot reasonably expect to get elsewhere but in/from China. Cheap is a better word here. There is not a single item in China that can't be replicated elsewhere in the world for consumer products. > A lot of living essentials are made almost solely in China. Because of cheapness, not because they can't be created elsewhere. Many countries can create these goods, including the U.S. > Unless Americans are ready for that, they can't fight China, and the people in Beijing know it very well. Americans might not be "ready" but they can definitely decouple with China if push comes to shove.
jcranmer 6y ago
What would Chinese companies do if half or more of their business suddenly dries up? Supplying the US is a major sector of China's economy, and the economic fallout of cutting that link will fall just as hard on China as it does on the US.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > What would Chinese companies do if half or more of their business suddenly dries up? Sell to another country at lower prices, and less profit than the can get from the US?
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    Who? Export substitution of non-fungible products is quite difficult.
codekansas 6y ago
Interestingly, this is basically by design. > No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree
- ardy42 6y ago
  >> No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's. [0] > [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lexus_and_the_Olive_Tree It's worth noting that most of the wiki article is basically a list of counter-examples that proved that statement false. There have been a half-dozen wars between McDonald's-havers.
  - asa4akj 6y ago
    and only one of those examples is before the publishing year
- jcranmer 6y ago
  And as noted in the Wikipedia article, this was disproved within months by NATO involvement in the Yugoslav Wars. It should also be noted that there were plenty of experts who would tell you that the world is now too economically intertwined to be able to support any major war between major powers... in 1914. Economic integration preventing global conflict has been disproven time and again in history.
ardy42 6y ago
> Second to that, as you saw in the previous half of the year. A lot of living essentials are made almost solely in China. Would US elites be ready to deal with angry unwashed masses who, with some help, and incitement, would go torch their houses because they can't get not only their new Iphone, but basic medicines, clothing, car parts, basic household goods, widgets for their businesses, and such? I don't think it'd play out like that. It's been a few generations, but Americans have experience with wartime rationing that was far more extreme. They didn't riot and demand a peace treaty with Hilter and Tojo, so they could could get the consumer goods they had been used to having. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing_in_the_United_States https://www.history.com/news/food-rationing-in-wartime-america https://www.history.com/news/food-rationing-in-wartime-ameri...
- baybal2 6y ago
  This sentiment has logic to it. But, I don't see any US president standing for it before the election, or at least attempting to sell it to his electorate/funders, unless pretty much a hot war is happening. USA was the biggest industrial power by late thirties, and I think no country would've stood for Germany in the open on the global arena by then. The situation is more than a bit different now. Be hopeful that the politicians will be as logical as you are.
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > But, I don't see any US president standing for it before the election, or at least attempting to sell it to his electorate/funders, unless pretty much a hot war is happening. I don't think it would be a hard to sell the American public on some kind of rationing if Beijing suddenly embargoes the US in a way that necessitated it. Given the economic dependencies that you cite, I think a US-initiated decoupling would likely proceed slowly enough to not cause critical disruption, just higher prices.